2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs?
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  2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs?
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Author Topic: 2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs?  (Read 1422 times)
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ExtremeRepublican
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« on: January 13, 2017, 03:16:07 PM »

Suburbs of places like Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas definitely seem like where Trump will probably rebound the most in 2020.  But, what would that look like?  Would Trump hit 60 in states like MO and IN?  Obviously, ME, VA, MN, CO, and NV would flip, but would anything else?

My best guess:


States I was unsure about: NJ, RI, CT, DE, OR, WA, NM, and IL.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2017, 03:17:46 PM »

Trump won't win states like OR, VA and NJ, plus I think it will be extremely difficult for him to keep his support in the rural areas while appealing to the suburbs at the same time.
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JustinTimeCuber
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2017, 03:18:18 PM »

Trump won't win Oregon in 2020. You have an ExtremeRepublican bias.
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2017, 03:21:27 PM »

In this hypothetical (which I think is unlikely) I think this map happens, minus Oregon.

I think we might see a regression to Romney's numbers in the suburbs, but no more than that for Trump.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2017, 03:32:06 PM »

L O L
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2017, 03:37:07 PM »

In this hypothetical (which I think is unlikely) I think this map happens, minus Oregon.

I think we might see a regression to Romney's numbers in the suburbs, but no more than that for Trump.

I think Trump can win up to CO,NH,MN, and NV...if he does very well. A more typical best case would be if he wins NH and MN and wins the rust belt and FL by like 3-5.

The map below can only happen is if we go from like 10%U to like 4%U throughout the next 4 years or we win a war....a big war.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2017, 03:39:11 PM »

Trump won't be rebounding in 2020: he hasn't even taken office yet and his approvals are already lower than Obama's were at any point during his presidency, and he hasn't even hit his first major scandal in office yet (Peeghazi doesn't county because the facts are in too much doubt).

Also, Trump made a bunch of unrealistic promises to his base that he won't be able to fulfill. Expectations in Trump Country are through the roof and he's doing nothing to tamp them down. It reminds me a lot of when Obama got elected and Time Magazine published a cover of him as FDR and people were comparing him to Lincoln.  
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Eharding
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2017, 03:45:50 PM »

This is not going to happen. Seriously, New Jersey?
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2017, 10:14:10 PM »

Clinton 2016 in cities and suburbs and Obama 2012 in rural areas. What would that look like?
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2017, 11:24:35 PM »

How do you know 2020 won't be Obama 2008 in the cities and Bush 2000 in rural areas?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2017, 11:40:56 PM »

He lost Oregon by 12. There's no way Oregon is going GOP in '20 barring a massive Democratic meltdown.
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Shadows
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2017, 12:27:39 AM »

If people are speculating about ridiculous situations, why not discuss about a 49 state victory & which state will be the last holdout - VT or CA or HI?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2017, 01:33:36 AM »

This map is absurd obviously, mostly because of this:

As to the point of this thread, while it is fascinating to think about, Bush 2004 in the cities and inner suburbs are not coming back. Those 2/3 Republican majorities in places like Gwinnett and Cobb in the Atlanta burbs aren't coming back. Orange County, CA is likely gone given demographics, but we should probably wait for 2018 and 2020 before we can definitively say that. The collar counties of Chicago are not amenable to a Trumpified GOP that embraces white identity politics. Neither is NoVA. Or Orange/Osceola. Or Dallas and Houston. Or metro Denver. Charlotte, NC and Wake County have become way too diverse for the GOP to win in.

Alternatively, Democrats probably aren't going to come roaring back in force in the Demosaur areas of the south and Midwest anytime soon, though the Midwest is probably the most elastic part of the nation.

I could see the WOW counties in Wisconsin swinging his way in a Bush '04-esque year, but probably not by all that much. Perhaps more importantly for his reelection chances, he needs to make sure that turnout doesn't drop off significantly in the areas he won decisively.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2017, 10:29:55 AM »

Trump won't win states like OR, VA and NJ, plus I think it will be extremely difficult for him to keep his support in the rural areas while appealing to the suburbs at the same time.

Not sure I buy that.  Rural areas and suburbs *should* have as much in common politically as suburban areas and inner cities.
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