1/17/17 CNN ORC Poll: Trump Approval at 40%

[Blackacre]

okay, a couple of things.

One, national polls were only off by 2-3 percentage points. State polls were terrible in WI/MI/PA, states where there wasn't much polling in the final days of the election. So we can trust approval rating polls to be accurate.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

Three, it's not guaranteed to be this bad for Trump forever. He could see higher approvals as time passes.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, Republicans might as well concede 2018, 2020 and 2022 at this point. Atlas and the polling industry never get it wrong, after all.

Yeah, as if anyone was saying that here.

I've seen two Democrats say that Republicans should focus on winning 2022 instead of 2018 and 2020 because Trump is guaranteed to be a disaster/one-termer. And yeah, someone on this forum predicted that the GOP would lose states like TX, UT and TN in 2018. I find it amazing that Democrats are still making these overconfident predictions, even after they got clobbered in 2014 AND 2016. But maybe third time's the charm for you guys, who knows?

As a rule of thumb, writing one election off and focusing on the next one only makes sense if you have a tardis. (Like if you knew a financial crash would come in 2023)