Mississippi Megathread 2.0

[gespb19]

Probably time for a new thread, old thread is centered mostly around 2015 discussion.

State Rep. Toby Barker (R-Hattiesburg) announced his run for mayor of Hattiesburg today. If he wins, it'll trigger a special election in HD102. Tough to get an exact estimate on how this district voted in November (split precincts), but after looking at the SOS site, I'd say Clinton won something like 53-42-5. The current makeup of the House is 74R-48D, so the GOP supermajority would be on the line in a hypothetical special election.

[Del Tachi]

Could you realistically handicap Barker's chances in the Mayor's race?  Do you think he stands a decent chance?  Local politics is still very Democratic in Hattiesburg IIRC

There's no special election if Barker loses the mayor's race


To talk about other political happenings across the state, Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D) has a $60,000 war chest and no serious opposition (and is in fact endorsed by many of the city's top Republicans, including his 2013 opponent).   This guy has serious statewide potential, but he's the kind of moderate, pro-development type Democrat that Forum Democrats loathe.  I'm calling him the Tommy Battle of Mississippi.

In Starkville, 36 year old Mayor Parker Wiseman is not seeking reelection.  This is somewhat of a surprise, as Wiseman was young, stood very good chances of reelection, and was regularly toted as a candidate for higher office down the road.  Word is he's got a good gig lined-up with one of the larger law firms in Jackson.  Former Starkville city administrator and local property manger Lynn Spruill (D) is largely expected to succeed Wiseman.  Spruill is much friendlier with Downtown/Cotton District business-owners than Wiseman was, and she will be a more strongly pro-development Mayor.

Heading north to Oxfart, after two terms Mayor Pat Patterson (D) has also announced his intention to retire.  Patterson has served in elected office in Oxford for 16 years.  So far, the only major candidate to announce is first-term alderwoman Robyn Tannehill (who looks like the epitome of Oxford).  While she's nominally running as a Democrat, she's shied away from partisan labels.

Filing deadlines in these races are March 3, so still plenty of time for them to evolve.  Partisan primaries will be in early May, and will effectively decide the outcomes.

    

[gespb19]

Could you realistically handicap Barker's chances in the Mayor's race?  Do you think he stands a decent chance?  Local politics is still very Democratic in Hattiesburg IIRC

It'll be real interesting.

As most MS political observers know, Dave Ware came real close in 2013 to beating DuPree but fell about 100 votes short after two elections and a court battle. DuPree received no opposition in 2009, in 2005 he had a GOP opponent but she ran a joke campaign and lost pretty badly (60-39-1).

Looking at the precinct reports, Ware seems to have gotten something like 10-15% of the black vote. Barker needs to run up massive margins in the majority-white precincts (Thames, Kamper Park, Camp, USM Golf Course, Timberton) and get something like 20% of the vote in the heavily-black precincts (Rowan, Train Depot, Dixie Pine Central, Grace Christian) which I think he can do. He won 70%+ of the vote in 2015 in his legislative race and like I said earlier, Clinton won this district by 10 % points in 2016. So there is/was some crossover, mostly white liberals but some black voters as well.

In a potential special election, I still think the GOP would be favored even though this is a Obama/Clinton district, but it wouldn't be a sure thing. There are no real obvious candidates for either party, but I think a handful of people would have a go at it.

TLDR: I think he has a shot at knocking off DuPree, right now I'd put it at 50/50, but that could change as the campaign starts heating up. Usually in these type of elections, it's about turnout with few swing voters. This applies for the most part in Barker/DuPree, but I think college-educated black voters might be the key demographic in this race that could sway the election one way or another.

[gespb19]

FWIW, Thad Cochran got 20-25% in Hattiesburg heavily-black precincts in 2014. Different election, sure, but shows that the right Republican can get about a quarter of the black vote.

[Cynthia]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

In Mississippi you sometimes can win even without that...

[gespb19]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

[gespb19]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

Yes. He endorsed Kasich in 2016 and Huntsman in 2012. Was the only Republican to vote against HB1523/LGBT bill on the first passage (two others joined on the second passage). Also voted against the massive tax cut last session.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[Klartext89]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

Yes. He endorsed Kasich in 2016 and Huntsman in 2012. Was the only Republican to vote against HB1523/LGBT bill on the first passage (two others joined on the second passage). Also voted against the massive tax cut last session.

I hope he loses badly, but then he keeps on making damage in the Legislature...

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

Yes. He endorsed Kasich in 2016 and Huntsman in 2012. Was the only Republican to vote against HB1523/LGBT bill on the first passage (two others joined on the second passage). Also voted against the massive tax cut last session.

I hope he loses badly, but then he keeps on making damage in the Legislature...

You may get an opposite of your wish, don't forget it))))

[BuckeyeNut]

Shelton sounds like a promising guy. Forum Dems are mostly fine with development, it's sh**t like Booker voting against cheaper medicine because they're in the pocket of Big Pharma that pisses people off.

[gespb19]

Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

[smoltchanov]

Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

May be. Hood never lost before and thought about retirement in 2015. Both these factors push him to finally retire in 2019, instead of running uphill race...

[smoltchanov]

Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

May be. Hood never lost before and thought about retirement in 2015. Both these factors push him to finally retire in 2019, instead of running uphill race...

Is it really that uphill? It's harder to tie him to national D's now, and he seems to have broad support from Northern Mississippi whites. He might as well go out in a blaze of glory if he wanted to retire anyways.

We are not him, so - we can't know for sure. But even his support among North Mississippi whites gradually decreases. Of course - it's much higher, then, say, Obama's or Hillary's, but - still.....

[Del Tachi]

I've always pegged Hood's chances of running for governor as close to nil for many of the same reasons that Frank Corder mentions.

Also, Mississippi Dems would much prefer Hood to run again for AG than take a gamble on the Governor's Mansion.  I think Hood can be convinced to seek a fifth term, and we're certainly to need him in that position if Tate Reeves is elected governor. 

[gespb19]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

[KingSweden]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

What is Musgrove up to these days, anyway?

[BuckeyeNut]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

What is Musgrove up to these days, anyway?

Started a law firm a few years back.

[smoltchanov]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

[Del Tachi]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

Yeah I would rate Eaves as more serious challenger than DuPree or Gray.

There certainly isn't a Democratic bench in the state, and you're never going to convince a Nick Bain or Jason Shelton or Connie Moran to run for governor if there's a chance they might lose the primary to a truck driver.

MS Dems are a (sad) joke.  Republicans will have to run our state into the ground before Democrats have more than a snowball's chance in hell of occupying either end of Congress Street.

[gespb19]

I'm not trying to sound rude when I ask this, but how is Mississippi already not run into the ground? They're dead last in educational attainment levels across the board, and their GDP per capita is downright pitiful. You would think that'd give someone like Hood an opening to run a "Democratic version of Trump" campaign under a "what the hell do you have to lose" type theme.

Would have to have some Louisiana or Kansas type fiscal disaster or something.

Like DT said, the MS Dem party is a joke. Bobby Moak (state chair) is a clown. I think Hood could win if he ran, but he'd have to overcome basically the entire Mississippi political establishment and the incompetence of his state party to win. If Hood's a no-go, I'd see if you can get Brandon Presley from the PSC to give it a shot. But Presley has very little name recognition outside of North Mississippi, which would be trouble.

[gespb19]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

Yeah I would rate Eaves as more serious challenger than DuPree or Gray.

There certainly isn't a Democratic bench in the state, and you're never going to convince a Nick Bain or Jason Shelton or Connie Moran to run for governor if there's a chance they might lose the primary to a truck driver.

MS Dems are a (sad) joke.  Republicans will have to run our state into the ground until they have a more snowball's chance in hell of occupying either end of Congress Street.

Right on Eaves. But he was never going to win. He actually did run pretty well in the NE part of the state and in some other heavily-white rural counties. Very socially conservative platform.

[Del Tachi]

In other state political news....

(1)  Last night Gov. Phil Bryant delivered his firth State of the State address.  Perhaps the biggest surprise was that the Governor said he was open to having "a general discussion" about the creation of a state lottery.  I guess after cutting taxes by $430 million last year and an accompanying decline in state revenues, good ol' Phil is willing to reach directly into the pockets of our poorest, least able citizens to bankroll his operation to turn Mississippi into a corporate bordello.  Bryant also asked for the state legislature to move an additional $57 million into the rainy day fund and establish a separate savings account for the $110 in BP settlement funds that will go to fund "appropriate projects" on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

(2) A proposal for a new MAEP formula was revealed Monday. EdBuild, a New Jersey-based educational advocacy firm, was contracted by state GOP leaders to do the re-write.  The most significant change was a recommendation that the State abandon its commitment to fund at least 73% of local district costs (this is probably to the  benefit of poorer districts), changing MAEP formula estimates to be based off of total enrollment rather than average daily attendance, and upping the per-student funding level from $4,677 to around $4,808.  Its hard to compare the proposal to the current MAEP because MAEP has not be adequately funded since 2009.  I'm not sure how I'd handicap the proposal's chances of becoming law, but if the MAEP formula re-write turns into a local property tax debate I know how most GOP legislators will be voting.

(3) House Bill 555, which would have required the Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State to sign onto lawsuits initiated by the Attorney General's office before they could go to court, failed to pass the full House by a vote of 58-60.  A motion to reconsider was initiated.  This was the best news to come out of Jackson so far this session.