Could Paul Ryan be in trouble in 2018 if there is a backlash?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm wondering if there is a general anti-GOP mood in 2018? His seat is R+3 which isnt that big for someone that high up in the GOP. So is it possible for the dems to knock him off in 2018?

[Figueira]

I don't know. The district trended way to the right this time (despite Ryan no longer being on the national ticket) so the old PVI is a bit misleading. Democrats would be stupid not to target it, but I really doubt Ryan actually loses, even if Democrats gain the House.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In a world where the Democrats are a competent political party, yes. So, no.

[Gass3268]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

[Young Conservative]

It voted for Trump by about 10 points. A swing of 6 points more republican for the presidency in a year where Paul ryan wasn't the Vice President. Yeah.....no...

[Gass3268]

It voted for Trump by about 10 points. A swing of 6 points more republican for the presidency in a year where Paul ryan wasn't the Vice President. Yeah.....no...

If anything Ryan being a Vice President nominee made him more unpopular in his district in 2012.

[krazen1211]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

[DrScholl]

He could definitely have a Portillo Moment. When there is backlash, it's almost always in the Midwest.

[krazen1211]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

What was the PVI of the 90's era WI-2? In all honesty, the 90's Wisconsin House delegation was kinda fascinating given the high number of "wrong party" Representatives.

Al Gore got 58% of the vote in that iteration of WI-02. Extremist Baldwin got 51% against professor John Sharpless, which was even worse than what she got in 1998.

So, in an incumbent protection map, Obey and company removed areas where Baldwin lost to Sharpless like Dodge County....and they had to take Democrat voters in places like Beloit out of Ryan's district. So Ryan's district had to add population from that loss on top of the population it needed because Wisconsin lost a district....so it added parts of Waukesha that were in the dissolved 5th district.

[Sumner 1868]

1994 and 2006 would have been impossible if PVI determined everything.

[I’m not Stu]

1994 and 2006 would have been impossible if PVI determined everything.

To an extent, 2010 and 2014 too. There were several D+4-5 seats that House R's won that year, not to mention winning high profile Senate races in states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. I think the House is very much in play, and a lot will depend on Trump (though I know that many people on this board insist Trump doesn't stand for most of the Republican Party. Well, I think those Blue Dogs would've said the same thing in 2010).

Incumbents frequently win by a much wider margin than the PVI. Paul Ryan got 65% of the vote in 2016. It's unlikely he loses; unless he makes big mistakes.

[Gass3268]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

I missed the the tiny sliver that went into Waukesha County and I am not saying that the Democrats are innocent when it comes to the mess that is Wisconsin's congressional map. Incumbent protection plans can be just as bad as partisan gerrymanders. I had a class with John Sharpless, fun guy regardless of his political views.

[Indy Texas]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

I missed the the tiny sliver that went into Waukesha County and I am not saying that the Democrats are innocent when it comes to the mess that is Wisconsin's congressional map. Incumbent protection plans can be just as bad as partisan gerrymanders. I had a class with John Sharpless, fun guy regardless of his political views.

Wow, apparently the 2nd district (Madison) had a Republican representative in the '90s.

[Dr. Arch]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

I missed the the tiny sliver that went into Waukesha County and I am not saying that the Democrats are innocent when it comes to the mess that is Wisconsin's congressional map. Incumbent protection plans can be just as bad as partisan gerrymanders. I had a class with John Sharpless, fun guy regardless of his political views.

Wow, apparently the 2nd district (Madison) had a Republican representative in the '90s.

Both parties were more ideologically diverse back then.

[Xing]

No, Ryan's seat is safe even in a wave.

[Figueira]

No, Ryan's seat is safe even in a wave.

"Safe" is a word I'd use to describe Mac Thornberry's seat, not Paul Ryan's.

[houseonaboat]

Don't see him losing without redistricting or a nuclear holocaust wiping out Waukesha County.

[Xing]

No, Ryan's seat is safe even in a wave.

"Safe" is a word I'd use to describe Mac Thornberry's seat, not Paul Ryan's.

I guess it depends on how you define safe, but I have a hard time seeing Ryan in any danger at all.

[Figueira]

No, Ryan's seat is safe even in a wave.

"Safe" is a word I'd use to describe Mac Thornberry's seat, not Paul Ryan's.

I guess it depends on how you define safe, but I have a hard time seeing Ryan in any danger at all.

So do I, but I wouldn't discount it entirely.

[Stranger in a strange land]

He could be vulnerable if Trump is Uber-unpopular (likely), gets us into another war (also likely), and if the Republican congress tries to cut Medicare or social security (likely they'll try, but unlikely they'll succeed)

[LLR]

He'll only go if we've already won the House

[Maxwell]

reminder - Ryan only won by 10 in 2012, a year I'd consider a wave on the Senate level but not on the House level. I think if Democrats bothered some real recruitment in this district I think knocking off Ryan is possible in a wave year.