Why did Washington state vote Republican in 1960, 1976, and 1980?
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  Why did Washington state vote Republican in 1960, 1976, and 1980?
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Author Topic: Why did Washington state vote Republican in 1960, 1976, and 1980?  (Read 3562 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: January 22, 2017, 12:15:15 PM »

Was Washington state a swing state during those decades?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2017, 12:39:12 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2017, 12:42:02 PM by Crumpets »

Washington has been a very white state for a long time, and has generally been among the more affluent states. Although there's always been a contingent of hippie white liberals, they used to be mostly confined to a few neighborhoods in Seattle and some artist colonies like Port Townsend, Bellingham and Vashon Island. It wasn't really until the rise of the tech industry and the resulting influx of Yuppies that the rest of King County started to liberalize, and once that happened, it just became mathematically very difficult for Republicans to do well statewide. However, it wasn't that long ago that the state was still quite competitive on the state level, especially for governor.

I also think that Nixon and Reagan being Westerners helped them in 1960 and 1980. If you look at the 1980 county map in Washington, the two counties that voted for Carter (Pacific and Grays Harbor) were the two that flipped to Trump in 2016 that surprised a lot of people. The same two counties were the only ones to vote for McGovern over Nixon in 1972.
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Eharding
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2017, 12:54:08 PM »

Washington State is King County; King County is Washington State. John Anderson (1980's version of a modern liberal Illinois Democrat) got over 10% of the vote there. Nixon and Ford appealed to the college-educated somewhat more than Kennedy and Carter due to being so-called "sensible moderates" (i.e., RINOs).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2017, 01:12:35 PM »

The whole Left Coast save for good 'ol NorCal [which sadly kept being shut out of the process by SoCal] was Lean-Republican turf until Reaganomics murdered the Rocky GOP wing that did so well to keep things just out of Democratic hands.

As for 1980, besides Carter being in bad shape...he was a really bad fit for The West and the scope of Reaganomics wasn't entirely known yet.

Whoever defeats Trump is likewise probably going to do the best in The West.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2017, 01:19:37 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2017, 01:21:11 PM by Oldiesfreak1854 »

In short, it was Rockefeller Republicans and suburbanites voting for Nixon and Ford by wide margins, and 1980 was obviously the Reagan landslide.
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2017, 02:41:52 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2017, 02:48:04 PM by blacknwhiterose »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?
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Eharding
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2017, 04:10:54 PM »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?

-Washington State was within three points in 1968 (and 1960 as well) and Wallace got over 6%. So yeah, I think he had an effect, since Wallace generally took more votes from Nixon than Humphrey. And Humphrey's Minnesotan appeal probably extended to other northern WASPy states better than JFK's.

The more curious question is why Washington went for Wilson in 1916.
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Eharding
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« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2017, 04:15:40 PM »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?

-As for Reagan, his under-46% performance in King, WA was nearly turned into a majority by places like Spokane.
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2017, 06:30:53 PM »

Interesting little did-you-know: before going off on his twisted serial killing spree, Ted Bundy was an aspiring Republican Party volunteer and University of Puget Sound law school student, even attending the 1968 Republican convention as a Rockefeller delegate.  I wonder if the ensuing gruesome Bundy killings was what spurred Washington state's eventual trend towards the Democratic Party, hahahahaha.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2017, 08:27:10 PM »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?

-Washington State was within three points in 1968 (and 1960 as well) and Wallace got over 6%. So yeah, I think he had an effect, since Wallace generally took more votes from Nixon than Humphrey.
Actually, there's plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise.  First, most of Wallace's southern supporters were segregationist Democrats, not Republicans.  Now, some of you may point out that Humphrey was pro-civil rights.  That's true, except segregationists were Democrats above all else, a fact that is easily demonstrated by their support of other pro-civil rights Democrats, such as JFK.  Outside the south, most of Wallace's support came from blue-collar union voters who were solidly Democrat and far more likely to vote for Humphrey than for Nixon.  I suspect the shift in Washington state had more to do with the strength of the anti-war movement, especially after Humphrey began distancing himself from Johnson and the Vietnam War.
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Eharding
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2017, 10:57:30 PM »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?

-Washington State was within three points in 1968 (and 1960 as well) and Wallace got over 6%. So yeah, I think he had an effect, since Wallace generally took more votes from Nixon than Humphrey.
Actually, there's plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise.  First, most of Wallace's southern supporters were segregationist Democrats, not Republicans.  Now, some of you may point out that Humphrey was pro-civil rights.  That's true, except segregationists were Democrats above all else, a fact that is easily demonstrated by their support of other pro-civil rights Democrats, such as JFK.  Outside the south, most of Wallace's support came from blue-collar union voters who were solidly Democrat and far more likely to vote for Humphrey than for Nixon.  I suspect the shift in Washington state had more to do with the strength of the anti-war movement, especially after Humphrey began distancing himself from Johnson and the Vietnam War.

-Wrong. Compare the 1960 to 1968 vote in Livingston, Oakland, Montmorency counties, Michigan. Overall, a solid majority of Wallace votes came from Nixon or would go to Nixon in 1972 (~70%). Yes, there were some New Deal Democrat places (especially very Catholic ones like Macomb County) where the Wallace vote came predominantly from Dems. But in most places, it came from natural Nixonians, as Kevin Phillips amply documented in The Emerging Republican Majority.

JFK became wildly unpopular in the South during the course of 1963, when southerners realized he was serious about civil rights. Thus, the Goldwater win in the Deep South (nobody was a more committed conservative Republican at the time than Goldwater).

Remember, 1968 came after 1964.
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2017, 11:12:50 PM »

Washington was quite close in 1968 and 1976, so we're not talking about a huge difference. Washington was a swing state through the 80s, partly because the Western half of the state wasn't quite as populous, but also because it wasn't much of a tech hub before then.
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Eharding
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« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2017, 11:21:24 PM »

Washington was quite close in 1968 and 1976, so we're not talking about a huge difference. Washington was a swing state through the 80s, partly because the Western half of the state wasn't quite as populous, but also because it wasn't much of a tech hub before then.

-No; Washington State was urbanized from a surprisingly early point and King County always voted with the state during the 20th century. Kennedy and Carter did not have that much techie appeal -Richard Nixon got exactly the same percentage of the vote in San Francisco in 1960 and 1972 and Carter won a solid 52% of the vote there.
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« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2017, 11:53:11 PM »

Kennedy underperformed due to anti-Catholicism.

Carter probably could have carried Washington in 1976 if he had the strong support of Scoop Jackson, who was bitter at losing the nomination again and spent the general election campaign for Dixy Lee Ray instead.
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2017, 12:03:28 AM »

Washington was quite close in 1968 and 1976, so we're not talking about a huge difference. Washington was a swing state through the 80s, partly because the Western half of the state wasn't quite as populous, but also because it wasn't much of a tech hub before then.

-No; Washington State was urbanized from a surprisingly early point and King County always voted with the state during the 20th century. Kennedy and Carter did not have that much techie appeal -Richard Nixon got exactly the same percentage of the vote in San Francisco in 1960 and 1972 and Carter won a solid 52% of the vote there.

You do know that Western Washington (and King county as it so happens) is more than just Seattle? A lot of suburbs, such as Bellevue, have grown quite a bit since the 1960s/70s. Also, as I mentioned, it wasn't a tech hub before the 80s, so its residents weren't as liberal on average as they are now.
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Eharding
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2017, 12:35:26 AM »

Washington was quite close in 1968 and 1976, so we're not talking about a huge difference. Washington was a swing state through the 80s, partly because the Western half of the state wasn't quite as populous, but also because it wasn't much of a tech hub before then.

-No; Washington State was urbanized from a surprisingly early point and King County always voted with the state during the 20th century. Kennedy and Carter did not have that much techie appeal -Richard Nixon got exactly the same percentage of the vote in San Francisco in 1960 and 1972 and Carter won a solid 52% of the vote there.

You do know that Western Washington (and King county as it so happens) is more than just Seattle? A lot of suburbs, such as Bellevue, have grown quite a bit since the 1960s/70s. Also, as I mentioned, it wasn't a tech hub before the 80s, so its residents weren't as liberal on average as they are now.

-King County's population in 1960 was just under half of its population in 2010, but the city of Seattle grew far less during that time, so you are correct as to the matter of suburban expansion. It's certainly true King County is far more liberal today than in the 1960s-1970s (judging by the Goldwater v. McGovern vote). However, partisan affiliation was still very much in flux over the 1960s and 1970s, and the GOP still had an advantage among the college-educated except in GOP landslides. So if Seattle was a tech hub before the 1980s, I doubt that would have affected its voting patterns much.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2017, 01:32:46 AM »

I'm honestly surprised that Boeing hasn't even been mentioned once in this thread....

Anyone that doesn't understand the impact that Boeing played in Washington State back in those decades apparently doesn't have a clue...

Although Portland, Oregon expanded dramatically as a direct consequence of both WWI and WWII related stimulation of the industrial sector, it was much less dependent on defense related spending and activities than Metro Seattle....

In many ways Seattle historically resembled more of a San Diego or West LA scene, where there used to be a large number of jobs tied directly to military defense contracts...

My uncle used to work as a defense contractor in San Diego, my wife's Father and Uncle in West LA for the Aerospace Industry, at a time where Socially Moderate, Fiscally Conservative, and Middle-of-the-Road on Foreign Policy (Vietnam) used to be the norm on the West Coast.

The 1960 election in Washington State is likely explained as the result of a New England Liberal Democrat running against a Moderate West Coast Republican. The Democrat used the "Nuke Gap" to try to outplay Nixon on Anti-Communist street-Cred.

In '76 we see a Moderate Midwestern Republican running against a Southern Democrat in the post 'Nam era.... Foreign Policy was not the defining narrative of the Election, and Ford was seen a moderate Republican on fiscal issues, and I suspect that Ford ran stronger in the Northern states because of those issues, and potentially issues that voters in certain parts of the country had with a "former peanut farmer from Georgia running for President.

In '80, I suspect it was a mixture---- defection of the Moderate voters towards Anderson... (I remember as a young child seeing Anderson yard signs all across my small city in Oregon) combined with a surge of evangelical voters that saw Reagan as one of their own....

Maybe I am totally wrong. but Metro Seattle & Vancouver definitely played a big role in Reagan's '80 victory in Washington....
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2017, 02:50:32 AM »

Like NOVA said, people forget the heavy influence the military and defense industry was in Washington up until fairly recently. It's still there somewhat (Naval base in Bremerton, Joint Base Lewis-McCord, the Yakima training center, Boeing of course) but has shrunk in influence as Microsoft and Amazon have come to define Washington's economy.

Scoop Jackson is probably the gold standard for neocon Democrats, and was massively popular in his time, and I'd have a hard time seeing a politician in his mold having success in modern Washington.
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2017, 03:10:49 AM »

The west coast used to be more conservative. Losing Republican candidate Ford, not of California, actually managed to win the bay area.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2017, 10:57:51 PM »

Like NOVA said, people forget the heavy influence the military and defense industry was in Washington up until fairly recently. It's still there somewhat (Naval base in Bremerton, Joint Base Lewis-McCord, the Yakima training center, Boeing of course) but has shrunk in influence as Microsoft and Amazon have come to define Washington's economy.

Scoop Jackson is probably the gold standard for neocon Democrats, and was massively popular in his time, and I'd have a hard time seeing a politician in his mold having success in modern Washington.

It's funny that you mentioned the naval base in Bremerton because I was stationed on the USS John C. Stennis which is homeported in Bremerton. The area has a Republican feel to it and yet the congressional district votes Democratic and kept reelecting Norm Dicks.

I don't know if anyone can answer this question, but is Mayor Patty Lent supposed to be an Independent? She does attend a lot of Republican events.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2017, 12:07:51 AM »

This was when rich Republican.  Now rich Democrat.  Everyone in Washington is rich Starbucks.
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2017, 12:10:57 AM »

Actually, why did it vote Dem in 1968? The only time a West Coast State went Democratic between '52 and '84 excluding from the count Johnson '64 landslide...
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Eharding
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« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2017, 09:38:17 PM »

Can someone more familiar than I am with Pac NW politics demonstrate why Washington voted Humphrey in 1968 then Ford/Reagan in 1976/1980?  Even if '80 had been a cliff hanger, Reagan still would have carried the state: he won by 12%, 2% more than his national average plus had 49.66% despite John Edwards muddying the waters.  Based on earlier replies, it seems we can conclude that Washington was more or less a moderate/'rockefeller' republican state in the 1960-1980 era, but what happened in '68?  Did George Wallace's 7% of the state vote muddy the waters?  Did the anti-war hippies around Seattle skew to Humphrey?

-Washington State was within three points in 1968 (and 1960 as well) and Wallace got over 6%. So yeah, I think he had an effect, since Wallace generally took more votes from Nixon than Humphrey. And Humphrey's Minnesotan appeal probably extended to other northern WASPy states better than JFK's.

The more curious question is why Washington went for Wilson in 1916.
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2017, 04:59:16 PM »

Actually, why did it vote Dem in 1968? The only time a West Coast State went Democratic between '52 and '84 excluding from the count Johnson '64 landslide...

1. Sounds like Wallace may have hurt Nixon more than Humphrey.

2. Galvanized anti-war hippie vote skewing to Humphrey.

and with 1 and 2 in mind:

3. The state was already fairly close in other close elections (1960 and 1976).  The Vietnam War climate and the Wallace factor may have been enough to tip the state to the Democrat challenger.
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