2018 Florida Governor....a few Questions...

[SCNCmod]

1) Who are likely to be the leading Dem contenders? 
2) How does Kathy Castor compare to Gwenn Graham?
3) Is Huckabee really likely to enter the race?

(I hope Huckabee does & takes out Adam Putnam in the Primary... b/c I think Putnam would be a tough opponent)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I'm scared of John Morgan, not Gwen Graham, tbh.

Seconding this. He's a total wild card at this point, and I think running as an outsider probably does more good than harm in this political climate.

[Heisenberg]

I'm scared of John Morgan, not Gwen Graham, tbh.

Seconding this. He's a total wild card at this point, and I think running as an outsider probably does more good than harm in this political climate.

+3. This is critically important not just with redistricting, or state legislation, but also the state's Supreme Court. I honestly wouldn't mind if Trump tactically put one of the liberal justices on the 11th Circuit this year or early next year so that Gov. Scott could fill that seat and solidify a conservative majority.

Also, Putnam, the GOP front-runner, has literally been in politics since finishing college. That would be a huge liability. I can very easily imagine a lot of Scott/Scott/Morgan voters throughout the state.

[Dereich]

I'm scared of John Morgan, not Gwen Graham, tbh.

Seconding this. He's a total wild card at this point, and I think running as an outsider probably does more good than harm in this political climate.

+3. This is critically important not just with redistricting, or state legislation, but also the state's Supreme Court. I honestly wouldn't mind if Trump tactically put one of the liberal justices on the 11th Circuit this year or early next year so that Gov. Scott could fill that seat and solidify a conservative majority.

Also, Putnam, the GOP front-runner, has literally been in politics since finishing college. That would be a huge liability. I can very easily imagine a lot of Scott/Scott/Morgan voters throughout the state.

When there is a vacancy in a Florida Court the governor does not get to control the replacement choice. A judicial nominating committee which partly appointed by the governor but majority appointed by the Florida Bar gives the governor 3 names to fill the vacancy and he must choose a name from the three.

The strength of any Florida Republican is monetary advantage and the organizational skill of the RPOF. Putnam's specific advantage beyond being in the superior state party is that with his institutional support he's virtually cleared the field; he'll have an immediate edge on fundraising and an activist presence while the Democrats will be fighting the primary.

As for that primary, I'm not particularly worried about John Morgan. A Democrat in Florida starts with college towns, big cities and minorities. That gets them to 45%. From there, they need to do better in some kind of group that votes for Republicans. Who does Morgan bring to the table? The young? I doubt it; marijuana didn't bring them out for Charlie Crist and it won't for Morgan either. Suburban whites? Maybe, but I don't see why. Personal injury attorneys aren't particularly popular and I can't think of anything he'd have over Putnam that'd make middle class whites flock to him. Southern whites? Cubans? I can't think of any particular reason for them to like him.

Gwen Graham's group appeal is easy: old Southern whites. It's not the easiest strategy but its what won her FL-2 and its where Bill Nelson has been successful as well. I'm not sure she'd be able to do it but pulling off the blue dog act along with nostalgia for her father is a viable campaign strategy. Until someone can explain Morgan's viable winning coalition Graham will be the better candidate in my eyes.

[Kingpoleon]

1) Who are likely to be the leading Dem contenders? 
2) How does Kathy Castor compare to Gwenn Graham?
3) Is Huckabee really likely to enter the race?

(I hope Huckabee does & takes out Adam Putnam in the Primary... b/c I think Putnam would be a tough opponent)

1. Gwen Graham, Bob Buckhorn, Andrew Gillum, Buddy Dyer, and John Morgan. Graham and Morgan are a bit ahead of the others.
2. Castor has more experience, while Graham is more electable and steadily dedicated to the Democratic Party. She was a campaign worker for Dean after her father dropped out, and then coordinated Kerry's efforts in Florida.
3. Unlikely. Huckabee is a very interesting person in general, but I don't think he wants to be Governor again.

[Littlefinger]

I think Graham would be stronger in the GE eventhough my own views are likely closer to Morgan's. I think there is a good chance by 2018 that an "outsider" candidate will not be received as being an "asset" if Trump is unpopular in statewide and local races.

[progressive85]

I think Gwen Graham would be a very good choice.  Florida's never had a woman Governor and she would be the first Democrat, if she wins, in what seems like ages of Republican rule.

[Young Conservative]

Everyone keeps assuming Trump will be unpopular, but every day I see his sucesss grow.

[Young Conservative]

Then you might be legally blind, because he's barely breaking 40% in his approval ratings in every single poll.

I understand, but I also recognize that election day 2018 is almost two years away.

[Nyvin]

Everyone keeps assuming Trump will be unpopular, but every day I see his sucesss grow.

He's literally the least popular president elect in our recorded history.

What "success" could he possibly have?  He isn't even in office yet.

[krazen1211]

Heir Force Grammy is a mediocrity who is going to lose badly. Lol. She might even be worse than the boozehound that lost in 2016!

[krazen1211]

Everyone keeps assuming Trump will be unpopular, but every day I see his sucesss grow.

He's literally the least popular president elect in our recorded history.

What "success" could he possibly have?  He isn't even in office yet.

It's almost like his party won bigly in the House, the Senate, Governorships, and state legislatures!

Oh, with half the money, too.

[Confused Democrat]

I don't even think Morgan is interested in running. Also, doesn't he have a bunch of DUI's?

[windjammer]

Is Morgan interested in the job?

[Donerail]

Morgan is actively exploring a run for governor. He has a DUI from '97, after which he stopped drinking for four years (and I doubt "he was an alcoholic 20 years ago but has since recovered" is a particularly impactful piece of oppo, but who knows)

[libertpaulian]

Morgan is actively exploring a run for governor. He has a DUI from '97, after which he stopped drinking for four years (and I doubt "he was an alcoholic 20 years ago but has since recovered" is a particularly impactful piece of oppo, but who knows)

If "grab 'em by the pussy" isn't enough to sink someone's chances for PRESIDENT, certainly a DUI from  20 years ago should be harmless. 

Plus, Dumbya had a DUI and that didn't stop him.

[Dereich]

I spoke with a partner in his firm who doesn't think he'll run, but he's certainly shown signs that he intends to do so. I'm just going to assume that he'll run until he definitively rules himself out.

[pbrower2a]

Then you might be legally blind, because he's barely breaking 40% in his approval ratings in every single poll.

Except for Rasmussen....

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I wouldn't be surprised no matter what Morgan does. He could be floating a bid to get readied for a congressional campaign/some other office, he might not run period, or he might run and win. I think from what little I know of him that he could be a good Governor, but I'll stick with Putnam on the whole.

[JoshPA]

Then you might be legally blind, because he's barely breaking 40% in his approval ratings in every single poll.

they are from the same net works useing the same outdated tatics that cause them to fail to predict the 2016 race polls.

[Virginiá]

they are from the same net works useing the same outdated tatics that cause them to fail to predict the 2016 race polls.

Haven't we already been over that numerous polls were within their MoE, and others not really off by that much otherwise?

Also Gallup didn't do horse race polling this cycle, and Gallup shows pretty bad approvals for someone who should be enjoying their honeymoon phase.