2005-2006Gubernatorial projections (as of now)

[Senator X]

Alabama: WEAK Lean Democrat
Lucy Bexley would be the slight frontrunner, Roy Moore is a bit of a wildcard.  However, a lot can change, and this is a very conservitive state.  We'll have a better idea based on late March (06). 

Alaska: Toss up

I'll have to see polling in mid-06, definatly tight race ( keep in mind a Dem. here would be considered a Rep. in most other states.  Example Tony Knowles).  House minority leader (I forget his name) is the only Dem. who has announced his intention to run.  Once again a very Republican state.  Frank Murkowski is less popular then his daughter was, and Bush running.  Like Riely, a Republican Governor in a right Wing state attempted a major tax increase; go figure. 

Arizona: Safe Dem.
For the second time Republicans wreched defeat from the jaws of victory, it took a few months for them find a candidate (and he didn't vote, when he was on the ballot). 

Arkansas:  Toss Up
Win Rockefeller was easily a far better candidate then Asa Huchison.  Beebe is a strong candidate even without a  bloody primary.

California: toss up
Schwartzenager is in for a big fight!!!!

Colorado: Depends
If Dever's popular mayor (John something), or John Salazar (Ken won't run) runs it will be very close.  The currently announced Dems. are a joke.

Conneticut: Strong lean Republican
Jodi Rell has extreamly high approval ratings.  The odds of this happening seem to be low, but if Attorney General Bluthumal (I think that's how it's spelled) runs (according to politics one is a POTENTIAL candidate)...

More soon.

[Senator X]

Hawaii: Safe Repulican
Arizona for the Democrats.

Idaho: Safe Republican
No comment.

Illinois: Weak Lean Democrat
This is a liberal state, and there is a crowded (and already negitive) primary.

Iowa: Toss Up

Jim Nussle's intern issue as stated somewhere in a previous topic, is a problem, he's from a region of Iowa that still may not turn out big enough for him.  Not well known in (essential for any  statewide Rep.) western Iowa.  Ask me again when I see polls in mid 2006.  Depends who the Dems. nominate.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Definitely think Alaska will stay Republican.  They like being a parasite to the rest of the country by receiving $6.00+ to other states' $1 in federal funds.  Murkowski will stay so no one has to pay taxes.  If I were in charge, I would be on the Senate like lightning to make them withhold funds to Alaska.  When they have no roads on which to drive, we'll see what happens--probably won't raise taxes though!  It'd sure go a long way to balancing our budget if we didn't have to give AK their welfare check.

[Senator X]

Murkowski attempted a large tax increase.

[Senator X]

Gerogia: weakish lean Dem.
Cathy Cox will beat Sonny.  Increadably popular as secretary of state, and does well in to early to be relevent polls , I'm at a loss to explain why, then again the current Gov. does have a knack for angering Georgians...

Kansas: STRONG lean
Only thing keeping this from safe Dem. is the conservitive nature of the state.  The Reps. havn't even found a strong candidate.

Maryland: Depends

Doug Duncon (I just know I'm mispelling that) is charismatic, and a stronger candidate then O'Malley (history of statements that could be damiging when put out of context) and Erlich.  If Duncon wins the primary, lean Dem.

Massacusetts: Strong lean Dem.
If Rohmeny doesn't run leans Dem. Tom Riely is a very strong Dem., and barring some huge scandal will go from AG to Gov.

Michagan:strongish lean Dem.
Granholm may have low approvels, BUT the GOP hasn't found any good candidates.  I doubt Miller is dumb enough to run.  An increasingly liberal state

Minnesota: Depends
IF Mike Hatch runs (assuming the indepedence party nominates as big a joke as the only one running), real race don't know about other potential candidates.

Nevada: LEAN Rep.
Dina Titus is a very underrated candidate, and Gibbons has a history of making astondingly stupid coments, in a swing state...

New Hampshire: Safe Dem.
Lynch has to screw up a lot and badly to make this remotley cometitive.  I can't wait for him to unseat Sununu in 2008!

New Jersey: safe Dem.
New Jersey will elect the lesser of two evils (Corzine) I'd take Luatenburg over eather any day!
 

[Jake]

The simple fact that you put Nevada at tossup shows this is incredibly biased. Nevada is as safe for the Republicans as Arizona is for the Democrats.

[Senator X]

Lean Rep. might be better. (that's about as good as it could get for Reps.)

[Jake]

Alabama: WEAK Lean Democrat
Lucy Bexley would be the slight frontrunner, Roy Moore is a bit of a wildcard.  However, a lot can change, and this is a very conservitive state.  We'll have a better idea based on late March (06). 

Alabama is impossible to predict until the GOP primary is resolved. Tossup if Riley survives, weak lean GOP if not.

Alaska: Toss up

I'll have to see polling in mid-06, definatly tight race ( keep in mind a Dem. here would be considered a Rep. in most other states.  Example Tony Knowles).  House minority leader (I forget his name) is the only Dem. who has announced his intention to run.  Once again a very Republican state.  Frank Murkowski is less popular then his daughter was, and Bush running.  Like Riely, a Republican Governor in a right Wing state attempted a major tax increase; go figure. 

Murkowski is fairly safe unless a halfway decent Democrat enters the race. If Knowles can run again, he could win this, baring that though, Murkowski wins it. Strong Republican.

Arizona: Safe Dem.
For the second time Republicans wreched defeat from the jaws of victory, it took a few months for them find a candidate (and he didn't vote, when he was on the ballot). 

I agree. Safe Democrat

Arkansas:  Toss Up
Win Rockefeller was easily a far better candidate then Asa Huchison.  Beebe is a strong candidate even without a  bloody primary.

Beebe's chances for victory took a hit with Rockefeller's withdrawal. Hutchison can concentrate on the general election. Lean Republican

California: toss up
Schwartzenager is in for a big fight!!!!

Incumbency makes this a weak lean Republican though that may change if Arnold's problems get any worse.

Colorado: Depends
If Dever's popular mayor (John something), or John Salazar (Ken won't run) runs it will be very close.  The currently announced Dems. are a joke.

Beauprez has the advantage now and only Hickenlooper can stop him. For now, Strong GOP, if Mayor Hickenlooper enters, lean GOP.

Conneticut: Strong lean Republican
Jodi Rell has extreamly high approval ratings.  The odds of this happening seem to be low, but if Attorney General Bluthumal (I think that's how it's spelled) runs (according to politics one is a POTENTIAL candidate)...

Rell will run and win easily. You don't beat mid 70s approval ratings. Safe GOP

Hawaii: Safe Repulican
Arizona for the Democrats.

I agree. Safe GOP

Idaho: Safe Republican

Ditto above

Illinois: Weak Lean Democrat
This is a liberal state, and there is a crowded (and already negitive) primary.

Blagojevich's problems are large, but this race is like California. He should survive as he doesn't face the best opponents right now. Lean Democrat

Iowa: Toss Up
Jim Nussle's intern issue as stated somewhere in a previous topic, is a problem, he's from a region of Iowa that still may not turn out big enough for him. Not well known in (essential for any statewide Rep.) western Iowa. Ask me again when I see polls in mid 2006. Depends who the Dems. nominate.

Nussle is an excellent candidate and will win this race fairly easily for a non-incumbent. Strong GOP

Gerogia: weakish lean Dem.
Cathy Cox will beat Sonny.  Increadably popular as secretary of state, and does well in to early to be relevent polls , I'm at a loss to explain why, then again the current Gov. does have a knack for angering Georgians...

Cox hasn't even won the Primary yet. Perdue has the advantage of incumbency over both Cox and Taylor. Lean GOP if Taylor wins the primary, weaker Lean GOP if Cox wins.

Kansas: STRONG lean
Only thing keeping this from safe Dem. is the conservitive nature of the state.  The Reps. havn't even found a strong candidate.

Sebelius is safe unless Moran enters in which case the race is merely a strong Democrat.

Maryland: Depends

Doug Duncon (I just know I'm mispelling that) is charismatic, and a stronger candidate then O'Malley (history of statements that could be damiging when put out of context) and Erlich.  If Duncon wins the primary, lean Dem.

Both Duncan and O'Malley can defeat Ehrlich. For now, Tossup in both the primary and general. If the primary is very divisive, Ehrlich's re-election chances go up big. Tossup.

Massacusetts: Strong lean Dem.
If Rohmeny doesn't run leans Dem. Tom Riely is a very strong Dem., and barring some huge scandal will go from AG to Gov.

Romney is an incumbent, albeit an unpopular one. Reilly is not a great opponent. That said, this race is Lean Democrat and Safe Democrat if Romney retires.

Michagan:strongish lean Dem.
Granholm may have low approvels, BUT the GOP hasn't found any good candidates.  I doubt Miller is dumb enough to run.  An increasingly liberal state.

Michigan is actually trending GOP, but that's neither here nor there. Granholm is unpopular, but without a strong established candidate, the race still is Lean Democrat.

Minnesota: Depends
IF Mike Hatch runs (assuming the indepedence party nominates as big a joke as the only one running), real race don't know about other potential candidates.

If Pawlenty takes a big hit from the latest shutdown, Hatch's chances go up alot. For now, Lean GOP due to incumbency.

Nevada: LEAN Rep.
Dina Titus is a very underrated candidate, and Gibbons has a history of making astondingly stupid coments, in a swing state...

I've given my opinions above on this. The Dems have no one since Goodman said he wasn't planning to run. Gibbons should win easily. Safe-Strong GOP.

New Hampshire: Safe Dem.
Lynch has to screw up a lot and badly to make this remotley cometitive.  I can't wait for him to unseat Sununu in 2008!

I agree, Safe Democrat.

New Jersey: safe Dem.
New Jersey will elect the lesser of two evils (Corzine) I'd take Luatenburg over eather any day!

Open seat race with a popular incumbent Senator. This is Strong Democrat unless something happens. The real race is for Corzine's seat in '06.

[AkSaber]

The only reason Murkowski wanted tax increases was because of the state economy. It was facing a huge deficit and he wanted to fix the problem without dipping into the state savings account. The only tax increase that I can remember that he wanted was something like a $10 on each studded tire. But, he also cut spending. Mainly in the area of social welfare benefits.

[nini2287]

Iowa: Toss Up
Jim Nussle's intern issue as stated somewhere in a previous topic, is a problem, he's from a region of Iowa that still may not turn out big enough for him. Not well known in (essential for any statewide Rep.) western Iowa. Ask me again when I see polls in mid 2006. Depends who the Dems. nominate.

Nussle is an excellent candidate and will win this race fairly easily for a non-incumbent. Strong GOP

Nussle is a good candidate and should win the race by a small margin.  A 4-pt. lead isn't anything to write home about.

[Senator X]

Florida: STRONG GOP
Real race between Gallagar and Christ.

New Mexico: safe Dem.
Richardson's only real race will be for President.

New York: safe Dem.
Done deal.

Ohio STRONG Dem.
I live here Stricklend will beat Blackwell, Kasich (who isn't even running), Mongomery, and Petro.  And There's that GOP coin scandal, and Taft, and the state econemy...

Oklahoma: strong lean Dem.
Polls show Watts, everyone else badly loseing to Henery (Fallin isn't running).

Oregon: weakish lean dem.
reletivtly Dem. state.  Mannix is a weak challenger (should have won in 02). 

Pennsyalvania: STRONG Dem.
Rendell will win by 20-10%.  Check the polls.

Rhode Island: STRONG GOP
Check the polls.

[frenger]

Murkowski attempted a large tax increase.

Increase of what taxes?
Lumber tax?

[frenger]

New Hampshire: Safe Dem.
Lynch has to screw up a lot and badly to make this remotley cometitive.  I can't wait for him to unseat Sununu in 2008!

I agree, Safe Democrat.

Lynch is screwing up a lot. There has been a lot of contestation over cuts in school funding. Personaly, I think that's hunky dory, but the people aren't liking it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California is lean Democrat.

[TheresNoMoney]

Lynch is screwing up a lot. There has been a lot of contestation over cuts in school funding.

You have absolutely no clue what you're talking about and you're completely wrong.

[AuH2O]

California is lean Democrat.

lol

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't know how Arnold will be re-elected with such low approval ratings.

[AuH2O]

If they stay the same, he won't.

Almost every politicians' approval rating peaks around their election and then decline until the next election. Looking at their approval at its nadir is just not smart.

"I'll be baack."

[Sam Spade]

Jake's analysis is closer to being where things actually are, jdb, at this point out.

Just the facts. 

[frenger]

Lynch is screwing up a lot. There has been a lot of contestation over cuts in school funding.

You have absolutely no clue what you're talking about and you're completely wrong.

Ok. Everyone ahs happy with cuts in school funding. Am I right now?

[Jake]

Florida: STRONG GOP
Real race between Gallagar and Christ.

I wouldn't count the Democrats out right away. For now, the primary looks like lean Crist and the general looks like Lean GOP.

New Mexico: safe Dem.
Richardson's only real race will be for President.

I agree. Safe Democrat

New York: safe Dem.
Done deal.

With Pataki's dropout, this race goes from Strong Democrat to Safe Democrat.

Ohio STRONG Dem.
I live here Stricklend will beat Blackwell, Kasich (who isn't even running), Mongomery, and Petro.  And There's that GOP coin scandal, and Taft, and the state econemy...

The cloud of the Taft Admin will hang over this race which can only be bad for the GOP. Strickland has a slight advantage due to Taft, but if a fairly good candidate emerges from the GOP Primary, they can win it. Straight up Tossup at the time.

Oklahoma: strong lean Dem.
Polls show Watts, everyone else badly loseing to Henery (Fallin isn't running).

Henry should win this race fairly easily baring the entrance of Watts into the race. If Watts wants to be President, there's no better place to start than the Governor's mansion. If he enters, Weak Lean Democrat, if not Strong Democrat.

Oregon: weakish lean dem.
reletivtly Dem. state.  Mannix is a weak challenger (should have won in 02). 

Kulongoski will be able to win this race against the current crop of also rans. Strong Democrat.

Pennsyalvania: STRONG Dem.
Rendell will win by 20-10%.  Check the polls.

Looks like the GOP's best candidate Bruce Castor will not be running. For now, the GOP Primary is a Scranton/Swann race. If Swann turns out to be the political lightweight some say he is, Rendell will beat him handily (57-43). If not, Swann could make it close (52-48) and give Rendell a scare. If Scranton was to win the primary, he would be beaten badly by Rendell (56-44). I'll chalk this up as Lean Democrat for now. Strong Democrat if Scranton is the candidate.

Rhode Island: STRONG GOP
Check the polls.

Carcieri will win the race in Rhode Island that no one will be watching. Safe GOP

South Carolina

Sanford should be able to win this race again. He's had some problems that Ernest has alluded to in the past months, but things look to be going fairly well for next year. Strong GOP

South Dakota

Mike Rounds is as safe as any Governor in the country. Safe GOP.

Tennessee

Bredresen is in an interesting position. His base now consists largely of Republicans who may not support him come next fall. For now, I'd rate this as Strong Democrat.

Texas

The latest fundraising numbers tell the big story. Bell raised less than Friedman. The real race here is the GOP Primary where I expect Perry to beat Strayhorn. Safe GOP and Strong Perry

Vermont

Douglas may give up his sure re-election to run for Senate, or he may not. If he does, this race looks like Strong Democrat, if not, Strong Republican.

Wyoming

Freudenthal is another of the safe Mountain West Governors. Safe GOP.

Wisconsin

Both candidates can give Doyle a race, but I'd still place my money on a Doyle victory next fall. Looks to be Lean Democrat, maybe Strong Democrat depending on the GOP primary.

Nebraska

Again, the real race will be the GOP Primary. Governor Heineman is facing Nebraska legend Tom Osborne and will most likely lose when the people vote next year. If Heineman could abandon his run to face Sen. Nelson, the GOP could pickup that seat. Since he probably won't, Osborne will defeat him and then the punching bag the Democrats put up. Safe Republican and Strong Osborne.