Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday (user search)
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  Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday  (Read 1551 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: January 22, 2017, 02:48:07 AM »
« edited: January 22, 2017, 02:49:40 AM by True Federalist »

Amazing. Hope they start the trade deal talks soon, showing other EU countries leaving it doesn't have to be economically disastrous. Also hoping for more foreign policy cooperation.

The UK cannot negotiate a trade deal with anyone while still being a member of the EU. So it won't happen until at least 2019.

And that will show to everyone that leaving the EU is economically disastrous.

What will the EU do if the UK starts negotiating now?  Throw the UK out of the EU?  While they can't go into effect before the UK leaves, there's no mechanism for penalizing the UK for negotiating ahead of time.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2017, 03:14:08 AM »

Amazing. Hope they start the trade deal talks soon, showing other EU countries leaving it doesn't have to be economically disastrous. Also hoping for more foreign policy cooperation.

The UK cannot negotiate a trade deal with anyone while still being a member of the EU. So it won't happen until at least 2019.

And that will show to everyone that leaving the EU is economically disastrous.

What will the EU do if the UK starts negotiating now?  Throw the UK out of the EU?  While they can't go into effect before the UK leaves, there's no mechanism for penalizing the UK for negotiating ahead of time.

They can stop all negotiations for as long as the negotiations with the US go, forcing the UK, eventually, to accept whatever ultimatum it is given at the very end of the two-year period, without any time for a counter-proposal.

BTW, herein is another problem: I doubt the UK has enough qualified negotiators for both processes.

That seems to be what the EU plans on doing anyway, punish the UK for daring to leave and thereby keep other countries from doing the same.  If countries can't leave the EU, then perhaps it's time for the US (and other countries) to revive the lesser diplomatic position of envoy and only send an ambassador to the EU and send lower-ranked envoys to the member states thereof.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2017, 03:44:48 AM »

You badly misread UK sentiment if you think that's the case.  There's no way the UK will agree to the common labor market.  It barely tolerated it once it's outside of the EU.  Similarly, the UK would be a fool to join in the common agricultural policy once it's exited the EU.  Economically, the UK might benefit it it did as you think it will, but history shows that all too often people, companies, and countries don't act in their own best economic interests because of a wide variety of reasons.  I don't think the UK (assuming it remains united) will do as you think it will and the resulting economic pain will be seen as a result of the EU punishing the UK for being uppity. That feeling will make UK acceding to EU rules even less likely, not more.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2017, 05:13:44 AM »

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2017, 01:56:51 AM »

ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The notion that the UK is without options at this juncture ignores the "new" reality. The UK has far more cards to play than the the EU and all of the EU's expose it to engaging in the very behavior that nationalists accuse them of.



EU will not do anything. It will just not be able to agree on anything. Remember: previously, the Brits were at the round table, and their agreement was needed to take any decision. Now they (or, rather, the English and the Welsh) sit on the other side: everybody needs to agree on any concession to them. Well, everybody will not agree. You have seen what the freaking Walloon parliament can do. Trust me, you have not, yet, heard from the Maltese.  It will consistently be easier for the English to surrender than to argue. And, of course, the default threat (no agreement) is much worse for the English than for the rest.

Taking your argument to its logical conclusion, the English will have no one to surrender to even if they wish to surrender.
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