UK local by-elections, 2017

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Durham, Dawden

Lab 52.3 (+4.9)
Seaham Comm 47.7 (+13.3)

Waltham Forest, William Morris

Lab 68.4 (+10.2)
Green 18.6 (+0.9)
Con 13.0 (+6.7)

Eastleigh, Hedge End Grange Park

Lib Dem 56.5 (+15.5)
Con 26.7 (-10.9)
Lab 12.2 (+1.0)
Green 3.5 (+3.5)
UKIP 1.2 (-8.9)

West Lancashire, Derby

Our West Lancs 42.4 (+0.6)
Lab 35.8 (-1.0)
Con 21.8 (+4.2)

Our West Lancs gain Derby from Con

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word.

Middlesbrough, Ayresome

Lab 59.7 (+14.3)
Con 36.3 (+21.7)
Lib Dem 2.2 (+2.2)
Green 1.9 (+1.9)

Middlesbrough, Park End and Breckfield

Ind 56.9 (+3.2)
Lab 34.0 (-3.6)
Con 6.6 (-2.1)
Green 1.4 (+1.4)
Lib Dem 1.1 (+1.1)

North Warwickshire, Coleshill South

Con 60.1 (+14.2)
Lab 39.9 (+5.3)

Three Rivers, Chorleywood South and Maple Cross

Lib Dem 63.7 (+4.6)
Con 26.6 (-2.0)
Lab 7.2 (+0.1)
UKIP 1.2 (-4.0)
Green 1.2 (+1.2)

South Oxfordshire, Didcot South

Lab 43.6 (+13.1)
Con 36.5 (+3.7)
Lib Dem 20.0 (+3.3)

South Oxfordshire, Didcot West

Con 43.2 (+3.5)
Lab 39.5 (+13.5)
Lib Dem 17.3 (+0.8)

Moray, Elgin City South

Con 40.0 (+7.0)
SNP 38.8 (+6.1)
Lab 15.8 (+3.8)
Ind 5.4

Con	923	970	1061
SNP	895	904	994
Lab	365	389
Ind	124

Lab hold Didcot South
Con gain Elgin City North from Ind

[YL]

As ObserverIE doesn't seem to be around:

Holy Word here.

and copying and pasting the results from BritainElects's Twitter:

Eden, Alston Moor: LAB: 55.8% (+55.8) CON: 34.7% (-10.7) IND: 7.8% (+7.8) GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Labour gain from Liberal Democrat (who didn't contest).

Knowsley, St. Michaels: no result yet (but it's Knowsley, we're not on tenterhooks)

Merton, St Helier: LAB: 74.1% (+3.1) CON: 15.6% (+1.7) LDEM: 4.8% (+1.9) GRN: 3.0% (+0.3) UKIP: 2.5% (-7.0)
Labour hold.

Rutland, Ketton: CON: 68.8% (+12.7) LDEM: 31.2% (+4.2)
Conservative hold

Rutland, Whissendine: IND (I. Arnold): 54.1% (+54.1) CON: 26.0% (-0.8) IND: 11.7% (+11.7) LDEM: 8.2% (-56.9)
Independent gain from Liberal Democrat

Shepway, New Romney: CON: 35.2% (+6.2) LAB: 32.5% (+21.5) IND: 27.5% (+27.5) LDEM: 4.8% (-3.7)
Conservative hold

Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek East: LAB: 45.0% (+25.6) CON: 28.9% (+1.1) IND: 19.5% (+19.5) LDEM: 6.6% (+0.7)
Labour gain from Conservative

Stockton, Billingham North: LAB 40.5% (+5.3) CON 38.7% (+19.0) IND 11.0% (+11.0) LD 5.3% (+5.3) North East Party 4.5% (+4.5)
Labour hold.

Wealden, Chiddingly & East Hoathly: no figures yet, but Conservative hold.

[YL]

Two very impressive Labour results at opposite ends of the Pennines.

Alston in particular, in spite of the local mining heritage, doesn't seem like the sort of place I'd expect to be electing Labour councillors, though it does seem like the sort of place which is capable of odd-looking results that you have to be local to understand.  They did also win the local county council division, though with a much lower vote share.

[ObserverIE]

Apologies for the belated posting.

Merton, St Helier (changes in italics since May 2016 by-election)

Lab 75.4 (+16.8) (+4.4)
Con 15.9 (+1.7) (+2.0)
Lib Dem 4.9 (-1.5) (+2.0)
Green 3.1 (+3.1) (+0.4)
UKIP 0.8 (-20.0) (-8.6)

Stockton-on-Tees, Billingham North

Lab 40.5 (+5.0)
Con 38.7 (+19.5)
Ind 11.0 (-13.2)
Lib Dem 5.3 (+5.3)
Green 4.5 (+4.5)

Rutland, Ketton

Con 68.8 (+15.4)
Lib Dem 31.2 (+2.5)

Rutland, Whissendine (changes in italics since March 2016 by-election)

Ind Arnold 54.1
Con 26.0 (-8.1) (-0.8)
Ind Lammin 11.7
Lib Dem 8.2 (-57.7) (-56.9)

Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek East

Lab 45.0 (+24.7)
Con 28.9 (+3.3)
Ind 19.5
Lib Dem 6.6 (+0.2)

Eden, Alston Moor (changes in italics since August 2016 by-election)

Lab 55.8 (+55.8) (+55.8)
Con 34.7 (-11.0) (-10.7)
Ind 7.8
Green 1.8 (+1.8) (+1.8)

Knowsley, St Michael's

Lab 86.6 (+12.5)
Lib Dem 7.0 (+7.0)
Green 6.4 (+6.4)

Wealden, Chiddingly and East Hoathly

Con 53.4 (-11.2)
Lab 28.3 (+9.4)
Lib Dem 18.3 (+18.3)

Shepway, New Romney

Con 35.4 (+6.3)
Lab 32.7 (+21.3)
Ind 27.0 (+10.1)
Lib Dem 4.8 (-4.0)

Ind gain Whissendine from Lib Dem
Lab gain Leek East from Con
Lab gain Alston Moor from Lib Dem

[ObserverIE]

The UKIP vote in this set of by-elections fell from 4,033.5 at the last equivalent all-out elections to 15 this time.

We may clutch our consolations about the state of British politics wherever we can find them.

[Leftbehind]

The UKIP vote in this set of by-elections fell from 4,033.5 at the last equivalent all-out elections to 15 this time.

We may clutch our consolations about the state of British politics wherever we can find them.

Only because they're indistinguishable from the present Tory party.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

West Lindsey, Scotter and Blyton

Con 44.0 (+11.1)
Lib Dem 35.1 (+11.1)
Lab 14.6 (-1.7)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)

Manchester, Fallowfield

Lab 76.9 (+5.7)
Green 9.4 (-5.6)
Lib Dem 7.3 (+2.7)
Con 6.4 (-0.9)

North Dorset, Blandford Central

Con 36.6 (+18.9)
Lab 36.3 (+24.7)
Lib Dem 27.1 (-1.0)

Con gain Blandford Central from Ind

[ObserverIE]

Holy word here.

Charnwood, Loughborough Shelthorpe

Lab 45.5 (+4.7)
Con 45.2 (+2.7)
Lib Dem 7.1 (+7.1)
UKIP 2.2 (+2.2)

Thanet, Margate Central

Lab 57.5 (+26.3)
Con 24.1 (+4.0)
UKIP 6.6 (-25.9)
Lib Dem 4.2 (+4.2)
Green 2.9 (-7.4)
Ind McCastree 3.0
Ind Rees 1.6

Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone

Con 58.8 (+5.5)
Lib Dem 34.0 (+0.2)
Lab 7.2 (+7.2)

Worthing, Marine

Lab 47.4 (+27.9)
Con 38.8 (-6.4)
Lib Dem 11.3 (+1.1)
Green 2.5 (-6.2)

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas

Con 36.2 (-5.7)
Lab 30.0 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 24.7 (+24.7)
Green 9.0 (-12.9)

Swale, Milton Regis

Lab 53.8 (+26.2)
Con 23.9 (-10.4)
UKIP 14.2 (-15.1)
Lib Dem 8.1 (-0.7)

Lab hold Loughborough Shelthorpe
Lab gain Margate Central from UKIP
Lab gain Marine from Con
Con gain St Margarets with St Nicholas from Lab
Lab gain Milton Regis from UKIP

[Leftbehind]

Some strong results for Labour in these past weeks.

[FrancoAgo]

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas

Con 36.2 (-5.7)
Lab 30.0 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 24.7 (+24.7)
Green 9.0 (-12.9)




Con gain St Margarets with St Nicholas from Lab

If the tories had, in the past election, 41,9 and lab 36,2 this is not a Con gain, or there is some wrong

[Leftbehind]

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas

Con 36.2 (-5.7)
Lab 30.0 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 24.7 (+24.7)
Green 9.0 (-12.9)



Con gain St Margarets with St Nicholas from Lab

If the tories had, in the past election, 41,9 and lab 36,2 this is not a Con gain, or there is some wrong

Multi member ward - see below (provided by our very own Andrew Teale):

Code:

Lesley Bambridg C 	714 	42.8%
Claire Kittow 	Lab 	554 	33.2%
Andrew Wilson 	C 	531 	
Kelly Terrey 	Lab 	523 	
Robert Archer 	Grn 	402 	24.1%
Jonathan Burr 	Grn 	250 	

You'll see Labour won the 2nd seat in 2015, but have subsequently lost it in this by-election.

[FrancoAgo]

Multi member ward - see below (provided by our very own Andrew Teale):

Code:

Lesley Bambridg C 	714 	42.8%
Claire Kittow 	Lab 	554 	33.2%
Andrew Wilson 	C 	531 	
Kelly Terrey 	Lab 	523 	
Robert Archer 	Grn 	402 	24.1%
Jonathan Burr 	Grn 	250 	

You'll see Labour won the 2nd seat in 2015, but have subsequently lost it in this by-election.

Thank you for the explain

[ObserverIE]

Just to clarify - I specify the result (e.g. "Con hold", "Lab gain from UKIP") either:

• when there's a change, or
• when the figures would otherwise be deceptive (e.g. a split multi-member ward where the party defending the seat did not have the largest average vote or Scottish by-elections which are held under STV).

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word

Forest Heath, St Mary's

Con 50.1 (+5.0)
Lab 40.9 (+12.4)
Green 8.9 (+8.9)

Aylesbury Vale, Riverside

Con 34.7 (+4.6)
Lib Dem 32.9 (+16.1)
Lab 24.2 (+4.5)
UKIP 5.5 (-27.9)
Green 2.6 (+2.6)

Aylesbury Vale, Southcourt

Lib Dem 37.3 (+9.6)
Con 31.5 (+7.2)
Lab 22.1 (+0.6)
Green 4.7 (-0.6)
UKIP 4.4 (-16.9)

Peterborough, Park

Lab 49.6 (+9.9)
Con 39.8 (+2.2)
UKIP 5.1 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 3.2 (-1.1)
Green 2.4 (-6.9)

Con hold Riverside

[ObserverIE]

Early Holy Word

Scarborough, Mulgrave

Con 46.5 (+12.2)
Lab 35.2 (+18.4)
Ind 13.9 (-3.4)
Yorks 4.4 (+4.4)

[ObserverIE]

Second chapter of the Holy Word here.

North Somerset, Weston-super-Mare North Worle

Lab 36.4 (+21.4)
Con 32.4 (+6.1)
Lib Dem 16.4 (+3.8)
Ind 8.2
UKIP 6.7 (-15.2)

Lab gain Weston-super-Mare North Worle from North Somerset First

[Tetro Kornbluth]

As I stated elsewhere, Labour seem to be doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places. This has been a pattern observed in the GE (although not consistently) and is continuing in the local by-election results.

[IceAgeComing]

It isn't that surprising when you think about it - these are places that historically were relatively affluent but reliant on seasonal work, and the latter has declined very sharply since then and many of these places have serious economic problems that aren't being addressed by the government.  My Dad's family comes from the Isle of Wight (which swung to the Tories in the last election, although Labour had their best result for an incredibly long time - it also has a very large counter-culture element that isn't present in many of the other seats) and in some of the more traditional seaside places (especially Sandown) the decline is very evident even in the last few years - although other villages on the island like Ventnor seem to be doing a lot better for whatever reason.

The big talking point about places like Rotherham and the north was that UKIP were like a 'gateway drug' or whatever; a first step for life-long Labour voters in their path to voting Tory.  At the risk of sounding like a bit of an idiot in the future when this doesn't happen - but maybe in these places the reverse may have happened to some extent?  The problem with this is that the seaside places in which Labour did best in were the ones which had a less strong UKIP vote which suggests that is totally wrong... 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, that isn't surprising except in the context where that vote was always dormant for Labour (and hasn't taken off everything, Labour did note their best performance in Torbay since 1979 but were still a very distant third, and failed to take Morecambe and Blackpool North)... and the effect is weak and reversed in mostly heavily Brexit places with little tourism but where the dead go to die, like Clacton.

(Btw I was going to write a longer post but then got distracted but I did have a look at the deprivation stats and I'm now curious as to why the Conservatives seemingly overperform in Northampton).

[vileplume]

As I stated elsewhere, Labour seem to be doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places. This has been a pattern observed in the GE (although not consistently) and is continuing in the local by-election results.

Yes they do. I think if Labour win a majority next time around it will be because they perform extremely strongly in deprived areas (particularly seaside towns). This is because in these places lot of the Tory vote will have once voted UKIP and could probably be won over on a populist platform.

Whilst on the other hand I think Labour will struggle much more in target seats that are more suburban/commuterland where the Tory vote is much more solid 'true blue' and almost uniformly despises Corbyn. An example would be somewhere like Macclesfield. Labour is strong in the town itself but weak in the rest of the seat which is mostly wealthy commuter towns and villages. Bar a big Lib Dem recovery at the expense of the Tories I struggle to see where Labour would get the votes to win there.

As for the seats Labour lost to the Tories this time I think the likes of Mansfield and Walsall North (both very populist places) will definitely be easy to win back for a Corbynite Labour party on it's way to victory, whilst North East Derbyshire may well be much harder to regain given it is more suburban/commuter territory in character.

This character may also play out in Kent and Essex with a Corbynite Labour party on its way to national victory performing strongly in the places on the coast/estuary further away from London with a tourism heritage like Southend and Thanet yet more weakly in the more suburban areas closer to the capital like Dartford, Gravesend and Basildon.

[ObserverIE]

Bumper Holy Word here.

Lancaster, Skerton West

Lab 61.5 (+26.6)
Con 34.6 (+7.8)
Lib Dem 4.0 (+4.0)

North Lanarkshire, Fortissat

Lab 38.5 (+2.0)
BUSP 23.3 (+12.2)
SNP 20.6 (-8.5)
Con 11.5 (-1.8)
Ind 5.0 (-5.1)
Green 0.7 (+0.7)
UKIP 0.5 (+0.5)

Lab	1420	1421	1426	1466	1546	1827
BUSP	858	865	867	913	1088	1139
SNP	761	762	770	791	804
Con	424	427	428	459
Ind	184	184	188
Green	24	26
UKIP	18

East Cambridgeshire, Ely South

Lib Dem 39.9 (+13.8)
Con 31.1 (-21.9)
Lab 29.0 (+8.1)

Peterborough, Eye, Thorney and Newborough

Con 52.3 (+19.8)
Lab 28.5 (+18.1)
UKIP 14.3 (-8.4)
Green 3.1 (-7.8)
Lib Dem 1.8 (+1.8)

Glasgow, Cardonald

Lab 48.6 (+11.2)
SNP 36.7 (-7.2)
Con 10.3 (-1.3)
Green 2.7 (+0.2)
Lib Dem 1.5 (-0.4)
Lbt 0.2 (+0.2)

Lab	2614	2615	2641	2683	2936
SNP	1972	1972	1981	2066	2101
Con	552	554	566	574
Green	147	151	161
Lib Dem	80	82
Lbt	12

Babergh, Sudbury South

Lab 42.7 (+19.7)
Con 42.6 (+13.2)
Lib Dem 14.7 (+3.0)

Croydon, South Norwood

Lab 59.0 (+6.1)
Con 16.8 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 13.7 (+7.9)
Green 7.7 (-3.2)
UKIP 2.8 (-8.2)

Suffolk, St John's

Lab 62.9 (+5.3)
Con 24.4 (-7.3)
Lib Dem 10.1 (+5.1)
Green 2.6 (-3.1)

Lewes, Ouse Valley and Ringmer

Green 38.7 (+20.3)
Con 30.6 (+3.8)
Lib Dem 21.2 (-5.5)
Lab 7.7 (-5.9)
UKIP 1.8 (-13.0)

Colchester, Shrub End

Con 38.6 (+17.2)
Lab 32.4 (+19.1)
Lib Dem 21.1 (-7.4)
Ind 3.1
UKIP 2.9 (-13.0)
Green 1.9 (-4.3)

Cannock Chase, Hednesford Green Heath

Lab 43.9 (+11.1)
Con 36.8 (-3.7)
Green 10.5 (+7.4)
Chase Ind 5.1 (-0.2)
UKIP 3.5 (-14.7)

Cannock Chase, Hednesford South

Green 48.3 (+5.7)
Con 29.3 (+7.1)
Lab 17.9 (-2.7)
UKIP 4.5 (-10.2)

Staffordshire, Hednesford and Rawnsley

Con 32.5 (-4.1)
Lab 31.9 (+4.4)
Green 28.9 (+4.3)
UKIP 3.8 (-4.3)
Lib Dem 1.5 (+1.5)
Chase Ind 1.4 (-1.7)

Herefordshire, Golden Valley South

Ind Jinman 42.7
Con 23.5 (-42.3)
Ind Baker 14.1
Green 10.1 (-7.1)
Lab 9.6 (+9.6)

Lab gain Fortissat from Con
Lib Dem gain Ely South from Con
Lab hold Cardonald
Lab gain Sudbury South from Con
Green gain Ouse Valley and Ringmer from Con
Con gain Shrub End from Lib Dem
Lab gain Hednesford Green Heath from Con
Green gain Hednesford South from Con
Ind gain Golden Valley South from Con

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the likes of Mansfield and Walsall North (both very populist places) will definitely be easy to win back for a Corbynite Labour party on it's way to victory

Bluntly, both seats were largely lost because of their incumbents.

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

[vileplume]

I think the likes of Mansfield and Walsall North (both very populist places) will definitely be easy to win back for a Corbynite Labour party on it's way to victory

Bluntly, both seats were largely lost because of their incumbents.

There is simply no evidence for that especially for Walsall North where the Tory majority was over 2,500 which is miles outside the range for a standard personal vote.

Personal votes rarely make much of a difference either way unless the MP is extremely popular/good at casework or is extremely controversial or gaffe/scandal prone. Neither of this is true for either of these MPs. Most MPs (including the former MPs for Walsall North and Mansfield) have small positive personal votes simply because of name recognition. Thus if Winnick and Meale had retired instead of defending their seats the Tory majority would likely be a couple of hundred higher in both.

In short the Tories won Walsall North and Mansfield primarily due to Brexit and the high leave votes in these seats. Their campaign tactic of 'citizens of nowhere' directly targeted these types of voters. Look at the swings in other Labour seats with very high leave votes and you'll see the swings to the Tories in Walsall North and Mansfield are roughly in line with these.

The incumbents had nothing to do with why the Tories gained those seats I'm afraid.