AZ-Global Strategy Group (D): Flake +3 over Generic Democrat

[heatcharger]

Link.

Didn't see this posted yet. This poll appears to be conducted on behalf of Planned Parenthood, so yeah. Also it was conducted back in December, so take it with an even finer grain of salt.

Flake - 36%
Generic D - 33%

Personally I think it's highly unlikely that Flake loses if he gets to the general, but that last part is a big question mark for now.

[jamestroll]

Honestly, I think Flake is a terrible Senator and I hope he loses the primary, but I think the GOP will hold the seat in the end (probably not by much, though).

We need as many Mormons in government as possible. And I see nothing wrong with being slightly moderate. It is just an atlas fantasy that all senators of the same party will agree on every single issue.

What makes Flake so terrible?

[ag]

What makes Flake so terrible?

From the standpoint of the other poster here? That he has morals, of course.

[ag]

What makes Flake so terrible?

From the standpoint of the other poster here? That he has morals, of course.

Flake is a terrible fit for his state and way too liberal for my taste. But whatever.

Yep, he is liberal, though not in the usual US sense of the word. And you are illiberal. That is, exactly, what I said before.

[jamestroll]

Yep, he is liberal, though not in the usual US sense of the word. And you are illiberal. That is, exactly, what I said before.

I don't care that he refused to support Trump, he's just terrible in general.

Lmao

Flake is a member of the LDS Church. He is an excellent public servant and has good moral values.

[Xing]

I don't think Flake is that vulnerable unless Trump is historically unpopular.

[ag]

Yep, he is liberal, though not in the usual US sense of the word. And you are illiberal. That is, exactly, what I said before.

I don't care that he refused to support Trump, he's just terrible in general.

Where did I use the word "Trump"?

[KingSweden]

Jeff Flake is one of the Senate's staunchest fiscal conservatives. He's not a moderate

[R/H]

If Republicans are narrowly leading in the 2018 Arizona Senate race, then I think Democrats should target Arizona in 2018 in addition of at least Nevada.

If Democrats are able to keep all their battleground seats (MT, ND, WI, MO, OH, etc.) and to get AZ and NV, then they would get at least 50 seats, which would be a blow for Donald Trump.

[Xing]

I don't think Flake is that vulnerable unless Trump is historically unpopular.

He's had terrible approval ratings for his entire term, and they only got worse last year, so... I'd even say he's more vulnerable at the moment than Heller.

On the other hand, plenty of unpopular incumbents have won re-election. Arizona remains a tough state for Democrats, much more so than Nevada.

[Young Conservative]

Jeff Flake is one of the Senate's staunchest fiscal conservatives. He's not a moderate

He IS a moderate on a lot of things, but he is a very fiscally responsible character. He is actually a very good fit for Arizona and I think he is one of the most electable Republicans in office.

[Pericles]

The 2018 midterms will likely be bad for the GOP despite the good map as Trump's unpopularity will cancel it out. He is already at 40% approval and this is his honeymoon, after two years of his disastrous 'leadership' it will probably be lower and the Democrats will do well(not sure if they can gain either house though). Could go differently but this us the most likely scenario.

[Klartext89]

What makes Flake so terrible?

From the standpoint of the other poster here? That he has morals, of course.

What is "moral" for the one, is immoral for the other one.

I also hope that Flake goes down in a Primary cause he would have prefered the destruction of the US by Hillary Clinton instead of making America great again.

[Klartext89]

Yep, he is liberal, though not in the usual US sense of the word. And you are illiberal. That is, exactly, what I said before.

I don't care that he refused to support Trump, he's just terrible in general.

Lmao

Flake is a member of the LDS Church. He is an excellent public servant and has good moral values.

Well, doesn't it tell the whole story that he is praised by Democrats here? ;-)

[Klartext89]

The 2018 midterms will likely be bad for the GOP despite the good map as Trump's unpopularity will cancel it out. He is already at 40% approval and this is his honeymoon, after two years of his disastrous 'leadership' it will probably be lower and the Democrats will do well(not sure if they can gain either house though). Could go differently but this us the most likely scenario.

I doubt he has a 40% approval rating among the midterm electorate in states like Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Ohio. Maybe he has a 40% approval rating with the whole size of the American people, but only a third will go to the polls in a midterm and having an approval rating of 10% in California, Massachusetts or Illinois won't be a problem in terms of Senate control.

[windjammer]

I mean, Trump carried this state by 4 points.

Lean republican

[Hindsight was 2020]

The 2018 midterms will likely be bad for the GOP despite the good map as Trump's unpopularity will cancel it out. He is already at 40% approval and this is his honeymoon, after two years of his disastrous 'leadership' it will probably be lower and the Democrats will do well(not sure if they can gain either house though). Could go differently but this us the most likely scenario.

I doubt he has a 40% approval rating among the midterm electorate in states like Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Ohio. Maybe he has a 40% approval rating with the whole size of the American people, but only a third will go to the polls in a midterm and having an approval rating of 10% in California, Massachusetts or Illinois won't be a problem in terms of Senate control.

In 2010 the tea party wave won a senate seat in Massachusetts where Obama was popular in 2006 the dems won house seats in deep red areas were Bush was still popular when there is a mood in the country that always causes a swing

[Blackacre]

How elastic is Arizona? That might be a better indicator of how strong a prospect it'll be for Dems in 2018, rather than who won it last year

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

How elastic is Arizona? That might be a better indicator of how strong a prospect it'll be for Dems in 2018, rather than who won it last year

I think its decently elastic.


The important thing about this poll is the 31% undecided margin.

[publicunofficial]

This. Remember all those states that Bush and Obama won in 2004 and 2008 by double digits that ended up electing opposite party senators? Lol

And remember that every state last year voted for the same party in both the presidential and the Senate race? Assuming people like Heitkamp and Donnelly will easily cruise to reelection just because TRUMP!!!1! is a dangerous assumption and shows how overconfident Democrats are again.

Democrats can be overconfident but it feels like whenever a Red Avatar expresses anything but abject despair, you're there to jump down their throats about it.