Texas Senate 2018... Who will be the Dem nom ...O'Rourke or Castro?

[SCNCmod]

1) Will Joaquin Castro get in the race.... and who would win O'Rourke or Castro?

2) And do either have a chance of upsetting Cruz?

3) Also... why is Julian Castro not thinking about running? Is he looking at Governor or potentially the Presidential Primary?

[Figueira]

My guess is that Joaquin Castro would win such a primary, and he would be the stronger GE candidate. Being Hispanic and from the more populous side of Texas are net positives in both the primary and the general, I'd imagine.

I hope O'Rourke doesn't run. I like him in the House and I think he'd be a bad statewide candidate.

[Young Conservative]

Who cares nether has a change of making it Close

[Indy Texas]

My guess is that Joaquin Castro would win such a primary, and he would be the stronger GE candidate. Being Hispanic and from the more populous side of Texas are net positives in both the primary and the general, I'd imagine.

I hope O'Rourke doesn't run. I like him in the House and I think he'd be a bad statewide candidate.

O'Rourke has imposed term limits on himself so he's retiring from the House either way.

[Figueira]

My guess is that Joaquin Castro would win such a primary, and he would be the stronger GE candidate. Being Hispanic and from the more populous side of Texas are net positives in both the primary and the general, I'd imagine.

I hope O'Rourke doesn't run. I like him in the House and I think he'd be a bad statewide candidate.

O'Rourke has imposed term limits on himself so he's retiring from the House either way.

Oh, right. He might as well run in that case, but I'd rather if he lost the primary.

[Cynthia]

Henry Cuellar, although he's devoid of statewide profile.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Who cares nether has a change of making it Close

TED CRUZ running in a Trump midterm weakened by a Trumpist primary challenger... will probably still win but it'll buy much less than a generic R.

[President Johnson]

Julian Castro probably. But he will lose to Rafael. Texas is still not ready for a Democratic senator. Maybe next time; in 2024.

[PAK Man]

I'd be happy with either one of them. Democrats need to start seriously challenging every seat, regardless of how difficult it looks on paper. Republicans always seem to find candidates for every office, yet Democrats always fail. I've never figured out why this is.

[Kingpoleon]

1) Will Joaquin Castro get in the race.... and who would win O'Rourke or Castro?

2) And do either have a chance of upsetting Cruz?

3) Also... why is Julian Castro not thinking about running? Is he looking at Governor or potentially the Presidential Primary?

1. Castro would win a primary.
2. If Trump's approvals are below, say, 40%, and his disapprovals are over 60%, Joaquin could beat Cruz if he ran as a moderate.
3. Julian Castro seems to have no legislative ambitions. IIRC he didn't like his time on the City Council.

[Vosem]

Castro would win a primary, but I don't think he's likely to run. Texas is still quite red, even in a Trump midterm, and it would be an unnecessary risk to take. Having to get past O'Rourke in the primary adds another element of risk to it. So, I doubt it.

[krazen1211]

I seem to remember when the liberals thought Abortion Barbie would come close in Texas.

[Kevin]

I seem to remember when the liberals thought Abortion Barbie would come close in Texas.

Even in a bad Trump Midterm I still don't think Castro or O'Rourke would even come close.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I seem to remember when the liberals thought Abortion Barbie would come close in Texas.

In a midterm with an unpopular incumbent and an unpopular republican president she would have come within single digits (but still would have lost).

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Unless Trump completely craters and the Republican majority is tied to him, I don't think Castro would win but he'd still likely win the primary. That said, it'd be hilarious if Ted Cruz lost to a guy named Castro.

[heatcharger]

I'd really like to see Mark Cuban run. I think if the national mood is dark enough for Republicans, Cruz might have to put in some effort to get reelected, and Cuban could be the one guy who could make him look bad even in Texas.