UK local by-elections, 2017

[ObserverIE]

And so another year comes round...

Holy Word here.

Sunderland, Sandhill

Lib Dem 45.0 (+41.0)
Lab 25.0 (-30.0)
UKIP 18.7 (-7.2)
Con 10.0 (-2.4)
Green 1.3 (-1.3)

Three Rivers, Gade Valley

Lib Dem 60.9 (-0.8)
Con 19.1 (-6.2)
Lab 11.6 (-1.4)
UKIP 6.7 (+6.7)
Green 1.8 (+1.8)

Lib Dem gain Sandhill from Lab
Lib Dem gain Gade Valley from Con

[ag]

Hopefully, this is the good omen in the coming year for the last remaining sane party in England.

[joevsimp]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

[FredLindq]

Does not seem right according to the numbers that Lib Dems gain the second by election, more that they hold.

[YL]

Does not seem right according to the numbers that Lib Dems gain the second by election, more that they hold.

Gain is right.  It's a three member ward, with the three seats last contested in 2014 (LD win), 2015 (Con win) and 2016 (LD win).  The councillor who died was the Tory councillor elected in 2015, and the changes given are from 2016.

[Zinneke]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

Yeah, I doubt Sunderland voted to have 3 right-wing clowns negotiate their new relationship with the EU.

[ag]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

Well, they simply voted this time for the last English party that stands for anything and knows what it wants.

[Lord Halifax]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

Well, they simply voted this time for the last English party that stands for anything and knows what it wants.

The Greens?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly it just tells us that truly we have returned to normal; that the LibDems are distant enough from government that they can once again randomly win local polls all over the place based on anti dogsh!t campaigns or whatever. This was very common before 2010.

[Intell]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

Well, they simply voted this time for the last English party that stands for anything and knows what it wants.

lol.

[Tintrlvr]

What did happen in Sunderland, anyway? This isn't a snap back to pre-2010 voting patterns in the sense that the Lib Dems never had much of a presence in Sunderland, and zero presence in Sandhill ward. Even in 2004, pretty much the Lib Dem zenith UK-wide for local elections, they only had 2/75 seats in all of Sunderland and didn't even run in Sandhill. I'm sure some weird local issue, but it's probably interesting.

[ag]

Mostly it just tells us that truly we have returned to normal; that the LibDems are distant enough from government that they can once again randomly win local polls all over the place based on anti dogsh!t campaigns or whatever. This was very common before 2010.

May be. Or may be not

[ObserverIE]

Not so much a Holy Word as a Holy Syllable.

Bromsgrove, Norton

Con 43.2 (-16.6)
Lab 36.7 (+7.1)
UKIP 16.2 (+16.2)
Green 3.9 (-6.6)

[ag]

It is, rally, a long time since the LD have had similar strings of pick-ups. This would have been good even back in the days.

Consider the history from here

http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/

2017
So far, in 3 elections LD has picked up 2 seats for a total of 2 council members.

2016
290 election, 26 net LD pick-ups for a total of 51.

2015
236 elections, 2 LD pick-ups for a total of 19

2014
246 elections, 7 LD pick-ups for a total of 28

2013
334 elections, LD actually go down 4, to 38

2012
209 elections, LD gain 5 to 33

2011
169 elections, LD loose 3 to 24

2010
243 elections, LD gain 4 to 47

2009 (right before they got into the government - last time something remotely comparable)
274 elections, LD gain 18 to 68

2008
247 elections, LD gain 2 to 54

2007
198 elections, LD gain 1 to 41

2006
269 elections, LD gain 17 to 64

2005
332 elections, LD gain 12 to 78

2004
252 elections, LD gain 8 to 68

2003
161 elections, LD gain 17 to 50

2002 (the last time they had bigger gains then in 2016)
249 elections, LD gain 32 to 69

2001
382 elections, LD gain 2 to 71

[ag]

Now, by month (the numbers do not coincide, I need to see what I am missing)

Jan 2017 (so far) LD gain 2 to make it 2
Dec 2016 LD gain 6 to make it 8
Nov 2016 LD gain 2, lose 1 to make it 4
Oct 2016 LD gain 7 to make it 10
Sept 2016 LD gain 13 to make it 18
Aug 2016 LD gain 3 to make it 4
July 2016 LD gain 7 to make it 7
June 2016 post-brexit LD gain 1 to make it 1
June 2016 pre-brexit LD gain 1 to make it 3
May 2016 LD gain 2 to make it 3 (out of a huge number of elections)
April 2016 LD gain 1 to make it 2 (few elections)
March 2016 LD gain 3, lose 1 to make it 2
Feb 2016 LD gain 4, lose 4 to remain at 8
Jan 2016, LD gain 2 to make it 3
Dec 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 5
Nov 2015 LD lose 1 to make it 4
Oct 2015 LD gain 2, lose 2 to remain at 4
Sept. 2015 LD gain 2 to make it 2
Aug 2015 LD gain 3 to make it 3
July 2015 LD gain 6 to make it 7
June 2015 LD gain 4 lose 1 to make it 6
May 2015 LD lose 1 to make it 2 (huge number of elections)
April 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 1 (few elections)
March 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 1 (few elections)
February 2015 no gains, losses or seats (few elections)
January 2015 no gains, losses or seats (few elections)
December 2014 LD gain 1 to make it 1
November 2014 LD gain 1, lose 1 to make it 1

[ObserverIE]

Another Holy Syllable

East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock East and Hurlford

SNP 48.7 (+2.0)
Lab 29.4 (-16.6)
Con 20.1 (+12.7)
Lbt 1.8 (+1.8)

SNP	1461	1471	1531
Lab	881	893	1122
Con	602	608
Lbt	53

SNP hold Kilmarnock East and Hurlford

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

East Staffordshire, Town

Con 52.3 (+0.6)
Lab 29.9 (-2.9)
UKIP 17.8 (+17.8)

Rotherham, Brinsworth and Catcliffe

Lib Dem 66.0 (+48.7)
Lab 17.1 (-20.2)
UKIP 12.8 (-19.5)
Con 3.0 (-10.0)
Green 1.0 (+1.0)

Rotherham, Dinnington

Lab 36.1 (+9.1)
UKIP 16.3 (-10.6)
Con 12.8 (-1.7)
Ind Smith 12.5
Ind Hart 9.7
Ind Scott 4.4
Green 4.2 (-7.0)
Lib Dem 4.0 (+4.0)

Lib Dem gain Brinsworth and Catcliffe from Lab
Lab gain Dinnington from UKIP

[YL]

Rotherham, Brinsworth and Catcliffe

Lib Dem 66.0 (+48.7)
Lab 17.1 (-20.2)
UKIP 12.8 (-19.5)
Con 3.0 (-10.0)
Green 1.0 (+1.0)

Rotherham, Dinnington

Lab 36.1 (+9.1)
UKIP 16.3 (-10.6)
Con 12.8 (-1.7)
Ind Smith 12.5
Ind Hart 9.7
Ind Scott 4.4
Green 4.2 (-7.0)
Lib Dem 4.0 (+4.0)

Lib Dem gain Brinsworth and Catcliffe from Lab
Lab gain Dinnington from UKIP

Let's start with the good news for Labour: giving UKIP a good beating in Dinnington.

As for Brinsworth & Catcliffe, there were some hints that the Lib Dems were going to win (or at least come close) but the scale of the victory (and the high -- for a local by-election on a grim winter day -- turnout) is pretty astonishing.  The Lib Dems hadn't won a seat on Rotherham council since 2000.  The ward has mixed political history including electing a BNP councillor in 2008 (whose tenure was embarrassing even by their standards) but sticking with Labour in their 2014 Rotherham disaster; it did however elect one UKIP councillor in the 2016 all-ups together with two Labour councillors.

I would note the circumstances of the by-election.  Given them, the issues with the party in the borough, and the ward's history, that Labour lost doesn't seem particularly surprising; that it was to the Lib Dems in a landslide rather than to UKIP in a close result does.

The Lib Dem winner is a local doctor; that's often going to be a good way of getting a personal vote going.

[ag]

LD are continuing their roll

I mean, it is all local cases: just lots of local coincidences

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Cotswold, Fairford North

Lib Dem 68.1 (+40.3)
Con 30.1 (-21.0)
Green 1.8 (+1.8)

North Norfolk, Waterside

Lib Dem 55.1 (+28.7)
Con 34.8 (-7.6)
UKIP 6.5 (-15.6)
Lab 3.5 (-5.6)

Corby, Kingswood and Hazel Leys

Lab 64.6 (+9.2)
Con 26.7 (+14.0)
Green 8.7 (-0.5)

Tendring, Great and Little Oakley

UKIP 36.8 (+14.1)
Con 29.1 (+1.4)
Lab 19.9 (+5.5)
Lib Dem 14.1 (+14.1)

Fylde, St John's

Ratepayer 60.8 (+19.1)
Con 30.0 (+5.1)
Lab 4.9 (-10.1)
Green 4.3 (+4.3)

Lib Dem gain Fairford North from Con
Lib Dem gain Waterside from Con
UKIP gain Great and Little Oakley from Ind

[ag]

Just a few more very local races, I guess. Right?

[ObserverIE]

Just a few more very local races, I guess. Right?

North Norfolk is a Lib Dem seat, Cotswold one where they form the main opposition to an unpopular local Tory administration. Their results can still be patchy - look at the two seats in Rotherham last week for an example, as well as the seats they're not contesting at all.

My hunch is that they're heading back to the mid-teens in terms of support and passing out UKIP in the process, but we won't really see any conclusive evidence until the local elections in May.

[IceAgeComing]

There's also the fact that in the past the Libs have sometimes done very well in local elections even in places where they've never challenged during a general election; but lots of that support disappears before a General Election.  That's a pretty constant trend: in the mid 90s in the dying embers of the Major government the projected national share of the vote at every local election (this is basically taking the data from local election results and doing something to it to produce what those results would suggest the national picture would be; can't claim to understand exactly what) had the Lib Dems in the mid 20s: indeed in 1996 they even passed the Tories in terms of the number of Councillors that they had.  In 1997; they got 16% of the vote which was down from 1997 - they did gain a load of seats but that was all in places where Labour hadn't a hope in hell even in 1997; in places where Labour were competitive they went nowhere even losing a few seats that they'd held for years.  The other results we have for the Lib Dems are less rosy though: in the Scottish Parliament elections they went no where and finished behind the Greens; in the Welsh Assembly election they went backwards and lost all of their list seats to UKIP.  Now that was all before the Brexit referendum and I think that now they'd do better, but its not a great sign for them that in the closest thing to a General Election - at least in terms of how much people actually care about it - they've gone nowhere.

[Phony Moderate]

And of course there's little evidence of a Brexit backlash in those other three contests. Of course there isn't much in the other two either, unless you take the view that any Lib Dem success from now on is down entirely to Brexit (which may have some merit to it...I mean what other reason is there to vote for a party led by Farron the Bible Basher?).

[ag]

And of course there's little evidence of a Brexit backlash in those other three contests. Of course there isn't much in the other two either, unless you take the view that any Lib Dem success from now on is down entirely to Brexit (which may have some merit to it...I mean what other reason is there to vote for a party led by Farron the Bible Basher?).

Considering they did not even have a candidate in two of those, and came from nowhere to a respectable result in the third...

It is not the matter of a backlash per se. It is the matter that they are the only coherently anti-Brexit party in England. Labour has chosen to drop out of being actual opposition on the most important issue out there. LibDems have the field to themselves: nobody else is playing on it. Sure, in most places it is not a majority position. But UK is an FPTP country, you do not need a majority to win anywhere, just a plurality. Three parties (Con, Lab and UKIP) are now occupying an ideologically similar position on the most important issue - while hating each other for other reasons. This may play marvels with suspending the usual incentives for strategic voting. And if that happens, we are in the world of marvellous unpredictability.

Of course, this is not the case in Scotland. The dominant party there is pro-European (the majoritarian view in the country, anyway). There is no reason to vote for LD there (unless you happen to be both pro-EU and pro-UK at the same time - a position that, I am afraid, will be becoming increasingly desperate in the coming years). Time to acknowledge that England and Scotland are different countries, with different political systems and divergent political dynamics.