Any chance Dems could pull a Senate upset in Nebr or Mississippi in 2018?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Defeat Flake and Heller, while keeping all the other Senate seats. But unless it's in a recession, no reason for it to happen.

I actually think Ds winning a deep red state like UT in an upset is more likely to happen than them holding all their other seats. Both are very, very unlikely, though.

-Incumbency has stopped being an advantage to Senate candidates? Or is it just not as big as it used to be?

Incumbency doesn't matter if your state has decided that it just can't vote for your party anymore. MO will almost certainly never vote for a statewide democrat again, and its likelier than not that the same is true of Indiana.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)

I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.

In order to win Nebraska, Democrats would have to win some rural counties. Not enough urban vote in the state to do it on urban areas alone.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)

I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.

In order to win Nebraska, Democrats would have to win some rural counties. Not enough urban vote in the state to do it on urban areas alone.

Actually Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties together make up ~53% of the state's population.

It's that the western part of the state votes SOOO Republican and the eastern urban areas just have small Dem leans that makes Nebraska so hard for Democrats to win statewide.

I imagine that number is total population, not VEP. And even if it's the latter, it would only work if it voted >80% dem with sky high turnout, unless the rural margins were much smaller than usual, but in that case you would expect a few rural counties to vote dem, so it's not as if the map would be just those three counties in all likelihood.