If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip?

[Nichlemn]

It's January 3rd, 2019. All you know is that the Democrats control the Senate today. Given that information, what's the probability they have gained one or more seats that were not in Class 1 (the Senate class up for election in 2018) since today, and this was essential for their control?

In other words, how critical is it for the Democrats' chances of winning the Senate that they get a surprise seat?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would be due to either that or a three way race in Utah. Probably a 30% chance it was Utah, so 70% chance for out of class.

[Figueira]

As in, Cory Gardner or Marco Rubio suddenly resigning out of nowhere? I guess that's a possibility. I'll go with 60% since, while I think it's POSSIBLE that Democrats will get one of UT/TX/NE/MS/WY/TN, it's unlikely that Democrats will do that while still retaining all current seats and picking up NV and AZ.

[Nichlemn]

As in, Cory Gardner or Marco Rubio suddenly resigning out of nowhere? I guess that's a possibility. I'll go with 60% since, while I think it's POSSIBLE that Democrats will get one of UT/TX/NE/MS/WY/TN, it's unlikely that Democrats will do that while still retaining all current seats and picking up NV and AZ.

Not to be too morbid about it, but I think John McCain or Chuck Grassley dying suddenly is the more probable outcome.

Also, I could definitely see Collins flipping in a 50/50 Senate if she's fed up enough with Trump.

[Figueira]

As in, Cory Gardner or Marco Rubio suddenly resigning out of nowhere? I guess that's a possibility. I'll go with 60% since, while I think it's POSSIBLE that Democrats will get one of UT/TX/NE/MS/WY/TN, it's unlikely that Democrats will do that while still retaining all current seats and picking up NV and AZ.

Not to be too morbid about it, but I think John McCain or Chuck Grassley dying suddenly is the more probable outcome.

Also, I could definitely see Collins flipping in a 50/50 Senate if she's fed up enough with Trump.

McCain and Grassley's seats wouldn't exactly be Safe D though, especially with Branstad and Ducey choosing the interim replacements (and Arizona Governors are required to pick someone of the same party as the previous Senator anyway). I guess they'd be more likely pickups than Texas, but that's on the off chance that the opportunity even arises. McCain has good genes; I think he'll survive. Not sure about Grassley.

[Blackacre]

Either McCain or Grassley dies and the Dem wins the special election on the midterm, or Dems pick up AZ/NV, keep everything they have, and Collins pulls a Jeffords.

[ag]

Murkowski and/or Collins could switch to Indie and Grassley and/or McCain could die/retire for health reasons. There could also be some appointments to the cabinet - I do not expect there to be a lot of stability.

But, yeah, I woud say 80% sounds right.

Another interesting possibility is an unfilled vacancy in vice-presidency. Suppose that, for whatever reason, with the Senate at 50/50 Pence gets promoted. Of course, a new VP would get to break the Senate tie - but the new VP would have to be confirmed by the Senate

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Overwhelming odds. 85-90 at least.

Most likely way it happens is a blue-state Republican like Susan Collins gets sick of the Senate and leaves either to run for governor or just out of disgust.

[ag]

Overwhelming odds. 85-90 at least.

Most likely way it happens is a blue-state Republican like Susan Collins gets sick of the Senate and leaves either to run for governor or just out of disgust.

Or switches.

[I’m not Stu]

80-90 seems likely. It would probably involve McCain, Portman, Murkowski, and Kennedy (who used to be a Democrat) switching. It would also involve Flake and Heller losing. There is also an unlikely outside chance Isakson resigns because of health problems and Michelle Nunn wins a special election against the appointed GOP incumbent.

[Klartext89]

Some here are either totally delusional or they simply have too much time.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some here are either totally delusional or they simply have too much time.

Like you?

[Virginiá]

Some here are either totally delusional or they simply have too much time.

It's a theoretical question. No one is saying it will happen. What else are we supposed to do when there isn't a major election going on? Talk about how great Donald is?

If you think we are all so delusional, go crawl back to /r/T_D and leave us to our fantasies.

[jamestroll]

Some here are either totally delusional or they simply have too much time.

Why would predictions about 2018 or 2020 right now be exactly right when it has not gone that way the past few cycles.

Usually you can get a good gauge the January before. This cycle was a bit unusual. Like I said a few times, I think the Comey Letter and ObamaCare Premiums killed Clinton and potentially a few Senate candidates.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The only shot is if Collins runs for Governor in 2018 which - while not impossible - seems unlikely.

[Blackacre]

The only shot is if Collins runs for Governor in 2018 which - while not impossible - seems unlikely.

she'd have to win, and then she'd probably appoint a GOP Placeholder

[Figueira]

The only shot is if Collins runs for Governor in 2018 which - while not impossible - seems unlikely.

she'd have to win, and then she'd probably appoint a GOP Placeholder

If Collins ran for Governor she'd be virtually guaranteed to win, and I'm not sure I need the word "virtually."

And yeah, there would be a Republican appointed to the Senate, so it wouldn't change things in 2018. In 2020 though, that person would be the most vulnerable Republican along with Gardner.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins will flip because she will be up in 2020 and the senate is almost a foregone conclusion that the Dems will have it then if they defeat Sullivan, Ernst, Tillis and Gardner anyways and they will be the odds on favorite to win the presidency anyways.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In either NC or LA, both the Senators died in a plane crash, and the Democratic governor appointed 2 Democrats. And if LA, the special election hasn't been held yet.

[Figueira]

In either NC or LA, both the Senators died in a plane crash, and the Democratic governor appointed 2 Democrats. And if LA, the special election hasn't been held yet.

The plane crash would have to occur very close to the election, or after it.