Any chance Dems could pull a Senate upset in Nebr or Mississippi in 2018?

[jamestroll]

Nope. God has told me that Democrats will not retake the US Senate in 2018.

However, Democrats could have a plausible chance to take the Utah Senate Seat in 2018. Ben McAdams would be a strong candidate for that seat. However a few things must happen.

1) Trump must remain unpopular with Mormons.
2) Ben McAdams or even Jim Matheson would have to run
3) Probably there will have to be some sort of conservative split vote.

Matheson has shown little interest in pursuing statewide office with his career moves. From what I understand he does have a large campaign chest. If Matheson or McAdams could win a Senate Seat in 2018 in Utah they would likely be Mark Begich 2.0. One term Senator and could well come close to retaining in 2014 but falling barely short.

If McAdams [or perhaps Matheson] is smart they would wait for the open 2020 Gubernatorial Contest. It is way to early to tell but either one would have an good shot to win the open seat.

Incumbency doesn't matter if your state has decided that it just can't vote for your party anymore. MO will almost certainly never vote for a statewide democrat again, and its likelier than not that the same is true of Indiana.

lmao. Who knows. At least MO Democrats lost power with an a Republican administration coming in. I do not think Kander's campaign was great. Yes extremely controversial position I know but I think it did show there is a pathway for a Democrat to win statewide in the state. It could well happen in 2018. Though it may take into the 2020s to recover.

The dynamics are interesting. Midwestern states have often insane swings up and down the ballot and Southern States with stagnant demographics have going hard Republican. MO is a bit of both.

[jamestroll]

Wulfric is one of those 2016 forever people. There has always been a cult on Atlas that bases EVERY future election result from Presidential vote to City Council district solely on the last general result until the end of time.

[jamestroll]

Wulfric is one of those 2016 forever people. There has always been a cult on Atlas that bases EVERY future election result from Presidential vote to City Council district solely on the last general result until the end of time.

I HATE those people, LOL.  They're such political nerds - and annoyingly young - that they want to talk, talk and talk some more about the *current coalitions* and *PVI* and other things that demand a lot more nuance than they ever give them.

Yea. I mean trends, pvi, demographics DO make a difference but not as much as you would think. And I think that matters the most on the presidential level. A little less on the Senate level and a lot less on the Gubernatorial level and below.

Like I think we could see for some time that Ohio and Iowa could well vote Republican for President but I would think either of those states could elect or re-elect a Democratic Senator or Governor. Georgia will likely go Democratic in the next Democratic electoral college victory but Republicans will likely hold the state legislature for a while. If you believe exit polls, the incumbent Republican Senator got a respectable amount of the black vote in Georgia. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not part of a so-called blue wall but they may lean a bit Democratic in the future. Still very contestable states though.

Also since I have been political aware I have seen a lot of changes. From the 2004 election of Bush which people assumed we could only win with a Warner-Bayh ticket in 2008. Democrats won with Obama in 2008 and probably would have won with Sanders in 2016. That does not mean we should have a Sanders type candidate in 2020. That would be especially true if Trump's anti free trade stance throws us into a recession.