Hypothetical Iowa primaries/caucuses

[justfollowingtheelections]

The candidates are:

For the the Republicans:

Donald Trump, President of the United States

Dwayne Johnson, Actor

For the Democrats (in alphabetical order):

Steve Bullock, Montana Governor

Tammy Duckworth, Illinois Senator

Kamala Harris, California Senator

Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Senator

John Hickenlooper, Former Governor of Colorado

Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator

Bernie Sanders, Vermont Senator

Tom Steyer, hedge fund Manager

Predict the percentages of each candidate in both races.

[Del Tachi]

GOP:  Trump (83%), Johnson (14%)

DEM:  Sanders (31%), Klobuchar (26%), Hickenlooper (14%), Duckworth (9%), Harris (6%), Hassan (3%), Bullock (2%), Steyer (1%)

[justfollowingtheelections]

GOP:  Trump (83%), Johnson (14%)

DEM:  Sanders (31%), Klobuchar (26%), Hickenlooper (14%), Duckworth (9%), Harris (6%), Hassan (3%), Bullock (2%), Steyer (1%)

Thanks for the participating.  I noticed that in neither of the two races do the percentages add up to 100%.  I was just wondering what you think happens to the remaining votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders, Duckworth and Bullock won't be running

More like Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin Heinrich race v President Tump

[Dr. Arch]

Well, we all know who TN Vol will be supporting

[justfollowingtheelections]

Sanders, Duckworth and Bullock won't be running

More like Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin Heinrich race v President Tump

You don't know that and neither do I of course.  I made a list of candidates taking into consideration who wikipedia lists as potential candidates, and what they themselves have said regarding the possibility of running in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders, Duckworth and Bullock won't be running

More like Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin Heinrich race v President Tump

You don't know that and neither do I of course.  I made a list of candidates taking into consideration who wikipedia lists as potential candidates, and what they themselves have said regarding the possibility of running in 2020.

Wikipedia's list is very dumb.  They interpret completely innocuous non-denial statements from folks like Cuomo and Gillibrand as if they are real denials.

I would rely more on what the candidates are both saying and doing.  E.g., the fact that Martin O'Malley visited Iowa last month, and that he actually says "maybe" when asked about running in 2020 as opposed to dodging the question, indicates that he's leaning towards running.  The fact that, say, Klobuchar met with early primary state delegations at the DNC last year indicates she's also interested, etc.

[Del Tachi]

GOP:  Trump (83%), Johnson (14%)

DEM:  Sanders (31%), Klobuchar (26%), Hickenlooper (14%), Duckworth (9%), Harris (6%), Hassan (3%), Bullock (2%), Steyer (1%)

Thanks for the participating.  I noticed that in neither of the two races do the percentages add up to 100%.  I was just wondering what you think happens to the remaining votes.

There's always some non-major candidates who take up some primary votes.  8% is probably too high for the Democratic Party in an open election, but it is an unusually small field for Iowa with some major parts of the Party not represented.

[Mr. Morden]

Keep in mind that the Iowa caucus procedure on the Dem. side is brutal for any candidates whose statewide support is ~10% or less.  If you don’t get 15% or more in your precinct, then your support in that precinct is reallocated to other candidates.  So candidates whose “real” support is in the high single digits are likely to only get ~1 or 2% in the official results, because they fail to reach the viability threshold all over the place.  So, in 2008, Richardson is polling at something like 6 or 7%, and gets 2% on election day.  In 2016, O’Malley is polling at ~3-6%, and gets 0.5% on election day, etc.