NJ-SEN 2018: Could Bob Menendez lose reelection?

[Suburbia]

Could New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, who is under corruption charges right now for dealings with a Florida doctor, lose reelection in 2018 despite the year being Trump or Pence's first midterm election in a blue state like New Jersey? 

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/04/menendez_resign_and_spare_us_the_drama_editorial.html#incart_river

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/04/sen_bob_menendez_indicted_on_federal_corruption_ch.html

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/new-jersey-democrats-support-bob-menendez-reelection-2018

[houseonaboat]

New Jersey is still a machine politics state and Menendez is still very much a political boss. He gets way too many votes from Hudson, Essex and Bergen (3 of the 4 biggest counties in the state) to put his job in any real danger.

More importantly, the GOP bench is thin in New Jersey. Ciatterelli and Kean would be the most credible challengers to him, and they don't have the name ID to stage super credible runs yet.

This gives a good idea of how important Menendez is behind the scenes in Jersey politics, and why it's unlikely he would lose any election. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/can-bob-menendez-survive-087109

[Suburbia]

New Jersey is still a machine politics state and Menendez is still very much a kingmaker. He gets way too many votes from Hudson, Essex and Bergen (3 of the 4 biggest counties in the state) to put his job in any real danger.

More importantly, the GOP bench is thin in New Jersey. Ciatterelli and Kean would be the most credible challengers to him, and they don't have the name ID to stage super credible runs yet.

Kean, Ciattarelli, Bramnick, Jennifer Beck, or even Kathleen Donovan (R-Bergen) could beat him. A dark horse would be Joe Piscopo, if he doesn't run for governor in 2017.

[Young Conservative]

Definitely. He could lose a primary or the general election. If Tom kean runs it's a tossup...

[Figueira]

Sure, he could. I think it's very unlikely though.

[Vega]

I imagine he'll face a fairly competitive primary which he'll probably lose if it's an inspiring young candidate, likely an Asian, like Jun Choi.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is based on the assumption that terrible people are likely to lose, which isn't true.

[Maxwell]

I'll go out on a limb and say Menendez is fine. With the NJ GOP in as bad a shape as it is, he is safe.

[SATW]

Menendez will persevere against the haters. I don't think Kean will run, but even if he does he'll lose.

I'll support Menendez against all candidates except Kean.

[hopper]

Definitely No since New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP Senator since the 1970's.

[Cynthia]

Did Sam Brownback and Dan Malloy lose? No.

[I’m not Stu]

Definitely No since New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP Senator since the 1970's.

He could lose to a primary challenger who eventually defeats the Republican.

[smoltchanov]

In primary - may be, but he is likely to have strong machine support. In general - unlikely: the last Republican Senator elected from New Jersey was Clifford Case, and his voting record was at least moderate-liberal (not simply moderate), may be - even simply liberal. Do you know many such Republicans these days???

[justfollowingtheelections]

I don't think he is running.

[Vosem]

In a Hillary midterm, yes. In a primary, just maybe -- Donald Norcross is known to have senatorial ambitions, and he might be able to get more machine support than even Menendez. In the general election in a Trump midterm? No.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yes, it's entirely possible that he loses a primary (especially since national Ds don't seem thrilled with his outspoken opposition to the Iran deal). But Republicans don't have much of a chance even without factoring in the unpopularity of Chris Christie's administration.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Definitely No since New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP Senator since the 1970's.

Torricelli would have lost in 2002, though.

[DrScholl]

Menendez will be safe because of Trump.

[hopper]

Menendez is far from being safe for reelection. I could see him losing to someone like Kean or Guadagno. He is in some serious trouble if he decides to go for a third term.

The thing is for a Republican US Senate Candidate in order to win in the general election you need a lot of non-white support in Northern New Jersey(Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties) which I don't think is happening in 2018 when a Republican is President.

[hopper]

Definitely No since New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP Senator since the 1970's.

Torricelli would have lost in 2002, though.

Very True but the National GOP was still more moderate then in 2002 and less-populist(i.e. Trump.)

[Cubby]

He's very corrupt, and he challeneged Obama on too many issues in the past few years. I really hope he  gets taken down by Rush Holt in a primary.

[Fusionmunster]

Menendez is far from being safe for reelection. I could see him losing to someone like Kean or Guadagno. He is in some serious trouble if he decides to go for a third term.

The thing is for a Republican US Senate Candidate in order to win in the general election you need a lot of non-white support in Northern New Jersey(Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties) which I don't think is happening in 2018 when a Republican is President.

Or just low voter turnout

NJ is not Michigan. Democrats arent dependent on one major city turning out. Low turnout wouldnt flip the state.

[BuckeyeNut]

Theoretically, yes, but unlikely. I wish he would retire so Rush Holt could make a comeback.

[Suburbia]

Definitely No since New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP Senator since the 1970's.

Torricelli would have lost in 2002, though.

He might have lost in 2002 unless he turned out left-wing voters who were mad about Iraq War vote in October 2002. He would have lost to Doug Forrester, a wealthy N.J. GOP from the past.

[hopper]

Menendez is far from being safe for reelection. I could see him losing to someone like Kean or Guadagno. He is in some serious trouble if he decides to go for a third term.

The thing is for a Republican US Senate Candidate in order to win in the general election you need a lot of non-white support in Northern New Jersey(Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties) which I don't think is happening in 2018 when a Republican is President.

Or just low voter turnout

NJ is not Michigan. Democrats arent dependent on one major city turning out. Low turnout wouldnt flip the state.

True turnout in NJ would have to be low-low for a Republican to get elected to a US Senate Seat.

I think the last Governors Race in NJ was like 40% turnout. Turnout for NJ Governor's Races used to be around 60% in the 1970's and 1980's.