ND 2018: If Cramer doesn't run against Heitkamp, is Heitkamp still vulnerable?

[I’m not Stu]

Is Heitkamp vulnerable even if Cramer doesn't run?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yes, she'll always be vulnerable in a state that red.

[publicunofficial]

The GOP could fail to recruit anybody and run a random state legislator, and the race would still be no better than Lean D.

[Heisenberg]

The only candidates she would beat handily are Rick Berg and Rick Becker, but I could live with that since I really don't really like either. Someone like Jack Dalrymple, Thomas Campbell, Brian Kalk, or Kelly Schmidt would be also favored, but a generic Republican would still make it a race.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Of course she is vulnerable.  Dalrymple or Stenehjem could easily beat her.  That's not to say they necessarily WOULD, however.

[R/H]

I think Hitkamp will win re-eletion next year since she supports the Keystone XL pipeline, a project strongly supported in North Dakota, a Republican stronghold, which would help her to get some Trump voters.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/27/north-dakota-senator-heidi-heitkamp-on-keystone-pipeline-vows-obama-veto-override/2878573/

[I’m not Stu]

Would it be competitive if the Republican is Nicole Poolman or Drew Wrigley?

[Heisenberg]

I think Hitkamp will win re-eletion next year since she supports the Keystone XL pipeline, a project strongly supported in North Dakota, a Republican stronghold, which would help her to get some Trump voters.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/27/north-dakota-senator-heidi-heitkamp-on-keystone-pipeline-vows-obama-veto-override/2878573/

True, she's also pro-gun, but I can also see the Republican say (if the pipeline doesn't pass this Congress): Heitkamp supports the Keystone but she'll vote for Schumer for majority leader who will (probably) not put it up for a vote in the Senate.

Also, I forgot to add Wayne Stenehjem to my list of strong candidates.

Would it be competitive if the Republican is Nicole Poolman or Drew Wrigley?

Poolman (and her husband, a former Insurance Commissioner) would both be B-listers, as well as Wrigley (I think he had some ethical issue IIRC), but would still be decent, I guess.

[Maxwell]

Yes, she might even be more vulnerable considering Cramer ain't that great of a candidate in the first place.

[Maxwell]

I was about to write a post saying 20 points would be a stretch, but I actually agree considering she's been playing footsie with big oil in way that is deeply unsatisfactory to the significant native american population in North Dakota. She could lose a substantial amount of the Democratic base to a third party or even to them not turning out.

[Mr. Smith]

Yup.

[Figueira]

Yes, the race is very winnable for either party regardless of who the Republicans nominate.

[houseonaboat]

I was about to write a post saying 20 points would be a stretch, but I actually agree considering she's been playing footsie with big oil in way that is deeply unsatisfactory to the significant native american population in North Dakota. She could lose a substantial amount of the Democratic base to a third party or even to them not turning out.

Have similar concerns about Manchin. For both candidates a quarter to half their voters are solid Democrats -- risk losing turnout among your base and you risk tipping a tight election. Part of why I think that among those two, Donnelly, Tester and McCaskill I would say Tester has by far the easiest path to reelection.

[freepcrusher]

what about the possibility that republicans punt on it like Nebraska in 2006 and Heitkamp wins easily?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think Hitkamp will win re-eletion next year since she supports the Keystone XL pipeline, a project strongly supported in North Dakota, a Republican stronghold, which would help her to get some Trump voters.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/27/north-dakota-senator-heidi-heitkamp-on-keystone-pipeline-vows-obama-veto-override/2878573/

Given the fact that she's only in her first, term and is in a state that leans R across the board, she's by no means a shoo-in for reelection.

[windjammer]

what about the possibility that republicans punt on it like Nebraska in 2006 and Heitkamp wins easily?

Not happening. Heitkamp is popular but not heavily popular like Ben Nelson was

[Heisenberg]

what about the possibility that republicans punt on it like Nebraska in 2006 and Heitkamp wins easily?

Not happening. Heitkamp is popular but not heavily popular like Ben Nelson was

LOL at how Nelson's popularity plummeted after supporting the ACA.

[KingSweden]

Yes, she might even be more vulnerable considering Cramer ain't that great of a candidate in the first place.

This. I'm not convinced that Stenejem or Schmidt aren't stronger candidates anyhow