Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday

[Torie]

It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

Will the UK have any say in the rules of this 'US common market'?

What rules do you have in mind? Putting aside the free flow of peoples, in my ignorance, I am thinking of a common market without rules. There are no tariffs. No export incentives would apply. But that statement by me likely just reflects my ignorance on these matters.

The fix on the pharma thing, is that drug companies have to charge consumers the same price in both countries. The US should not be subsidizing drug research for the planet. The US should do that ASAP (pass a law that drug companies cannot price discriminate between nations, at least those that are relatively wealthy), and that will mitigate the "problem" vis a vis the UK, as drug prices go up some in the UK and elsewhere, while going down some in the US. Or the EU common market does without certain drugs, because they don't want to pay the freight.

[ag]

Once the stories of poor English deportees, who merely wanted to work as home attendants in Spain or Scotland, start dominating the press, it will not take long for that sentiment to change.

What's 'the press' grandad? You mean the internet?

Youth is that (dis)advantage that has a tendency of passing away fast.

Whatever the technology, it will be used to report about English boatpeople sinking the Channel.

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

I may be one, for what you know.

I have not said that the English will be desperate to join whatever. I have not even said, they will be invited to discuss it. I mean, it is not like Kosovars are.

You have been pretty damn tough on the illegal - and, actually, legal - Irish immigrants back in the day. Admittedly, at the time there were no real immigration restrictions (even the Chinese exclusion act comes relatively late in the story). But the Irish were treated pretty nastily: so nastily, in fact, that many of them chose to defect to the Mexican side in the Mexican American war. Using the Irish treatment as a precedent is not something the English would like at this point.

In any case, it would be difficult for the policy to openly discriminate these days. If I were a US prosecutor by the name of, say, Sherkhan Yadav, I would make it sure to apply the law very strictly here

And, of course, crossing the Atlantic on a rickety boat is a bit more complicated than crossing the Channel

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

[ag]

It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

Will the UK have any say in the rules of this 'US common market'?

What rules do you have in mind? Putting aside the free flow of peoples, in my ignorance, I am thinking of a common market without rules. There are no tariffs. No export incentives would apply. But that statement by me likely just reflects my ignorance on these matters.

It does. A free trade area without the rules is no different from no free trade area at all. What would prevent the US from doing what it threatens to do now vis-a-vis the rest of the world: say, punishing companies for importing (no, there would not be any tariffs: just if you happen to import some tissue paper, you cannot get governmetn contracts). Or from subsidizing exporters? Or from requiring licenses that can only be obtained by domestic products ("sure, you can import that Land Rover - but you cannot drive it in the US, because it violates our standards") Or from blocking imports on the grounds that Britain is just illegally re-exporting? Or from imposing punitive measures in response to the British "transgressions" ("you insist that cars have to have the steering wheel on the right - that is illegal protectionism!").  Who will decide on disputes?

Every free trade agreement ever concluded is all about rules: hundreds and thousands of them. Without the rules of this sort you would have, literally, no commitment to anything. Remember, there is a huge asymmetry here. There exist national governments and legislatures that are free to write the rules. But, normally, there do not exist supernational governments to do the same. Without very detailed commitments on both sides, and without an agreed upon system of dispute resolution, countries could easily pass in internal rules and regulations that would suck out all the benefits the other side got in the negotiation. And, of course, with both countries able to do this, there will be no benefits left.

[ag]

It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

To begin with, US common market is not on offer. Has never been. The only proper common market that US is a part of is called the United States of America. Even NAFTA is much less integrated (even if you forget about labor mobility). Anything remotely resembling the EU has never been agreed to by the US, since it has been created.

The other problem, of course, is, that, even if UK could enter into a common area with the US,  it would mean a very serious restructuring of the economy: and that always means pain. US has no need for the British banks: NY is doing fine as the finance center. Losing access to the European banking market (which seems to be inevitable, at this point) will not be compensated by gaining it from the US: if anything, Brits would, probably, want to prevent liberalization there, to avoid losing even their own market to New York. And this is just one instance of what could go wrong.

Should I continue?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

Taking your argument to its logical conclusion, the English will have no one to surrender to even if they wish to surrender.

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

Taking your argument to its logical conclusion, the English will have no one to surrender to even if they wish to surrender.

Might, actually, happen

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

And that is suppose to be a position of strength for the EU? Unable to make decisions, surrounded by hostile adversaries whose interests don't necessarily coincide with the EU continuing to exist, and numerous internal movements that could rise up and sever arms and limbs from the project.

[Torie]

Lots to think about isn't there? Thanks for the input Ag. I appreciate it.

[Blair]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

I wish we did. The reality that a lot of people (both the public and brexiters) didn't really plan out for Britain to work on trade deals, and the current, rather lazy assumption is 'we'll get the best deal possible because we're British' and the 'Germans sell us cars'. Likewise the fact that most countries will insist that we hand out visas in exchange for trade deals.

I'm much more optimistic of getting a trade deal of some-sort from the US, but that's not saying much because we're going to get an awful deal from the EU if we refuse single market membership. 

[ApatheticAustrian]

which cards can london play?

in fact i have heard the same nonsense from.....swiss (!!) friends, who claimed, swiss is cooperating with brussels on so many levels and could block important inner-european roads, that the EU MUST give in to their demands of regulations.

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

And that is suppose to be a position of strength for the EU? Unable to make decisions, surrounded by hostile adversaries whose interests don't necessarily coincide with the EU continuing to exist, and numerous internal movements that could rise up and sever arms and limbs from the project.

when you bargain, not being able to agee is strength.

[rob in cal]

  I bet Victor Orban of Hungary is jealous that he wasn't the first world leader to be able to visit the Donald, as he was one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Trump.  I do think that Trump will benefit politically  just from meeting, and having functional discussions with world leaders. Kind of enhances the whole presidential stature thing.

[Blair]

which cards can london play?

in fact i have heard the same nonsense from.....swiss (!!) friends, who claimed, swiss is cooperating with brussels on so many levels and could block important inner-european roads, that the EU MUST give in to their demands of regulations.

The view (among the brexiters) is that we'll get a tariff free deal because 'the germans sell us cards'. It didn't go down well

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/16/european-ministers-boris-johnson-prosecco-claim-brexit
 

[Mr. Morden]

Looking up info on May's Trump visit on Twitter leads one to some weird accounts:

https://twitter.com/50ShadesMay

[KingSweden]

Looking up info on May's Trump visit on Twitter leads one to some weird accounts:

https://twitter.com/50ShadesMay

Shouldn't have clicked. That can't be unread/unseen

[publicunofficial]

From London Times: