Orange County, CA and Elliot County, KY

[The Arizonan]

Why is it that Hillary Clinton won Orange County, CA and yet she lost Elliot County. KY? This sounds like an anomaly.

[jamestroll]

Not everything will be like 1980/2000/2004/2008/2012 forever.

[hopper]

Never made the Elliot County, KY and Orange County, CA connection before until this thread!

Hillary won Orange County, CA because a lot of Hispanics live there and Trump offended them.

Trump won Elliot County, KY because it swung very hard to Romney in 2012 going from 60% for voting for Obama to voting 50% for Obama and its a rural county which is Trump's target audience.

[Smash255]

Orange County has large and growing Hispanic and Asian populations and whites tend to be well educated, Elliot County is almost all white with low education levels.  The end

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

An irony: HRC ended up getting more votes in Elliott in 2008 than in the 2016 general election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Elliot, KY would be very hard for the Democrats to win back. Orange, CA could easily vote Republican in 4 years.

[Nyvin]

Elliot, KY would be very hard for the Democrats to win back. Orange, CA could easily vote Republican in 4 years.

Any reasoning behind this?   Not that I disagree with Elliot KY

[Pandaguineapig]

Elliot, KY would be very hard for the Democrats to win back. Orange, CA could easily vote Republican in 4 years.

Any reasoning behind this?   Not that I disagree with Elliot KY

Trump would need small gains among Hispanics and/or college educated whites to win Orange county, Democrats would need a massive swing from working class whites in a rural area of coal country. The latter seems a much taller task

[Nyvin]

Elliot, KY would be very hard for the Democrats to win back. Orange, CA could easily vote Republican in 4 years.

Any reasoning behind this?   Not that I disagree with Elliot KY

Trump would need small gains among Hispanics and/or college educated whites to win Orange county, Democrats would need a massive swing from working class whites in a rural area of coal country. The latter seems a much taller task

Clinton won Orange by 8 points,  it's much more than small gains among Hispanics and whites.

Every trend we see right now shows that it's gone for Republicans.  In fact in all likelihood I'd say there's a good chance Orange becomes more Democratic than San Bernardino at some point soon.

Plus with Elliot you're talking about ~3k voters, with Orange you're talking 1.2 million. 

[MT Treasurer]

Plus with Elliot you're talking about ~3k voters, with Orange you're talking 1.2 million. 

It doesn't work that way, because it's the margin that matters and not raw vote totals.

[Mr. Smith]

Orange was barely lost by Obama in '08 and Romney was an absurdly good fit for the county.

But yeah, Orange is trending the same way Alpine was 20 years ago.  Big Trending D one cycle, narrow loss in the midst of big D trend statewide, then the GOP nominates a decent fit for the area which slightly stalls the flip, but soon enough even that isn't enough.

[rbt48]

I'm curious to know how Elliot County voted down ballot (for Senate, House, and State Legislature).

[DrScholl]

Not exactly an anomaly. Both counties have trended away from their traditional political roots in previous cycles.

[I’m not Stu]

San Diego County seems to be trending Democratic as well (especially Vista, Oceanside, and San Marcos). Will Darrell Issa lose his House seat next year? Could Republicans win San Diego County any time soon?

[I’m not Stu]

I think rural Kentucky is basically done for the Democrats in Presidential races, to be honest. For Orange County, Trump was an unbelievably bad fit for the area, so I don't think it's necessarily gone for the Republicans, yet.

Trump was a horrible fit for Orange County. He did poorly in Irvine (although down-ticket Republicans like Steven Choi and Mimi Walters won, with Choi winning an open Assembly seat an Walters winning another House term). He also did worse than previous Republicans in the predominantly white city of Seal Beach. The very few places in Northern Orange County where he did well were the neighborhood of West Garden Grove (where he broke 50% in every precinct), parts of Huntington Beach, and primarily white neighborhoods in Westminster. In Los Angeles County, interestingly, Trump won City of Industry (which is surrounded by other communities that are heavily Democratic) and broke 50% in City of Industry.

[Sumner 1868]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

[I’m not Stu]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

Is San Diego County lost yet?

[Sumner 1868]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

I have no idea what you mean by that. Nothing in Idaho was ever part of Orange County.

It's not a secret that much of the population growth in Idaho (and Utah to a lesser extent) in the 1990s and 2000s was right-wingers initially from Orange County who resented the state's growing social liberalism.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

I have no idea what you mean by that. Nothing in Idaho was ever part of Orange County.

It's not a secret that much of the population growth in Idaho (and Utah to a lesser extent) in the 1990s and 2000s was right-wingers initially from Orange County who resented the state's growing social liberalism.

Wouldn't they go to Arizona or Texas before Utah or Idaho, then?  I'd imagine that those types of people would want to stay in warm areas.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

I have no idea what you mean by that. Nothing in Idaho was ever part of Orange County.

It's not a secret that much of the population growth in Idaho (and Utah to a lesser extent) in the 1990s and 2000s was right-wingers initially from Orange County who resented the state's growing social liberalism.

Wouldn't they go to Arizona or Texas before Utah or Idaho, then?  I'd imagine that those types of people would want to stay in warm areas.

Idaho was probably a lot cheaper, and it looked nice. It also helps that Idaho was more strongly socon even before the migration. It helps that Idaho isn't that big in the first place.

[Torie]

The fact half of what was Orange County is now in Idaho clearly had a bit of a long-term impact.

I have no idea what you mean by that. Nothing in Idaho was ever part of Orange County.

It's not a secret that much of the population growth in Idaho (and Utah to a lesser extent) in the 1990s and 2000s was right-wingers initially from Orange County who resented the state's growing social liberalism.

Wouldn't they go to Arizona or Texas before Utah or Idaho, then?  I'd imagine that those types of people would want to stay in warm areas.

I personally know some folks in OC who moved to Idaho for various reasons. One of my clients did so, because he dislikes paying taxes. Others did so because they wanted a more "wholesome" environment. Myself, I seek out depravity, but I digress.

[rob in cal]

   All this talk about future trends in Orange County presupposes that California is still in the US. Please people show some respect to the rising California secessionist movement.