Initial Inside Elections/Gonzales 2018 Senate ratings

[Heisenberg]

I think I can agree with most of those race ratings. I don't think Klobuchar, Stabenow, Heinrich, or Menendez are "Safe D". Paulsen could run in MN, Amash in MI, Martinez in NM, and Kean in NJ. It is definitely an uphill climb for Republicans in those states but anything is possible.

Oh come on, Amash? He has next to no blue-collar populist appeal, and a libertarian-type candidate is going to get crushed in Macomb County, and probably do poorly in the UP. Benishek, a yooper, would be the ideal Republican in Michigan.

I don't think Benishek would be a good candidate. He massively underperformed Romney in 2012

Of course he underperformed Romney: The UP is (usually) solid Republican at the presidential level, but pro-Blue Dog downballot. Benishek is an outsider with a blue-collar, working class background, a profile good for the UP (he should sweep every county there) and the rural areas, while being strong in Macomb. If not Benishek, who else? Maybe Candice Miller or Dave Trott?

[Heisenberg]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Yeah, I mean, how could people possibly think Brian Sandoval and Terry Branstad were safe in 2014, after Obama won their states in 2012!?

Those are governors, different from Senators. Governor races are WAY less partisan, and they're also affected by the winds in the state government as well as the national government.

[jamestroll]

Awww poor babies ... People going into a cryfest because a site makes ratings they slightly disagree with over 600 days before the election.

[Figueira]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Yeah, I mean, how could people possibly think Brian Sandoval and Terry Branstad were safe in 2014, after Obama won their states in 2012!?

Those are governors, different from Senators. Governor races are WAY less partisan, and they're also affected by the winds in the state government as well as the national government.

Collins might have been a better example.

But even with Collins, I'm not sure it was fair to call her Safe 2 years out. If Stabenow has consistent double digit leads in October 2018 (which isn't impossible) it will be pretty fair to call her Safe. Right now I think Likely is a fair rating for that seat.

[Blackacre]

The better parallel to Stabenow's situation would be:

How could you call Richard Burr safe when Obama just won North Carolina?

[Maxwell]

I think a better comparison for any "omg Michigan is competitive" thing is Indiana - How can we say Dan Coats is safe in Indiana in 2010 when Obama just won in 2008!

[MT Treasurer]

I think a better comparison for any "omg Michigan is competitive" thing is Indiana - How can we say Dan Coats is safe in Indiana in 2010 when Obama just won in 2008!

I doubt anyone ever thought that Coats could be in trouble in 2010, and MI is still much more competitive than IN. But yeah, while Stabenow is basically a generic liberal Democrat and not really a good fit for her state, beating her won't be easy. I wouldn't rule out an upset if Trump is popular, but I'm not sure which Republican could actually make it a race. I'd also rate it Likely D at this point, but definitely not Safe.

[jamestroll]

I think a better comparison for any "omg Michigan is competitive" thing is Indiana - How can we say Dan Coats is safe in Indiana in 2010 when Obama just won in 2008!

Yo dude Obama won Indiana last year and elected three dems in Congress in 2006 AND reelected them . Ellsworth defeated an incumbent by the largest margin of any new Democrat in 2006. No damn way coats can defeat Ellsworth in 2010. this is the Obama nation now. Get ova it dude

[windjammer]

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

This is dumb.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

This is dumb.

Joe Manchin is basically a moderate republican. If you're a democrat who wants a caucus that is more ideologically pure than it currently is, it only makes sense that you would seek to kick him out.

[jamestroll]

Mr. Dragon ,

Do you really think all elections will exactly match 2016 forever? No midterm recently has matched the previous presidential election well so there is no reason to think 2018 will be just like 2016.

Sure we are polarized but candidates, level of office, campaigns, circumstances and climate do matter.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mr. Dragon ,

Do you really think all elections will exactly match 2016 forever? No midterm recently has matched the previous presidential election well so there is no reason to think 2018 will be just like 2016.

Sure we are polarized but candidates, level of office, campaigns, circumstances and climate do matter.

No, I don't. But outside of someone who is extremely popular (which Stabenow isn't), no senate democrat in a state that a republican presidential candidate just carried starts out completely safe, and no senate republican in a state that a democratic presidential candidate just carried is completely safe. (And that's what a Safe category should mean - completely safe)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Trump's presidency won't be successful

[Heisenberg]

Hopefully, Trump's presidency won't be successful

You are such a hack with endless optimism. Also, if Nebraska is a toss-up, then why is Utah safe when there could be a split Republican base (a possibility I'm scared of).

[jamestroll]

Hopefully, Trump's presidency won't be successful

You are such a hack with endless optimism. Also, if Nebraska is a toss-up, then why is Utah safe when there could be a split Republican base (a possibility I'm scared of).

If Gop vote is split and Trump remains unpopular with Mormons UTAH is actually the Democrats best chance to pick up a seat in 2018.

So long as McAdams or potentially Matheson run. But obviously this will be another Alaska 2008.

[Figueira]

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

This is dumb.

Joe Manchin is basically a moderate republican. If you're a democrat who wants a caucus that is more ideologically pure than it currently is, it only makes sense that you would seek to kick him out.

Who cares how ideologically pure the caucus is? I care about the Senate as a whole. Since Manchin's opponent in this case is a Republican, the only person worth comparing to him is that Republican. I hate Manchin but he's better than any Republican from West Virginia.

[Young Conservative]

Ranking Billl Nelson as less safe than Sherrie Brown hurts my brain.

[Figueira]

I mean, a caucus that consists solely of (insert your favorite Senator here) would be the ideologically purest caucus ever. But it would also be completely pointless. You might as well support the Green Party.

[Cynthia]

-MI to likely rep

What?

[Cynthia]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Same reason Susan Collins is safe in ME. Sure, she isn't that moderate, but she's a good fit for the state.