Mississippi Megathread 2.0

[gespb19]

Can't forget this!

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/football/2017/01/18/bill-introduced-establish-ncaa-investigation-time-frames/96744132/

[Del Tachi]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

What is Musgrove up to these days, anyway?

Interestingly enough, he was the founder of a group a few years ago called the "Southern Progress Fund" or something along those lines.  It was basically a Super PAC with the whole purpose of giving money to Southern Demosaurs.  Heavily involved in the 2014 campaigns of Gwen Graham, Travis Childers and John Barrow.   Folded not long after that, they weren't around to help JBE in 2015 I know. 

Probably not all that interesting (these kinds of groups spring up all the time) but I thought the Forum might want to know that Musgrove hasn't completely lost his political streak.  He's still fairly young too, late 50s I think (which is pretty remarkable if you consider he was first elected governor almost 20 years ago).

I'm not trying to sound rude when I ask this, but how is Mississippi already not run into the ground? They're dead last in educational attainment levels across the board, and their GDP per capita is downright pitiful. You would think that'd give someone like Hood an opening to run a "Democratic version of Trump" campaign under a "what the hell do you have to lose" type theme.

   

I'll agree with Gesp in saying that a fiscal calamity could probably hand a conservative Democrat with a lot of crossover appeal and a well-organized, well-financed campaign the keys back to the Governor's Mansion.

And by "calamity" I mean things will have to get bad.  Like, the President of Mississippi State having to shave students' semester short in order to absorb state budget cuts, state agencies being unable to perform their basic regulatory functions, PERS being unable to pay its obligations, the State Mental Hospital Closing, state student financial aid programs being halted, several successive credit rating downgrades, a highway overpass collapsing in Madison County and killing 10 commuters because of MDOT cuts (won't matter if it happens on the other side of County Line Road though), etc.  Certainly not a Mississippi even Phil Bryant and Tate Reeves in their Eastover ivory towers would want to live in.

As far as what kind of Democrat would be best to win back the Governor's Mansion, I'd certainly go with a JBE type over a Jim Justice type.  Hood is more of a Justice type I believe.  Presley is more JBE.  The most ancestrally Democratic part of the state, Northeast Mississippi, is so culturally conservative now that I think it's impossible for statewide Democrats to win their anymore.  Sure Hood won it in 2015, but he had the benefit of being a 12 year incumbent running in a down-ballot race against a so-polished-it-hurt Jackson attorney with no prior elected experience.  Heck, in 2015 Hood lost Lee County and Tupelo (the "capital" of NEMS for lack of a better term) and I don't imagine that Prentiss and Pontotoc and Itawamba are far behind.

Democrats will gain significant fuel for statewide elections as soon as Bryant's budget shenanigans start impacting the livelihood of your more urban/suburban, college educated, White Republicans in places like the Jackson suburbs and Gulf Coast.  In a way, Republican resentment will arrive at these places sooner than they will in rural areas because (a) not as culturally conservative, by Mississippi standards and (b) effects of budget cuts will be seen here the easiest. 

In fact, this is essentially what happened with JBE in Louisiana in 2015.  JBE didn't win back most of the votes that Democrats had lost in rural, conservative areas like Acadiana (now, he did do this in a few places, but not by enough to win statewide actually).  Instead, he ran up the margins in Baton Rouge and New Orleans and cut into GOP margins in the suburbs, college towns and the North Shore. Mississippi Democrats should chart a similar path forward if the worst comes to worst:  run up huge margins in the Delta and Jackson, cut deep into GOP margins in Rankin, Madison, DeSoto and the Coast, and win the college counties and maybe that's enough to win back the state.  To do these you need Democrats who come off as smart and knowledgeable and have some suburban appeal, not angry Donald Trump/Jim Justice types.         


 

[smoltchanov]

Well, i tried to look at NE corner of Mississippi (arbitrary taking 4 counties: Alcorn, Itawamba. Prentiss and Tishomingo: all mostly white , with Blacks comprising from 3 to 14% of county population) and compared percentages of last 4 Democratic gubernatorial candidates + Hood (last election) and Presley (the same). What i got?

Musgrove (2003): 59.97, 43.81, 49.74, 42.29
Eaves (2007): 40.79, 47.34, 52.01, 46.55
DuPree (2011): 27.47, 22.3, 29.64, 24.58
Gray (2015): 15.58, 12.05, 19.45, 17.28
Hood (2015): 50.65, 54.1, 54.31, 48.4
Presley (2015): 54.79, 71.6, 69.79, 64.21

Big difference, isn't it? A "white conservative populists" (moderate to moderate-conservative on economy, solid conservative on social issues) faring from moderately good to very good, blacks - well, not so much (to be a minimally politically correct)))). Why?)))))

And one additional question: what sense does it make for people like Nick Bain (conservative populist of the above mentioned type from Alcorn county) to stay Democrat? In a statewide race "D" after name is more likely to be minus, not plus, with voting records like Bain's such people are acceptable for Mississippi Republican party (most of Mississippi's conservative Democrats had rather successfull career after switching, except those who were initially elected from minority heavy (35% or more) districts), as Democrats they are in perpetual minority in Legislature, and even in their caucus (usually - Black dominated and substantially more liberal) they are a minority. In fact - that reasoning applies to almost all remaining right-of-center Democratic legislators from the South. Bain's neighbor (Jodi Steverson) with similar voting record already switched, BTW))))). It's easy to understand why Deborah Dawkins (white, but solid liberal) is a Democrat, but these???

[VPH]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

[gespb19]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

Can't find a map, but Michael Evans, Nick Bain, and Tom Miles are the three big conservadems in the House. In the Senate, you have Bob Dearing and JP Wilemon.

[gespb19]

Well, i tried to look at NE corner of Mississippi (arbitrary taking 4 counties: Alcorn, Itawamba. Prentiss and Tishomingo: all mostly white , with Blacks comprising from 3 to 14% of county population) and compared percentages of last 4 Democratic gubernatorial candidates + Hood (last election) and Presley (the same). What i got?

Musgrove (2003): 59.97, 43.81, 49.74, 42.29
Eaves (2007): 40.79, 47.34, 52.01, 46.55
DuPree (2011): 27.47, 22.3, 29.64, 24.58
Gray (2015): 15.58, 12.05, 19.45, 17.28
Hood (2015): 50.65, 54.1, 54.31, 48.4
Presley (2015): 54.79, 71.6, 69.79, 64.21

Big difference, isn't it? A "white conservative populists" (moderate to moderate-conservative on economy, solid conservative on social issues) faring from moderately good to very good, blacks - well, not so much (to be a minimally politically correct)))). Why?)))))

And one additional question: what sense does it make for people like Nick Bain (conservative populist of the above mentioned type from Alcorn county) to stay Democrat? In a statewide race "D" after name is more likely to be minus, not plus, with voting records like Bain's such people are acceptable for Mississippi Republican party (most of Mississippi's conservative Democrats had rather successfull career after switching, except those who were initially elected from minority heavy (35% or more) districts), as Democrats they are in perpetual minority in Legislature, and even in their caucus (usually - Black dominated and substantially more liberal) they are a minority. In fact - that reasoning applies to almost all remaining right-of-center Democratic legislators from the South. Bain's neighbor (Jodi Steverson) with similar voting record already switched, BTW))))). It's easy to understand why Deborah Dawkins (white, but solid liberal) is a Democrat, but these???

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

[smoltchanov]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=2312

By my count there are about 10 whites in  House Democratic caucus. But only 3-4 of them can be called moderate conservatives (and even them are much less conservative then some Democrats a decade ago, not mentioning earlier times): Bain, Sullivan, M. Evans and, may be,  Miles. As i said formulating my question above - there is very little initiative for a white conservative to be a Democrat in the South now. On the other hand - i count about dozen recent party switchers (all - formerly conservative Democrats) sitting in Mississippi House as Republicans now. It's among them where you can find real conservatives: Mettetal, Rogers, J. Smith, Bounds, White, Read and some others... (and few in state Senate too)

[smoltchanov]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

Can't find a map, but Michael Evans, Nick Bain, and Tom Miles are the three big conservadems in the House. In the Senate, you have Bob Dearing and JP Wilemon.

Both Dearing and Wilemon are old, and will retire soon (may be - in 2019). Then it will be a first time that Senate Democratic caucus in Mississippi will have zero conservative Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

[gespb19]

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

Not an exact number (split precincts), but Clinton won this district something like 53-42-5. Barker has crossover appeal with white liberals (i.e. college faculty/staff, grad students, millennials, etc) and some blacks.

I still think the Republican would be favored, but a Democrat would at least have a chance (25-30% or so).

[smoltchanov]

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

Not an exact number (split precincts), but Clinton won this district something like 53-42-5. Barker has crossover appeal with white liberals (i.e. college faculty/staff, grad students, millennials, etc) and some blacks.

I still think the Republican would be favored, but a Democrat would at least have a chance (25-30% or so).

Interesting. Thanks!

[OneJ]

This isn't new but...why?

McDaniel won't resign