1/17/17 CNN ORC Poll: Trump Approval at 40%

[Rjjr77]

National polls are worthless. Tell me what it is in Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

[peterthlee]

National polls are worthless. Tell me what it is in Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

I agree with this, but don't expect the state polls to be more accurate in 2018 and 2020.

Yes, pollings always have errors. 2016 creates an extraordinary crisis for polling industry in the US. However, approval for a particular minister has been conducted nationwide, hasn't it?

[jamestroll]

Nationally polling was not horribly bad this past cycle. The numbers were just interpreted wrong it. Polling got Hillary's support right but not Trump's. Apparently because of shy Trump voters.

Also at some point polling strategies will be fixed. We are at the point now where phone polling is sucking, but we do not have the right tools of methodology for internet polling. Unfortunately cell phones can not be auto dialed like landlines can.

But just because this board thinks Republicans will win every single election until the end of time does not mean they will!

[pbrower2a]

okay, a couple of things.

One, national polls were only off by 2-3 percentage points. State polls were terrible in WI/MI/PA, states where there wasn't much polling in the final days of the election. So we can trust approval rating polls to be accurate.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

Three, it's not guaranteed to be this bad for Trump forever. He could see higher approvals as time passes.

He will need miracles.

State polls were off badly for the three surprising states that Trump won.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were polled frequently, but not often enough at the end.

Trump got a surge in the last few days of the campaign. Polls usually do not show sudden changes. 

[Blackacre]

Yeah, Republicans might as well concede 2018, 2020 and 2022 at this point. Atlas and the polling industry never get it wrong, after all.

Yeah, as if anyone was saying that here.

I've seen two Democrats say that Republicans should focus on winning 2022 instead of 2018 and 2020 because Trump is guaranteed to be a disaster/one-termer. And yeah, someone on this forum predicted that the GOP would lose states like TX, UT and TN in 2018. I find it amazing that Democrats are still making these overconfident predictions, even after they got clobbered in 2014 AND 2016. But maybe third time's the charm for you guys, who knows?

As a rule of thumb, writing one election off and focusing on the next one only makes sense if you have a tardis. (Like if you knew a financial crash would come in 2023)

[Enduro]

Hopefully it'll go up because he does a good job, and not because of brainwashing. If it goes up, of course.

[ag]

Hopefully it'll go up because he does a good job, and not because of brainwashing. If it goes up, of course.

He will do a horrible job, but it will go up, at least for a while. There are certain things one can do to have the country  have a bit of a high for a while. Of course, long-term consequences will be awful, but early on it will seem like things are going well. Afterwards, when the withdrawal starts, he will start a war and have a jingo explosion. When the war will start going wrong, he will withdraw and declare himself a peacemaker and/or winner (to the general adulation) - only to start another war in a completely different place shortly thereafter.  At some point it will all boil over, but it will take a long time.

[Hillary Lost]

Ah more polls like the ones showing Clinton winning.  So if he's at 40% it's assumed he's at 60%.  Good job so far for Trump in the eyes of the people.

[Beet]

The final CNN poll I could find had Clinton up 49%-44% nationally, pre-Comey. If we adjust for the 2-point margin decrease Hillary suffered post-Comey, it was 48%-45% Clinton, only 1 point off from the final result.

[Hillary Lost]

Ah more polls like the ones showing Clinton winning.  So if he's at 40% it's assumed he's at 60%.  Good job so far for Trump in the eyes of the people.

This is so tone-deaf: he only outperformed the polling averages by 1-2. But believe whatever you want to believe.

Suuuuuuure even though polls consistently had him down by 5-10 including a poll 10 days before the election showing Clinton leading 50-38.  Then all of a sudden the liberal media shifts their polls to Clinton +5.  After she lost they rushed to their own defense to suggest the polls weren't wrong because they were in the margin of error.  Why didn't she hang on to her 17 point lead that Democrats bragged about in August.  How do Democrats feel now? So your 1-2 points off claim might be the case for the night before the election, but in reality she led by much more throughout the year.  Go back through the polls. I believe ABC had her up 50-38 in October.  Surely you don't believe there was a 10 point swing in such a short time.  Or do you?  Answer my question.

[Hillary Lost]

The final CNN poll I could find had Clinton up 49%-44% nationally, pre-Comey. If we adjust for the 2-point margin decrease Hillary suffered post-Comey, it was 48%-45% Clinton, only 1 point off from the final result.

Yes but the lead Democrats arrogantly bragged about such as the 12 point lead she had in mid October.  What happened?  Are you really thinking anyone believes there was a 10 point swing in the last couple of weeks?  No the fact of the matter is that Trump led the entire time and the liberal media had people like you walking in their footsteps.  I bet you were let down.  Which stage of grief are you in?

[Hillary Lost]

Ah more polls like the ones showing Clinton winning.  So if he's at 40% it's assumed he's at 60%.  Good job so far for Trump in the eyes of the people.

This is so tone-deaf: he only outperformed the polling averages by 1-2. But believe whatever you want to believe.

Suuuuuuure even though polls consistently had him down by 5-10 including a poll 10 days before the election showing Clinton leading 50-38.  Then all of a sudden the liberal media shifts their polls to Clinton +5.  After she lost they rushed to their own defense to suggest the polls weren't wrong because they were in the margin of error.  Why didn't she hang on to her 17 point lead that Democrats bragged about in August.  How do Democrats feel now? So your 1-2 points off claim might be the case for the night before the election, but in reality she led by much more throughout the year.  Go back through the polls. I believe ABC had her up 50-38 in October.  Surely you don't believe there was a 10 point swing in such a short time.  Or do you?  Answer my question.

This was literally right after Pussygate. A lot of Trump's cult dropped off for a few days because they were probably embarrassed by him, but that obviously didn't last. There, answered. Go ahead and ignore these polls as fake, and let's just see how 2018 and 2020 turn out if they continue to be piss-poor. 😉

The polls were fake news.  2018 oh yes Democrats will hold onto WV, ND, MT, MO, FL, OH, PA, and MI without a problem.  They might even pick up UT, TN, TX, and other red states the Republicans hold.  Get over it.

[Phony Moderate]

The problem for Trump is that he is disliked as a person, not just as President.

In the last couple of years of his presidency Bill Clinton had awful favorables whilst also having very good approvals. People can appreciate a job someone is doing even if they dislike them as a person, though of course it's not likely that Trump will do a good job.

[Hillary Lost]

The problem for Trump is that he is disliked as a person, not just as President.

In the last couple of years of his presidency Bill Clinton had awful favorables whilst also having very good approvals. People can appreciate a job someone is doing even if they dislike them as a person, though of course it's not likely that Trump will do a good job.

This is true plus remember the polls had Trump down by 17 in August.  What happened to the 272 firewall?

[Vosem]

To be fair to Trump, on the question of whether he will be a good or poor President people split equally, 48/48. It seems that a lot of people don't like the guy but, at least for now, are fine with, or have resigned themselves to, his politics.

[Hillary Lost]

To be fair to Trump, on the question of whether he will be a good or poor President people split equally, 48/48. It seems that a lot of people don't like the guy but, at least for now, are fine with, or have resigned themselves to, his politics.

And see what Democrats focus on instead?  Something showing him at 40%! Well whatever helps them sleep at night.  Hillary lost and they'll just have to deal with it.