WI Sen swing map

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

A thing I noticed: the north/south divide in the swing map for the Wisconsin Senate race aligns almost perfectly.



For reference, here's the presidential swing map:



Any rhyme or reason to this?

[Heisenberg]

President: It's literally only Dane, Milwaukee, and WOW swinging to Clinton and everything else (all rural or exburban) to Trump. Rural areas and the exburbs were Trump's strength, and the suburbs swung against Trump. With the inner cities, I guess they're swinging D because of younger votes who are more liberal than the already liberal older generations? Or maybe minorities?

Anyway, Ozaukee County was 64.6-34.3 Romney, and is now 55.8-37.0 Trump. While Trump lost a lot of votes from Romney, not all went to Clinton (she only did 2.7% better than Obama). Gary Johnson got 4% here, better than his national performance.
Washington County was a little different, changing from 69.5-29.4 Romney to 67.4-27.2 Trump. Trump only did 2.1% worse than Romney, and Clinton actually underpreformed by a little more. Like its neighbors, Gary Johnson went from 0.5 to 3.6, and Others went from 0.5 to 1.8.
And in Waukesha, the largest of the WOW counties, went from 66.8-32.3 Romney to 59.9-33.3 Trump. Donald lost 7%, but Hillary only gained 1%. Gary Johnson got 0.5% here in 2012, but 3.8% in 2016, a more than 3 point swing. (Write ins, McMullin, Castle, and Stein together got just under 3%.)

For Senate, I'm not too sure. But what I can tell you is that there were plenty of Trump/Feingold voters in Southwest Wisconsin, but Johnson countered that with Clinton/Johnson or Johnson/Johnson (hehe) voters in WOW.

[Vosem]

The Senate map is swing from 2010. The presidential map is swing from 2012. Democrats were much stronger in rural Wisconsin in 2012 than 2010, so you see Democratic swings in the first map but Republican swings in the second. That's the biggest difference; adding a little bit of color is that Trump was a bit stronger in the state's rural west while Johnson was a bit stronger in the WoW counties, but the biggest difference is that the maps are comparing two different years to 2016.

[Heisenberg]

The Senate map is swing from 2010. The presidential map is swing from 2012. Democrats were much stronger in rural Wisconsin in 2012 than 2010, so you see Democratic swings in the first map but Republican swings in the second. That's the biggest difference; adding a little bit of color is that Trump was a bit stronger in the state's rural west while Johnson was a bit stronger in the WoW counties, but the biggest difference is that the maps are comparing two different years to 2016.

(facepalm) I completely forgot that. In that respect, this is apples and oranges (swings from different years). That and my post sum it up.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The Senate map is swing from 2010. The presidential map is swing from 2012. Democrats were much stronger in rural Wisconsin in 2012 than 2010, so you see Democratic swings in the first map but Republican swings in the second. That's the biggest difference; adding a little bit of color is that Trump was a bit stronger in the state's rural west while Johnson was a bit stronger in the WoW counties, but the biggest difference is that the maps are comparing two different years to 2016.

Oh, yeah, I forgot that little detail.

I'm more interested in the north/south divide in the Senate race, though.  Maybe it's just a coincidence.

[Figueira]

I wonder what the swing map from the 2012 Senate race wouod look like. I know it's two different candidates.