Will 3rd Parties get less votes in 2020?

[SCNCmod]

I assume that many people who voted 3rd party as sort of a protest vote .... did so thinking there was no Chance Trump would win...

Because of the Trump win (and how close the election was, despite what the polls predicted)... Do you think 3rd Party Candidates will get far less support in 2020?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Depends on whether or not the Democrats nominate another unpopular candidate.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Probably.  I voted for Kerry in 2004 (instead of Nader) because I was worried Bush would win.  I was living of course in a very blue state, but at the time I had no clue how elections worked.  That's true for most people so I'm guessing 3rd parties will be demonized, especially by Democrats.

Also, the candidates will be a factor.  For example, Jill Stein had said that if Bernie had won the Democratic nomination she would have endorsed him.  If Bernie or some other non-corporatist is the Democratic party nominee, the Green Party and other small 3rd parties such as the Working Families Party or the Socialist Alternative would endorse him/her.

Finally Gary Johnson was a legitimate candidate (a former governor with another former governor as his running mate) and I doubt the libertarians will be able to recruit another candidate like him.

If 3rd parties do better in 2020 than they did last year, our democracy is in danger.

[JoshPA]

Probably.  I voted for Kerry in 2004 (instead of Nader) because I was worried Bush would win.  I was living of course in a very blue state, but at the time I had no clue how elections worked.  That's true for most people so I'm guessing 3rd parties will be demonized, especially by Democrats.

Also, the candidates will be a factor.  For example, Jill Stein had said that if Bernie had won the Democratic nomination she would have endorsed him.  If Bernie or some other non-corporatist is the Democratic party nominee, the Green Party and other small 3rd parties such as the Working Families Party or the Socialist Alternative would endorse him/her.

Finally Gary Johnson was a legitimate candidate (a former governor with another former governor as his running mate) and I doubt the libertarians will be able to recruit another candidate like him.

If 3rd parties do better in 2020 than they did last year, our democracy is in danger.

Gary would have crack the 5% had he not acted like a complete retard.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Probably.  I voted for Kerry in 2004 (instead of Nader) because I was worried Bush would win.  I was living of course in a very blue state, but at the time I had no clue how elections worked.  That's true for most people so I'm guessing 3rd parties will be demonized, especially by Democrats.

Also, the candidates will be a factor.  For example, Jill Stein had said that if Bernie had won the Democratic nomination she would have endorsed him.  If Bernie or some other non-corporatist is the Democratic party nominee, the Green Party and other small 3rd parties such as the Working Families Party or the Socialist Alternative would endorse him/her.

Finally Gary Johnson was a legitimate candidate (a former governor with another former governor as his running mate) and I doubt the libertarians will be able to recruit another candidate like him.

If 3rd parties do better in 2020 than they did last year, our democracy is in danger.

Gary would have crack the 5% had he not acted like a complete retard.

Possibly, but the next Libertarian candidate will probably be an even bigger retard.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Probably.  I voted for Kerry in 2004 (instead of Nader) because I was worried Bush would win.  I was living of course in a very blue state, but at the time I had no clue how elections worked.  That's true for most people so I'm guessing 3rd parties will be demonized, especially by Democrats.

Also, the candidates will be a factor.  For example, Jill Stein had said that if Bernie had won the Democratic nomination she would have endorsed him.  If Bernie or some other non-corporatist is the Democratic party nominee, the Green Party and other small 3rd parties such as the Working Families Party or the Socialist Alternative would endorse him/her.

Finally Gary Johnson was a legitimate candidate (a former governor with another former governor as his running mate) and I doubt the libertarians will be able to recruit another candidate like him.

If 3rd parties do better in 2020 than they did last year, our democracy is in danger.

Gary would have crack the 5% had he not acted like a complete retard.

No kidding; that was just painful.

[Pericles]

They will get less votes, the candidates, or at least the Democratic one, will be more popular than the historically unpopular ones in 2016, and people will feel a third party will be a wasted vote and will help the candidate they hate win.

[Nyvin]

Third party candidates always do better in the open races it seems like,  like 1980, 2000, and 2016.   2008 was kinda different because the 2000 election was more fresh on everyone's mind and the economic trouble of the time.

I think it's because once there's an incumbent it's much easier for the opposition party to form an "Us VS Them" mentality with the voters.

[Person Man]

Hope not!

[Vosem]

Probably; the third-party vote was high in 2016 because of prominent third-party candidates (especially Gary Johnson and the write-in Sanders movement in certain states) which are unlikely to run a second time; the Green Party vote also tends to go through cycles, where it reaches a peak wherein it costs the Democratic Party the presidency, crashes, then slowly rebuilds; the pattern suggests that 2016, like 2000, is a peak.

So, probably. There's always the chance that some new third-party movement emerges, like Perotism did in 1992, but that wouldn't be clear until closer to the election. Whether McMullin's movement will run a candidate again, and whether they'll do better or worse in 2020, also remains unclear; in principle they could get more widespread ballot access in 2020, but it's unclear whether a second effort will be made at all at this point.

[GoTfan]

Probably.

2016 was their chance to break out from obscurity, and they failed.

[catscanjumphigh]

I would think so based on the history of third party candidates, but if trends continue it would be about the same.