Why was polling showing a close race in the 1980 election

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean Carter was even leading even in early October according to wikipedia past election polls , so did that many people really make up their minds in the last minute . Even the last poll shows reagan only winning by 3 points instead of the 10 points he won by. I mean even this year the polls were not as wrong as that .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

[Mr. Smith]

Reagan was  considered too conservative and the Iran Hostage Crisis was looking to be resolved..before a rather convenient little monkey wrench was thrown into that.

That and debates actually mattered back then on some level.

Also, Reagan picked off some of Anderson's support.

[Mr.Phips]

Except for in that final poll, Carter was generally stuck at around 40% and rarely moved much higher.  Even though Reagan was usually in the high thirties/low forties as well, he picked up virtually all undecideds and got a chunk of Anderson supporters.  The race looked close due to their being so many undecideds and Anderson polling higher than he ended up.

[uti2]

I mean Carter was even leading even in early October according to wikipedia past election polls , so did that many people really make up their minds in the last minute . Even the last poll shows reagan only winning by 3 points instead of the 10 points he won by. I mean even this year the polls were not as wrong as that .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

Because it was a legitimately a close race, and Carter would've won had he bombed Iran.

[The_Doctor]

Reagan had a lead in the final month and probably had one in September and August. The electoral college was shaping up to be pretty Reagan in September 1980. Also the polling outfits back in 1980 was Gallup, I think. Could be it but I remember history indicating Reagan had a lead for most of the campaign.

[Chinggis]

I mean Carter was even leading even in early October according to wikipedia past election polls , so did that many people really make up their minds in the last minute . Even the last poll shows reagan only winning by 3 points instead of the 10 points he won by. I mean even this year the polls were not as wrong as that .

1980 is kind of a perfect storm, in terms of the results. I remember reading somewhere that Carter's pollster calculated a worst-case scenario in 1978/1979 that resulted in Carter carrying only eight states- Georgia, Minnesota, Hawaii, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Arkansas (DC too, of course). That was laughed off but it ended up being even worse... Carter shipped Cuban refugees into Arkansas and they rioted (or something- I'm hazy on this?), and that cost him an unwinnable state, while John Anderson stole a bunch of environmentally conscious yuppies' votes which cost him unwinnable Massachusetts. Sometimes a loser is a loser.

BUT: here's the results if you apply, say, a uniform six-point swing toward Carter:

So Reagan wins 341-197, 48-44 in the popular vote. I don't think many people at the time would have been surprised by that result (except for Maine and Vermont, maybe- note they both flip in this scenario!). If Carter was just a little less inept or unlucky... if the Ayatollah released the hostages before Election Day... if if if.

EDIT: I can't post the map but Carter would have won the South (minus Texas, Florida, Virginia) and added Wisconsin/Delaware/New York/Massachusetts/Vermont (!)/Maine including both congressional districts (!!)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I mean Carter was even leading even in early October according to wikipedia past election polls , so did that many people really make up their minds in the last minute . Even the last poll shows reagan only winning by 3 points instead of the 10 points he won by. I mean even this year the polls were not as wrong as that .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

Because it was a legitimately a close race, and Carter would've won had he bombed Iran.

The map indicates that it was not legitimately close at all.  And it's doubtful that Carter would have won under any circumstance, given the bad economy, his low job approval, and his weakness on other, non-Iran foreign policy issues.