Do you want Joe Manchin to lose in 2018?

[jamestroll]

I created this thread because whether you title the thread "Will Joe Manchin lose in 2018" or "Do you want Joe Manchin to lose in 2018" the results will be the same at this point.

hahahahahah and they are! lmao. lmao.

[Suburbia]

No. I like him. He's a centrist. He didn't want to run for W.V. governor in 2016 because he wanted to change Washington. Washington is too polarized. He'll win, unless the W.V. GOP runs a superb candidate.

[Maxwell]

I'm an anomaly here - I think Manchin is very competitive for re-election and think he could win, but frankly don't care whether or not he wins.

[Vosem]

No, actually. I'd rather have a rural Democrat than a Republican who, at least in the immediate future, will feel compelled to vote in accordance with the Administration's wishes. I still think Manchin will lose to Jenkins, but I'd rather he not, and I'd probably vote for him (which puts me way out of step with the rest of West Virginia; I would've been voting against Manchin for years and years up to this point).

[RINO Tom]

@MTTreasurer

The question of why red states are more likely to support moderates from the other party than blue states does actually perplex me, but I think there's more to it than "red state voters are idiots."

I think it has more to do with retail politics. Small states are more likely to be Republican, and in smaller states, retail politics matters so much more because, with fewer voters, it actually becomes feasible. I think the reason why Tester and Heitkamp and Manchin were able to win is because of that. In Maryland, or Cali, or other blue states, you're probably dealing with bigger populations, making charismatic, moderate-sounding, people from the other party less able to succeed with that tactic.

Of course, that still leaves Missouri...

Yeah, the only Democratic state that comes to mind where this isn't the case is Maine (Susan Collins). But then again, Maine is hardly a deep blue state (especially today), so it's not a good comparison.

And don't get me wrong, voters in Democratic states who are voting against moderate Republican Senate candidates are absolutely doing the right thing. There is no reason why someone like Mark Kirk should represent Illinois in the Senate, for example. If I were a Democrat or Democratic-leaning, I'd definitely vote against people like Susan Collins (heck, I probably would have voted for Bellows in 2014 anyway, in all honesty).

Most ideological scorecards rate Manchin level with or to the right of Collins. Anyone who puts him to the right of Capito is delusional. Of course his populism is slightly manufactured - he was the CEO of a mining company and his daughter is the CEO of a pharmaceutical company - but he's not a totally fake moderate like McCaskill or Tester.

Manchin vs. Collins is very debatable (just ask RINO Tom ) but I agree with you on the rest. And like I said, I think he and Donnelly are the best Democratic Senators, not that it means much. 

Here's a comparison of Manchin's ratings to Collins's:

Manchin (R)

Hes's Prolife and Senator Collins is not.

If Joe Manchin were the Democratic nominee, it would be evidence that the Democrats were becoming a different kind of party then they have been becoming.

True, the accent of their nominee would be drastically different.

Uh.. if you're suggesting that Manchin's politics are even remotely similar to Hillary's, I have no idea how to even respond to that. Most ideological rankings actually place Collins to the left of Manchin, and sometimes even Donnelly, Heitkamp and/or Warner. Lisa Murkowski and Shelley Moore Capito are moderate conservatives, Susan Collins is a centrist at best. Get over it.

I'll take the link for those rankings now.

And Manchin pays lip service to cultural conservative tribalism while towing the party line on the big votes, just like Collins the other way.  Their perceptions as DINOs/RINOs is all, well, perception.

Last year, Manchin had a 33% rating from the ACU, while Collins had a 21% score.  Manchin also "defeated" Collins on the Heritage Action scorecard.  Manchin also has a 75% from the National Right to Life, compared to Collins's 25%.  Joe Manchin has a 45% score from the Family Research Council, compared to Collins's 27%.

On the other hand, Collins gets a 59% score from Planned Parenthood, compared to Manchin's 35%.  And, even if you don't care about values at all, Collins only gets a 25% from the Club for Growth, virtually identical to Manchin's 23% score.  And, Manchin beats her with Americans for Prosperity, 80% to 50%.

I don't think there is any reasonable argument to have Collins to the right of Manchin.

Those ratings are really stupid, bro.  At the end of the day, Susan Collins is going to be a GOP foot soldier on free trade, tax cuts and deregulation, while Manchin will come home to his Democratic buddies.  If you're entire world is social issues, fine.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes, but I like him so I won't mind if he wins (IMO, he will).

[MT Treasurer]

Speaking of Manchin, I think the guy is definitely the luckiest Senator now that Trump is president. He almost certainly would have been Blanched had Clinton won, but now he's very well-positioned to win reelection.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

@MTTreasurer

The question of why red states are more likely to support moderates from the other party than blue states does actually perplex me, but I think there's more to it than "red state voters are idiots."

I think it has more to do with retail politics. Small states are more likely to be Republican, and in smaller states, retail politics matters so much more because, with fewer voters, it actually becomes feasible. I think the reason why Tester and Heitkamp and Manchin were able to win is because of that. In Maryland, or Cali, or other blue states, you're probably dealing with bigger populations, making charismatic, moderate-sounding, people from the other party less able to succeed with that tactic.

Of course, that still leaves Missouri...

Yeah, the only Democratic state that comes to mind where this isn't the case is Maine (Susan Collins). But then again, Maine is hardly a deep blue state (especially today), so it's not a good comparison.

And don't get me wrong, voters in Democratic states who are voting against moderate Republican Senate candidates are absolutely doing the right thing. There is no reason why someone like Mark Kirk should represent Illinois in the Senate, for example. If I were a Democrat or Democratic-leaning, I'd definitely vote against people like Susan Collins (heck, I probably would have voted for Bellows in 2014 anyway, in all honesty).

Most ideological scorecards rate Manchin level with or to the right of Collins. Anyone who puts him to the right of Capito is delusional. Of course his populism is slightly manufactured - he was the CEO of a mining company and his daughter is the CEO of a pharmaceutical company - but he's not a totally fake moderate like McCaskill or Tester.

Manchin vs. Collins is very debatable (just ask RINO Tom ) but I agree with you on the rest. And like I said, I think he and Donnelly are the best Democratic Senators, not that it means much. 

Here's a comparison of Manchin's ratings to Collins's:

Manchin (R)

Hes's Prolife and Senator Collins is not.

If Joe Manchin were the Democratic nominee, it would be evidence that the Democrats were becoming a different kind of party then they have been becoming.

True, the accent of their nominee would be drastically different.

Uh.. if you're suggesting that Manchin's politics are even remotely similar to Hillary's, I have no idea how to even respond to that. Most ideological rankings actually place Collins to the left of Manchin, and sometimes even Donnelly, Heitkamp and/or Warner. Lisa Murkowski and Shelley Moore Capito are moderate conservatives, Susan Collins is a centrist at best. Get over it.

I'll take the link for those rankings now.

And Manchin pays lip service to cultural conservative tribalism while towing the party line on the big votes, just like Collins the other way.  Their perceptions as DINOs/RINOs is all, well, perception.

Last year, Manchin had a 33% rating from the ACU, while Collins had a 21% score.  Manchin also "defeated" Collins on the Heritage Action scorecard.  Manchin also has a 75% from the National Right to Life, compared to Collins's 25%.  Joe Manchin has a 45% score from the Family Research Council, compared to Collins's 27%.

On the other hand, Collins gets a 59% score from Planned Parenthood, compared to Manchin's 35%.  And, even if you don't care about values at all, Collins only gets a 25% from the Club for Growth, virtually identical to Manchin's 23% score.  And, Manchin beats her with Americans for Prosperity, 80% to 50%.

I don't think there is any reasonable argument to have Collins to the right of Manchin.

Those ratings are really stupid, bro.  At the end of the day, Susan Collins is going to be a GOP foot soldier on free trade, tax cuts and deregulation, while Manchin will come home to his Democratic buddies.  If you're entire world is social issues, fine.

Um, they have almost identical ratings from the Club for Growth, and Manchin does far better than Collins with Americans for Prosperity.  I honestly don't think it's close, that Manchin is to the right of Collins (which isn't usually the case with "moderates", but these two are pretty extremist in their moderation to the point where they fall on the other side more often than not).