this ONE statistic reveals 2018 won't be as rosy as you want it to be

[Bacon King]

Republican Senators in Hillary States: 1
Democratic Senators in Trump States: 10



discuss with maps

[Crumpets]

Does anybody have the same numbers for the House? I imagine there are more Hillary-district Republicans than Trump-district Democrats, but that might just be projecting.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think based off of a likely bad Trump approval the reps pick up 2 seats in MO and IN while losing NV/AZ an maybe either TX due to Ted being Ted or UT due to thrid party so a range of +1 R to +1 D seems reasonable. While in the house pants a much easier path for dems which I why I'm very confident in a D flip in 2018

[Bacon King]

Does anybody have the same numbers for the House? I imagine there are more Hillary-district Republicans than Trump-district Democrats, but that might just be projecting.

GOP Congressmen in Hillary Districts: 22
Dem Congressmen in Trump Districts: 10

difference: 12



2016 GOP House seats won: 241
2016 Dem House seats won: 194

difference: 47

[peterthlee]

I think based off of a likely bad Trump approval the reps pick up 2 seats in MO and IN while losing NV/AZ an maybe either TX due to Ted being Ted or UT due to thrid party so a range of +1 R to +1 D seems reasonable. While in the house pants a much easier path for dems which I why I'm very confident in a D flip in 2018

Seems like this. But my projections are more D-friendly that I'm going to say the democrats will hold all seats they currently have (including the top 2 toss-up GOP targets of MO and IN; I'm not ruling out a GOP margin of 5-10 points, despite the odds) while picking up NV; secure a net 10 governorships' increment; and finally, narrowly filp the house. 
Folks might laugh at this post though, by December 2018.

[jamestroll]

I really do not think it is in any Democrats best interest to automatically concede every single state Trump won next year. Unless they wont to go below 40 seats.

[Blackacre]

In 2010 the GOP won the senate race in 9 states that Obama won in 2008, as well as the Senate race in Missouri, which in 2008 went for McCain by less than one fifth of one percentage point.

In 2014, the GOP won the senate race in 3 states that Obama won in 2012, and a fourth in a state that Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012.

In 2006, the Democratic Party won the senate race in 9 states that Bush won in 2004, while the GOP won a single Senate race in a Kerry state.

the 2018 statistic you mentioned is daunting for dems but not a surefire guarantee that those states will oust their Democratic Senators so quickly just because they went Trump.

[publicunofficial]

This is nothing new that you just uncovered. It's literally been talked about since Nov. 9th.

[jamestroll]

I agree with Zombie Spenstar's post above. You can also said that in 2016 every Presidential and Senate race went the same way. But that does not mean that will happen every single year. In 2012 five Democrats won strong Romney states despite control of Senate being up for grabs.

But of course people on this site will have McCaskill, Donnelly, Stabenow, Baldwin, Brown, Heitkamp and even Heller as dead on arrival until proven otherwise. Some of them rightfully so.

[jamestroll]

Oh I would like to mention a few other things.

I may have mentioned this once or twice before but not everything will be like 2016 forever.

It is highly doubtful that every single midterm will go heavily against the party in the White House like 2006 and 2010. Am I the only one who worries about political stability with those wild swings? Especially in the Midwest. Yes it is fun that the Midwest is elastic but it does show that their economy has fundamental flaws that no party will really solve. I know its controversial but I think its best when a state leans fundamentally to a specific party but also is willing to elect candidates of the opposite to certain officers consistently.

Also I do not see 2014 as a particularly impressive Republican midterm. The house gain of 14 (iirc) seats was not that impressive. The Senate gains were quite impressive I admit. But it just seemed to be a typical second midterm for an incumbent president.

Most of all Democrats need a message other than "trump sux". The message was "bush sux" in the 2006 midterm elections. It seemed great because of narrow margins in Missouri, Montana and Virginia that gave the Democrats the Senate Majority and the 31 seat pick up seemed impressive at the time but it was not exactly a record. All things considered, Democrats should have picked up 40+ seats in the House and won the Senate races in Virginia and Missouri by larger margins than they did.

Democrats need a unified vision to win and have a leader that can connect to large demographics of the American population. If we don't we may win 2020 Presidential election but lose everything again in 2022.

A message like "trump sux" will only limit our gains. What can we do differently from Trump to improve the lives of American people?

Oh by the way depending on demographics to save the party is a fools errand.

[Figueira]

Yeah, the Senate will go badly for Democrats unless there's a HUGE wave combined with depolarization and incumbency advantages. But there are other things up in 2018 besides the Senate.

[Bismarck]

I think based off of a likely bad Trump approval the reps pick up 2 seats in MO and IN while losing NV/AZ an maybe either TX due to Ted being Ted or UT due to thrid party so a range of +1 R to +1 D seems reasonable. While in the house pants a much easier path for dems which I why I'm very confident in a D flip in 2018

Isn't Cruz pretty popular on Texas? Utah likes all non Trump republicans and he still won by a decent margin. Agreed about NV/AZ and IN/MO and I think ND will flip as well, and possibly an upset in OH or Florida. GOP will lose seats but keep the house pretty easily.

[Nyvin]

Does anybody have the same numbers for the House? I imagine there are more Hillary-district Republicans than Trump-district Democrats, but that might just be projecting.

GOP Congressmen in Hillary Districts: 22
Dem Congressmen in Trump Districts: 10

difference: 12



2016 GOP House seats won: 241
2016 Dem House seats won: 194

difference: 47

The Democrats don't need 241 seats, they just need 218.   That's a net gain of 24 seats.