Initial Inside Elections/Gonzales 2018 Senate ratings

[MT Treasurer]

Way too incumbent-friendly, if you ask me (especially NV, AZ, OH, IN, MO and MI).



http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/initial-2018-senate-ratings-map-filled-with-gop-opportunities
http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate

[Figueira]

Too incumbent friendly but not to an absurd degree like Cook.

[Xing]

Definitely incumbent-friendly, but I don't think any of these ratings are really that unreasonable, assuming a decent amount of uncertainty.

[jamestroll]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Honestly that site almost mirrors my initial views of the state of races to a T.

Of course if the election was held next Tuesday I would have these ratings:

GOP Pick Up: MO, IN, ND, OH.
Dem Pick Up: None

Toss Up: Nevada, Montana and Wisconsin.
Tilting Democrat: Florida, West Virginia and Pennsylvania
Lean Republican: Arizona

But the election is not being held next week. It is being held 656 days from now.

[Heisenberg]

I think I can agree with most of those race ratings. I don't think Klobuchar, Stabenow, Heinrich, or Menendez are "Safe D". Paulsen could run in MN, Amash in MI, Martinez in NM, and Kean in NJ. It is definitely an uphill climb for Republicans in those states but anything is possible.

Oh come on, Amash? He has next to no blue-collar populist appeal, and a libertarian-type candidate is going to get crushed in Macomb County, and probably do poorly in the UP. Benishek, a yooper, would be the ideal Republican in Michigan.

[windjammer]

I think I can agree with most of those race ratings. I don't think Klobuchar, Stabenow, Heinrich, or Menendez are "Safe D". Paulsen could run in MN, Amash in MI, Martinez in NM, and Kean in NJ. It is definitely an uphill climb for Republicans in those states but anything is possible.

Oh come on, Amash? He has next to no blue-collar populist appeal, and a libertarian-type candidate is going to get crushed in Macomb County, and probably do poorly in the UP. Benishek, a yooper, would be the ideal Republican in Michigan.

I don't think Benishek would be a good candidate. He massively underperformed Romney in 2012

[windjammer]

Anyway, answering TNvolunteer:
My changes :
-MT, NV and OH to toss up
-MI to likely rep
-MO, ND and IN to lean Rep
-PA to likely dem
-AZ to lean rep

Incumbent friendly except PA but not by much, usually a different of rating by only one (for example lean rep instead of toss up)

[Maxwell]

I don't think there's anyone on the Michigan bench that can replicate Trump's success in the state. Stabenow is probably fine for now - she'll probably face some head-fake candidate like Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley or something that seems like a good candidate on the outset but in reality probably can't do it.

Remember when we thought Terri Lynn Land had a shot?

The problem with thinking Klobuchar, Heinrich, or Menendez are potentially competitive is that it ignores the current state of the GOP in those states. In Minnesota, GOPers massively under-performed Donald Trump, to the point where Democrats won three double digit Trump districts. In New Mexico, the Martinez administration is fading fast and most of the GOP headliners there (Mayor Richard Berry, the Lieutenant Governor, other people) are running for Governor in 2018. In New Jersey, Christie has shipwrecked the GOP there. GOP might not be able to compete with Menendez even if they wanted to.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think I can agree with most of those race ratings. I don't think Klobuchar, Stabenow, Heinrich, or Menendez are "Safe D". Paulsen could run in MN, Amash in MI, Martinez in NM, and Kean in NJ. It is definitely an uphill climb for Republicans in those states but anything is possible.

Oh come on, Amash? He has next to no blue-collar populist appeal, and a libertarian-type candidate is going to get crushed in Macomb County, and probably do poorly in the UP. Benishek, a yooper, would be the ideal Republican in Michigan.

I don't think Benishek would be a good candidate. He massively underperformed Romney in 2012

And his political instincts are just terrible. I think he endorsed Herman Cain too (or another gadfly) in the 2012 primaries and was the only Congressman to do so.

And who really cares about the UP (in a statewide election)? It doesn't even have enough people to constitute it's own CD.

[Blackacre]

I'd move Nevada to tossup, Arizona to Lean R, West Virginia to Likely D, Wisconsin to Lean D, Michigan to Lean D, Missouri to Tilt R, Indiana to Tilt R, and Pennsylvania to tossup, but that's all. Incumbency is a strong advantage after al, especially in a midterm year that will probably benefit the Dems.

[PAK Man]

They're way too harsh on Manchin. He's a perfect fit for West Virginia and can probably win even if the state's red. There's also a chance that state might give Trump huge backlash if he's doing poorly (promising to bring jobs back and none come). I have him as Likely D in my ratings.

I think Stabenow will be fine. Everybody always says she's in danger and then she ends up winning without too much trouble.

Same situation with Nelson; every year he gets a hyped up challenger that always implodes. I'd move him to Leans D.

Heller should be a tossup and Flake should be Leans R.

Also, I feel like King should be Likely I/D.

Otherwise, I'm pretty much fine with the rest.

[MT Treasurer]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Well, I agree, I just don't think it makes much sense to rate IN/MO Tossups and then rate NV Lean R and AZ Likely R. Should McCaskill and Donnelly win reelection, it almost certainly means that Heller is headed for a double digit loss and that Flake is in big, big trouble. There is no universe in which Democrats hold IN and MO but don't pick up NV or AZ (unless the NV Dems nominate another Shelley Berkley). Incumbency isn't as powerful as it once used to be.

[jamestroll]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Well, I agree, I just don't think it makes much sense to rate IN/MO Tossups and then rate NV Lean R and AZ Likely R. Should McCaskill and Donnelly win reelection, it almost certainly means that Heller is headed for a double digit loss and that Flake is in big, big trouble. There is no universe in which Democrats hold IN and MO but don't pick up NV or AZ (unless the NV Dems nominate another Shelley Berkley). Incumbency isn't as powerful as it once used to be.

I do not think Senate races move so uniformly. That is just an Atlas Fantasy.

All that site is doing is making early educated guesses. It would be just as valid to make a projection based on what would happen if the election was held today which would of course result in a lot of Republican pick ups.

If you do not like that site's ratings just make your own site. It is better than getting all emotional over it.

[Figueira]

Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

[MT Treasurer]

Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

Heisenberg also made it pretty clear that WI was much more competitive than NH. And quite frankly, it should have been obvious to everyone.

[jamestroll]

Sorry if I came off as rude. I just don't want to put too much stock into any of these ratings right now.

And I supported Romney in 2012. So if I like a Democratic Senator, it means they are a good senator. End of story.

[Maxwell]

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

[jamestroll]

also @IndyRep,

Pit told me that McCaskill is talented and could well win re-election, so I guess it is true.

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

lmao ha ha

[Maxwell]

also @IndyRep,

Pit told me that McCaskill is talented and could well win re-election, so I guess it is true.

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

lmao ha ha

there's a difference between fighting for your states interests or whatever and being a full-on Lieberman.

[jamestroll]

also @IndyRep,

Pit told me that McCaskill is talented and could well win re-election, so I guess it is true.

For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

lmao ha ha

there's a difference between fighting for your states interests or whatever and being a full-on Lieberman.

Lieberman was scum. Just a dangerous war hawk.

But it is easy to say you oppose the Iraq War now so many years after the fact. Though the tide did clearly begin to turn in Mid-2005. And I agree that Lieberman was from a state that clearly opposed the war pre mid 2005 so his actions were not excusable.

[Figueira]

Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

Heisenberg also made it pretty clear that WI was much more competitive than NH. And quite frankly, it should have been obvious to everyone.

Well Wisconsin was not more "competitive" than New Hampshire. It was just more Republican.

[Vosem]

Pretty reasonable, on the whole. Brown and Nelson need switched (Republicans definitely have better odds of picking up OH and FL), and I'd move Tester and Flake a degree toward the center; both of them seem overestimated. Otherwise, looks fine.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Because a) Trump won that state by like .001% of the vote after campaigning there all the time so it's not like it's solid red, b) she isn't that unpopular, and c) the local GOP in Michigan despite Trump winning isn't popular due to Flint

[Xing]

Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Yeah, I mean, how could people possibly think Brian Sandoval and Terry Branstad were safe in 2014, after Obama won their states in 2012!?