Will Darrell Issa lose in 2018?

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Issa retires he will become a lobbyist or the CEO of some conservative thinktank.  He's probably already looking for a new job.

[JerryArkansas]

Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

[Greedo punched first]

Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

California has an independent redistricting commission to make districts fair. The state's legislature doesn't handle redistricting.

[DrScholl]

Fair or not, if the San Diego portion grows more than the Orange County portion, this district will move further in San Diego County. It's not really a matter of partisanship, but one of actual population growth.

[RINO Tom]

Nah, I bet he hangs on.

[JerryArkansas]

Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

California has an independent redistricting commission to make districts fair. The state's legislature doesn't handle redistricting.

I know.  Someone can still be drawn out even with a non-partisan commission.  It's why I mentioned the growth in Orange and San Diego County.  If that holds up, the 49 will have to be entirely based in San Diego, which will make it much more Dem.

[Greedo punched first]

Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

California has an independent redistricting commission to make districts fair. The state's legislature doesn't handle redistricting.

I know.  Someone can still be drawn out even with a non-partisan commission.  It's why I mentioned the growth in Orange and San Diego County.  If that holds up, the 49 will have to be entirely based in San Diego, which will make it much more Dem.

That might happen, but it's too early to tell what the districts will look like. Population growth could reverse course, especially if house prices go up. Issa's district might even get a new number after redistricting.