Will California be the most Democratic state in 2020?

[MT Treasurer]

I definitely think so. CA came really close to being the most Democratic state this year, but Hawaii was 2 points more D. I could easily see the Democratic nominee winning CA by 35 points, even while losing the election.

[JA]

It mostly depends on who's nominated and which faction they represent.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I definitely think so. CA came really close to being the most Democratic state this year, but Hawaii was 2 points more D. I could easily see the Democratic nominee winning CA by 35 points, even while losing the election.

According to wikipedia Hilary had 61.73% in California and 60.98% in Hawaii.

[RINO Tom]

It mostly depends on who's nominated and which faction they represent.

Does it, though?  California is so Hispanic and generally liberal that I think any Democrat would do the same against Trump.

[AGA]

I don't think so. Clinton still did better in Hawaii. There will be fewer write-ins in Vermont in 2020, allowing for the possibility of Vermont being the most Democratic state.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

It mostly depends on who's nominated and which faction they represent.

Does it, though?  California is so Hispanic and generally liberal that I think any Democrat would do the same against Trump.

I get your reasoning, but I doubt an Andrew Cuomo or a John Bel Edwards can drum up as much Californian enthusiasm as a Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.

[Shadows]

Massively dependent on who is the candidate. Warren can get good numbers in MA which is also very blue, Bernie for VT, maybe harris for CA & so on. Simiarly Booker maybe bad of good for HI or CA etc etc

These questions are relevant only when you have some idea about the nominee!

[libertpaulian]

It mostly depends on who's nominated and which faction they represent.

Does it, though?  California is so Hispanic and generally liberal that I think any Democrat would do the same against Trump.

I get your reasoning, but I doubt an Andrew Cuomo or a John Bel Edwards can drum up as much Californian enthusiasm as a Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.

You might have some moderate or liberal Republicans in CA who would vote for a John Bel Edwards, though.

[Young Conservative]

It mostly depends on who's nominated and which faction they represent.

Does it, though?  California is so Hispanic and generally liberal that I think any Democrat would do the same against Trump.

If Trump isn't the nominee It could be closer.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It's possible given Hawaii's pro-incumbent streak, but I'm not sure I'd say it's likely.

[Arbitrage1980]

Rubio would have lost CA by around 15 points if he had been the nominee. Keep in mind that Bush lost CA by just 10 points in 2004.

[The_Doctor]

More interestingly, the slippage among the biggest states for the GOP is of interest. The GOP lost CA by 30, IL by 20, NY by 20, won TX by 9 (down from 17), and won FL by 1. Consistently the GOP is looking weaker in the biggest states in the country. These states alone could keep any opposition fairly close to the GOP.

How the GOP continues to govern with popular support without the biggest states' wholehearted support will be uh, interesting. 

[Vosem]

I strongly suspect Hawaii trends heavily Republican in 2020, considering the pattern in 2004/1984/1972 and so on. And I strongly suspect that Sanders will run for and lose the Democratic nomination a second time, leading to a repeat of the Vermont write-in phenomenon. (If anything, I could see the 2020 Democratic nominee being a more openly corporatist Booker or Zuckerberg type leading to write-ins strengthening, not weakening, in Vermont). So...yeah, it would actually make sense.

Voted "yes". But these things can be very hard to predict. Very few people thought in early 2013 that Vermont would trend so Republican in 2016, for instance. CA might trend R for reasons that aren't even on anyone's radar now.

[Xing]

Vermont might go back to being a D+30-35% state.

[Figueira]

I suspect it will.

[Vosem]

It matters to Bernie himself, and if the rift between the 2020 nominee and Bernie is more severe (Bernie endorsed and campaigned for Clinton; suppose Bernie pulls a Rubio and endorses the nominee but refuses to campaign for him) I could see more of Bernie's supporters choosing not to back that candidate.

[ag]

It matters to Bernie himself, and if the rift between the 2020 nominee and Bernie is more severe (Bernie endorsed and campaigned for Clinton; suppose Bernie pulls a Rubio and endorses the nominee but refuses to campaign for him) I could see more of Bernie's supporters choosing not to back that candidate.

Sanders himself will be much less of a factor in 2020. He will be even older, he will not likely run in the primary, and even if he does, he will lose the novelty feel. While it is not impossible that there will be another flag-bearer on that side, I doubt it will be Sen. Sanders himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, yes and with the population boom with Latinos and a Dem governor in NM, NV and FL Dems can net those states to win presidency as well.

[Nyvin]

Rubio would have lost CA by around 15 points if he had been the nominee. Keep in mind that Bush lost CA by just 10 points in 2004.

The 2004 election was more than 12 years ago....I'd say it's time to move on.