Will Darrell Issa lose in 2018?

[I’m not Stu]

Will he lose next year?

[I’m not Stu]

I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

[BuckeyeNut]

I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

[I’m not Stu]

I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

I'm surprised he already announced running this early. What if some other Democrat advances to November and Applegate finishes third in the primary?

[SATW]

Darrell Issa will win again in a tight match, i think and hope.

[I’m not Stu]

I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

I'm surprised he already announced running this early. What if some other Democrat advances to November and Applegate finishes third in the primary?

No other Democrat in the district exceeds Applegate's stature. Democrats have pretty much already coalesced around him, too. If I was to bet this far out, I think this district is on borrowed time for Republicans, whether Issa runs or not.

Democrats from other districts can run in CA-49. One can run in a district without living there as long as they live in the same state.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm well aware of the rules. But they'd be stupid to get anyone else to do it. Applegate is sufficient, and is probably favored anyway in 2018.

Would centrists potentially vote for Applegate?

[I’m not Stu]

Here, it says there was no middle ground in the Issa-Applegate race. It says Applegate is a progressive firebrand similar to Bernie Sanders. He doesn't seem to be a moderate like Lou Correa (D-CA-46).
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/issa-730480-applegate-campaign.html

[GlobeSoc]

This seat would be one of the first to go in a backlash against republicans. so probably.

[NeverAgain]

We can only hope.

[Xing]

I'm not too optimistic about this race.

[Suburbia]

No. He will win 56-44 in 2018.

[Figueira]

I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

I'm surprised he already announced running this early. What if some other Democrat advances to November and Applegate finishes third in the primary?

No other Democrat in the district exceeds Applegate's stature. Democrats have pretty much already coalesced around him, too. If I was to bet this far out, I think this district is on borrowed time for Republicans, whether Issa runs or not.

Democrats from other districts can run in CA-49. One can run in a district without living there as long as they live in the same state.

There's a reason why people rarely do that, though. It's much easier to get elected if you live in the district.

[Kingpoleon]

Applegate was charged with stalking and harassing his wife, right?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Hopeful both him and Rohrbacher lose.

[Vosem]

Yes, I don't see Issa surviving, considering the unpopularity of Trump, both broadly and in this district, and the likelihood of Democrats targeting this seat much more strongly in 2018 than they did in 2016. In fact, I tend to think it's pretty much lost for the GOP bar Issa either retiring or getting primaried (the latter I don't see happening, the former might be a possibility).

Also, CA-Gov has always been Issa's dream; he's far from a perfect candidate but he'd definitely be a better option than Peter friggin Thiel. If I were him, I'd go for that.

Hopeful both him and Rohrbacher lose.

If Democrats are serious about the whole "Russia is a threat to national security" thing, they should go after Rohrabacher hard.

[Vosem]

If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

I don't think this is necessarily true if there is a swing to Democrats in areas where Hillary Clinton did very well (ie, well-off suburbs), or indeed if there is simply a swing in Southern California, which in 2016 behaved like a world apart from the rest of the United States. A traditionally hawkish, wealthy, and Clinton-voting place with a congressman who has come to be somewhat out of step with his own district might swing very strongly even if the country as a whole doesn't.

As a very out-there suggestion, if Democrats want to make "the Russian threat" a part of their platform, and attack Rohrabacher on that issue, Michael McFaul could be an interesting candidate to run here.

[Torie]

I doubt he will run for re-election.

[I’m not Stu]

If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

It's a conservative-leaning district. I wonder if I could run as a Blue Dog Democrat there (conservative, but to the left of Rohrabacher). A small Southern part of my hometown (Garden Grove) is in CA-48. My coalition would be never-Trump conservatives, moderate Republicans, Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, and college-educated whites. It's an open primary state; Republicans could vote for me in the primery. Would It be a good idea for me to run there?

[Suburbia]

No. He will win 56-44 in 2018.

How much will Bob Menendez get crushed by too, while you're looking into your crystal ball?

NJ-SEN is Likely D/Lean D. Anytime the corruption story reemerges, it'll be Lean D/Tilt D/Tossup.

[I’m not Stu]

If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

It's a conservative-leaning district. I wonder if I could run as a Blue Dog Democrat there (conservative, but to the left of Rohrabacher). A small Southern part of my hometown (Garden Grove) is in CA-48. My coalition would be never-Trump conservatives, moderate Republicans, Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, and college-educated whites. It's an open primary state; Republicans could vote for me in the primery. Would It be a good idea for me to run there?

I mean, if you feel you have the background for it and feel that you could raise the insane amount of money that a competitive congressional campaign requires, why not? You'd probably need to contact the DCCC for advice though, not some anonymous online forum.

I do feel I have the background for it. What if I could raise the large amount of money somehow? I feel that Republican votes in the primary plus moderate Democrats could help me if I decide to run someday.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

The West coast didn't follow national trends at all in 2014 and to a lesser extent in 2016, so there's a good chance that won't even be necessary.

[I’m not Stu]

If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

Assemblyman/Former Anaheim mayor Tom Daly could run for Rohrabacher's seat (especially because CA-46 is already represented by a Democrat and CA-48 is a neighboring district). Much of CA-AD-69 is in Santa Ana. Parts of Santa Ana are in CA-48. Daly would be the strongest potential candidate I can think of.

[I’m not Stu]

No. He wouldn't. Again, people who don't live in the district tend to fare much worse than local candidates. For like the tenth time.

Not Grace Napolitano, who lives in Norwalk, but doesn't represent any part of Norwalk (Linda Sanchez represents all of Norwalk). I only suggested Daly because CA-48 has a weak Democratic bench.

[Nyvin]

Also, CA-Gov has always been Issa's dream; he's far from a perfect candidate but he'd definitely be a better option than Peter friggin Thiel. If I were him, I'd go for that.

Come on...there is no fricking way California would ever elect Issa as governor...that's just beyond insane to even think about