Election forecasts and reality

[yawa]

2016 election triggered lots of predictions and forecasts made by scientists, politicians, and various sorcerers.
Allan Lichtman basing on 13 keys system predicted  Trump's victory http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/23/election_forecasting_guru_allan_lichtman_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_2016_election.html ;
The most famous European sorcerer, Kaede Uber blundered prophesying Clinton's victory http://www.todaynews24h.com/human-communications-of-the-prophetess-vanga-guess-hillary-clinton-wins-the-u-s-presidential-election/ ;
Kazah clairvoyant Lion foretold Trump win https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20d1xPjMH7c .
Atlas forumers never hesitated to make their own predictions. I searched archives to find 4 discussions devoted to predictions of election results/
- Trump vs Clinton, May 4 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236086.msg5055211#msg5055211 .
- How far will Trump drop? October 8 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247764.50 .
- Is Trump finished?  October 07 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247698.0 .
- Who will win the election and why? October 06, 2016 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247529.0 .
The overwhelming majority of Atlas forumers predicted Clinton victory.
Now we know that Trump won with 35% margin getting 304 electoral votes vs. Clinton's 227.

To summarize, the best forecast was made by egalitt who on May 4 predicted Trump's victory with double digit margin, and on October 8 wrote: "Trump will not drop. He will rise after defeating Clinton in the second debate. Clinton will trail by 30% on November 8."

The worst result was shown by skoods, who on October 6 stated that "Clinton will win with around 355 electoral votes" thus making a 67.76 + 35= 102.76% error.

Interestingly, egalitt was banned from the forum right after making his prediction.

[Devout Centrist]

I was definitely arrogant. I am clearly terrible at political analysis and politics in general. Henceforth, I shall only preach the power of endless sex, alcohol, and pessimism.

[Crumpets]

The thing is, there was very little hard evidence you could point to before the election to support the theory that Trump would win apart from Bill Mitchell's Halloween mask theory. I felt much more confident going into election night 2016 than I did 2012 simply because I know if I had been a Romney supporter, there were plenty of causes for optimism. Trump simply had a wing and a prayer, but it turns out, that was all he needed.

[yawa]

The thing is, there was very little hard evidence you could point to before the election to support the theory that Trump would win apart from Bill Mitchell's Halloween mask theory. I felt much more confident going into election night 2016 than I did 2012 simply because I know if I had been a Romney supporter, there were plenty of causes for optimism. Trump simply had a wing and a prayer, but it turns out, that was all he needed.

Then egalitt's achievement is great. Maybe he is a clairvoyant.  We should consult him to find out about, e.g. Trump's future. Will he serve one tem? Two terms? Or half of the first term to be impeached for ties with Russians?
Does anybody know egalitt's  email?

[yawa]

Well, no response. Russians (this time personified by egalitt) outperformed Americans as usual. The only exact prediction about the American election was made by a Russian. I feel like becoming more and more pro-Russian.
OK, I'll try to dig up information about egalitt on my own.

[gruen]

To the best of my knowledge,  the best prediction was Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" model done for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics "Crystal Ball" that showed Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton. I. E.  with less than 3% margin.

[toko]

Really?

[skoods]

Weird seeing my name brought up in the OP.

But I'm not ashamed of my prediction.

I just had more faith in America than it deserved. America would rather have a racist, right wing demagogue as president than a woman. Pathetic country, really.

Pathetic site too. Filled with right wing 20 year olds who masturbate to pictures of Ronald Reagan.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Weird seeing my name brought up in the OP.

But I'm not ashamed of my prediction.

I just had more faith in America than it deserved. America would rather have a racist, right wing demagogue as president than a woman. Pathetic country, really.

Pathetic site too. Filled with right wing 20 year olds who masturbate to pictures of Ronald Reagan.

-Explain the dozens upon dozens of counties, then, with more HRC 08 votes than HRC November 2016 votes, both in states with open and closed primaries.

HRC 2008: racist right-wing male demagogue?

[Rutter]

Weird seeing my name brought up in the OP.

But I'm not ashamed of my prediction.

I just had more faith in America than it deserved. America would rather have a racist, right wing demagogue as president than a woman. Pathetic country, really.

Pathetic site too. Filled with right wing 20 year olds who masturbate to pictures of Ronald Reagan.

Noone should be ashamed of her/his predictions. You are not a professional expert, sorcerer, or clairvoyant who get paid for their predictions.
I don't think Trump to be as bad. He is an isolationist rather than a racist.

[justfollowingtheelections]

2016 election triggered lots of predictions and forecasts made by scientists, politicians, and various sorcerers.
Allan Lichtman basing on 13 keys system predicted  Trump's victory http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/23/election_forecasting_guru_allan_lichtman_predicts_donald_trump_will_win_2016_election.html ;
The most famous European sorcerer, Kaede Uber blundered prophesying Clinton's victory http://www.todaynews24h.com/human-communications-of-the-prophetess-vanga-guess-hillary-clinton-wins-the-u-s-presidential-election/ ;
Kazah clairvoyant Lion foretold Trump win https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20d1xPjMH7c .
Atlas forumers never hesitated to make their own predictions. I searched archives to find 4 discussions devoted to predictions of election results/
- Trump vs Clinton, May 4 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236086.msg5055211#msg5055211 .
- How far will Trump drop? October 8 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247764.50 .
- Is Trump finished?  October 07 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247698.0 .
- Who will win the election and why? October 06, 2016 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247529.0 .
The overwhelming majority of Atlas forumers predicted Clinton victory.
Now we know that Trump won with 35% margin getting 304 electoral votes vs. Clinton's 227.

To summarize, the best forecast was made by egalitt who on May 4 predicted Trump's victory with double digit margin, and on October 8 wrote: "Trump will not drop. He will rise after defeating Clinton in the second debate. Clinton will trail by 30% on November 8."

The worst result was shown by skoods, who on October 6 stated that "Clinton will win with around 355 electoral votes" thus making a 67.76 + 35= 102.76% error.

Interestingly, egalitt was banned from the forum right after making his prediction.

No offense but are you seriously comparing Allan Lightman to sorcerers and clairvoyants?

[Rutter]

Lightman is in no way a sorcerer, his predictions are based on 13 keypoints that can be described mathematically.
He correctly predicted results of several electons. But he never specifies a victory margin. I searched the Internet but failed to find any predictions that gave exact figures of Trump's advantage over Clinton.