KS-4 Special Election called for April 11th-Ron Estes GOP Nominee

[Pragmatic Conservative]

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Link http://kmuw.org/post/governor-brownback-sets-date-kansas-4th-district-special-election

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe R

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I imagine Tiahrt starts out as the frontrunner, but yeah Safe R.

[tmthforu94]

I believe the district committee will select the nominee, there isn't a primary. Tiahrt didn't make friends when he tried to challenge Pompeo in 2014. While he would have a good shot in a primary, I think Estes is the definite favorite and should win the nomination and the election with relative ease. Estes has a lot of roots in Wichita - he used to be treasurer for Sedgwick County.

[Maxwell]

unless there are a whole bunch of candidates, I really don't think Tiahrt is going to win.

[PAK Man]

I hope Democrats field at least a somewhat-serious challenger. Yeah, the district is Safe R, but what do they have to lose? They might as well go for it.

[Mr.Phips]

Unless Dems can find someone who can carry Sedgwick county, Safe R.

[KingSweden]

Agree Estes probably has this locked up

[Maxwell]

I hope Democrats field at least a somewhat-serious challenger. Yeah, the district is Safe R, but what do they have to lose? They might as well go for it.

Dennis McKinney is... not the worst candidate they could've possibly recruited? Over-performed the top of the ticket in 2010 running for a full term as treasurer (2nd best performer on the Kansas Dem line-up behind Ex Attorney General Stephen Six)- which ain't saying much but it is saying something. Lots of experience.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Democrats will choose their nominee tomorrow.

Yesterday State Treasure Ron Estes was Selected as the GOP nominee for the seat over former Trump staffer Alan Cobb and former Rep. Todd Tiahrt on the second ballot 52-34-14.


http://ksn.com/2017/02/09/kansas-gop-chooses-estes-as-fourth-district-congressional-candidate/

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I imagine Tiahrt starts out as the frontrunner, but yeah Safe R.

oops


Congrats Representative Estes!

[Figueira]

Safe R is probably the best designation for this. Kansas's D trend was entirely concentrated in KS-03, as far as districts are concerned. Democrats should run a respectable candidate, but let's not expect them to win.

Anyway, what is Estes like? Is he anything other than a generic Republican?

[Heisenberg]

Safe R is probably the best designation for this. Kansas's D trend was entirely concentrated in KS-03, as far as districts are concerned. Democrats should run a respectable candidate, but let's not expect them to win.

Anyway, what is Estes like? Is he anything other than a generic Republican?

The Democratic candidate is (expected to be) former Treasurer Dennis McKinney. If so, it sets up a rematch of the 2010 Treasurer election. Brownback would appoint the successor assuming Estes wins. Estes, I think is from the more moderate, anti-Brownback wing of the Kansas Republican Party but I'm not sure.

[Maxwell]

Civil Rights Attorney Jim Thompson scores something of an upset over Ex Treasurer Dennis McKinney to become the Dem nominee

[smoltchanov]

Even more Safe R then earlier. Though, in fact, it was so if not from the beginning, then, at least, since Estes (conservative, but sane, unlike Brownback or Kobach) was nominated.

[VPH]

Civil Rights Attorney Jim Thompson scores something of an upset over Ex Treasurer Dennis McKinney to become the Dem nominee

It was definitely an upset but McKinney's camp had burnt lots of bridges. He hired his staff straight from the independent campaign that tried to undermine the Democratic candidate in 2016 and took about 5% of the Democratic vote away. That was a bad move, especially considering that those who picked the nominee were committed activists who knew about this. Also, Miranda Allen, the treasurer, is a longtime GOPer who presents herself as a political chameleon. When folks already went after McKinney for being too moderate that sure didn't help.