Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday

[ag]

Can only imagine what the meetings would be like between Trump and Corbyn if the latter actually manages to become PM while Trump is president.

It would be a love fest.

[ag]

Amazing. Hope they start the trade deal talks soon, showing other EU countries leaving it doesn't have to be economically disastrous. Also hoping for more foreign policy cooperation.

The UK cannot negotiate a trade deal with anyone while still being a member of the EU. So it won't happen until at least 2019.

And that will show to everyone that leaving the EU is economically disastrous.

What will the EU do if the UK starts negotiating now?  Throw the UK out of the EU?  While they can't go into effect before the UK leaves, there's no mechanism for penalizing the UK for negotiating ahead of time.

They can stop all negotiations for as long as the negotiations with the US go, forcing the UK, eventually, to accept whatever ultimatum it is given at the very end of the two-year period, without any time for a counter-proposal.

BTW, herein is another problem: I doubt the UK has enough qualified negotiators for both processes.

[ag]

She'll be the first foreign head of government to meet with Trump since his inauguration:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38707524

I hope her bodyguards are well trained. I'd hate to see US-British relations destroyed by President Pussygrabber's uncontrollable sex drive. Maybe the Secret Service can confiscate his tic-tacs?

I am sure he can wait till he sees Peña Nieto on the 31st. They will have pretty rough sex, and EPN will confirm it was consensual.

[ag]

Amazing. Hope they start the trade deal talks soon, showing other EU countries leaving it doesn't have to be economically disastrous. Also hoping for more foreign policy cooperation.

The UK cannot negotiate a trade deal with anyone while still being a member of the EU. So it won't happen until at least 2019.

And that will show to everyone that leaving the EU is economically disastrous.

What will the EU do if the UK starts negotiating now?  Throw the UK out of the EU?  While they can't go into effect before the UK leaves, there's no mechanism for penalizing the UK for negotiating ahead of time.

They can stop all negotiations for as long as the negotiations with the US go, forcing the UK, eventually, to accept whatever ultimatum it is given at the very end of the two-year period, without any time for a counter-proposal.

BTW, herein is another problem: I doubt the UK has enough qualified negotiators for both processes.

That seems to be what the EU plans on doing anyway, punish the UK for daring to leave and thereby keep other countries from doing the same.  If countries can't leave the EU, then perhaps it's time for the US (and other countries) to revive the lesser diplomatic position of envoy and only send an ambassador to the EU and send lower-ranked envoys to the member states thereof.

Oh, the EU will insist on UK leaving. And there will be no punishment. UK will simply adopt all EU rules and regulations wholesale (including those it has opted out from), and commit to adopting an changes EU is going to impose in the future, without participating in making those decisions.  It might take a decade or so to get there, but they will do this absolutely voluntarily: because they will find it worth doing.

And, no, there will be no punishment.

[ag]

You badly misread UK sentiment if you think that's the case.  There's no way the UK will agree to the common labor market.  It barely tolerated it once it's outside of the EU.  Similarly, the UK would be a fool to join in the common agricultural policy once it's exited the EU.  Economically, the UK might benefit it it did as you think it will, but history shows that all too often people, companies, and countries don't act in their own best economic interests because of a wide variety of reasons.  I don't think the UK (assuming it remains united) will do as you think it will and the resulting economic pain will be seen as a result of the EU punishing the UK for being uppity. That feeling will make UK acceding to EU rules even less likely, not more.

Oh, sure, there is that sentiment. It will pass, though, once the common labour market means that unemployed Brits get access to the jobs on the continent. Once the stories of poor English deportees, who merely wanted to work as home attendants in Spain or Scotland, start dominating the press, it will not take long for that sentiment to change. They will think it is an incredible achievement that the are allowed to get in. It will not happen at once, but it will certainly happen by, say, 2035.

Assuming, of course, we survive the next 10 years as a civilisation.

[ag]

Once the stories of poor English deportees, who merely wanted to work as home attendants in Spain or Scotland, start dominating the press, it will not take long for that sentiment to change.

What's 'the press' grandad? You mean the internet?

Youth is that (dis)advantage that has a tendency of passing away fast.

Whatever the technology, it will be used to report about English boatpeople sinking the Channel.

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

I may be one, for what you know.

I have not said that the English will be desperate to join whatever. I have not even said, they will be invited to discuss it. I mean, it is not like Kosovars are.

You have been pretty damn tough on the illegal - and, actually, legal - Irish immigrants back in the day. Admittedly, at the time there were no real immigration restrictions (even the Chinese exclusion act comes relatively late in the story). But the Irish were treated pretty nastily: so nastily, in fact, that many of them chose to defect to the Mexican side in the Mexican American war. Using the Irish treatment as a precedent is not something the English would like at this point.

In any case, it would be difficult for the policy to openly discriminate these days. If I were a US prosecutor by the name of, say, Sherkhan Yadav, I would make it sure to apply the law very strictly here

And, of course, crossing the Atlantic on a rickety boat is a bit more complicated than crossing the Channel

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

[ag]

It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

Will the UK have any say in the rules of this 'US common market'?

What rules do you have in mind? Putting aside the free flow of peoples, in my ignorance, I am thinking of a common market without rules. There are no tariffs. No export incentives would apply. But that statement by me likely just reflects my ignorance on these matters.

It does. A free trade area without the rules is no different from no free trade area at all. What would prevent the US from doing what it threatens to do now vis-a-vis the rest of the world: say, punishing companies for importing (no, there would not be any tariffs: just if you happen to import some tissue paper, you cannot get governmetn contracts). Or from subsidizing exporters? Or from requiring licenses that can only be obtained by domestic products ("sure, you can import that Land Rover - but you cannot drive it in the US, because it violates our standards") Or from blocking imports on the grounds that Britain is just illegally re-exporting? Or from imposing punitive measures in response to the British "transgressions" ("you insist that cars have to have the steering wheel on the right - that is illegal protectionism!").  Who will decide on disputes?

Every free trade agreement ever concluded is all about rules: hundreds and thousands of them. Without the rules of this sort you would have, literally, no commitment to anything. Remember, there is a huge asymmetry here. There exist national governments and legislatures that are free to write the rules. But, normally, there do not exist supernational governments to do the same. Without very detailed commitments on both sides, and without an agreed upon system of dispute resolution, countries could easily pass in internal rules and regulations that would suck out all the benefits the other side got in the negotiation. And, of course, with both countries able to do this, there will be no benefits left.

[ag]

It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

To begin with, US common market is not on offer. Has never been. The only proper common market that US is a part of is called the United States of America. Even NAFTA is much less integrated (even if you forget about labor mobility). Anything remotely resembling the EU has never been agreed to by the US, since it has been created.

The other problem, of course, is, that, even if UK could enter into a common area with the US,  it would mean a very serious restructuring of the economy: and that always means pain. US has no need for the British banks: NY is doing fine as the finance center. Losing access to the European banking market (which seems to be inevitable, at this point) will not be compensated by gaining it from the US: if anything, Brits would, probably, want to prevent liberalization there, to avoid losing even their own market to New York. And this is just one instance of what could go wrong.

Should I continue?

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

Taking your argument to its logical conclusion, the English will have no one to surrender to even if they wish to surrender.

Might, actually, happen

[ag]

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.

EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

And that is suppose to be a position of strength for the EU? Unable to make decisions, surrounded by hostile adversaries whose interests don't necessarily coincide with the EU continuing to exist, and numerous internal movements that could rise up and sever arms and limbs from the project.

when you bargain, not being able to agee is strength.