Which Republican Senator is the most likely to get blanched?

[Associate Justice PiT]

If Darryl Glenn could come within 7 points of Bennet, then you're delusional if you think Gardner is doomed.

2016 was a Republican wave and Bennet isn't a particularly strong incumbent.

How is a year where the democrats gain seats in both houses of congress and win the popular vote a Republican wave?

     Yeah, I was thinking the same. The real issue with picking Gardner is that Colorado is heavily polarized. It doesn't seem to produce landslide elections like some other states do.

[Heisenberg]

If Darryl Glenn could come within 7 points of Bennet, then you're delusional if you think Gardner is doomed.

2016 was a Republican wave and Bennet isn't a particularly strong incumbent.

How is a year where the democrats gain seats in both houses of congress and win the popular vote a Republican wave?

Republicans won so many seats in 2014 that Democrats had nowhere to go but up. It was an R wave in the sense that Democrats didn't gain as many in either house than expected. The Senate is more about which seats are up, and which ones are open that anything else (see 2014, all those open seats in (Atlas) blue states made it look more R than it really was).

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If Darryl Glenn could come within 7 points of Bennet, then you're delusional if you think Gardner is doomed.

2016 was a Republican wave and Bennet isn't a particularly strong incumbent.

How is a year where the democrats gain seats in both houses of congress and win the popular vote a Republican wave?

Republicans won so many seats in 2014 that Democrats had nowhere to go but up. It was an R wave in the sense that Democrats didn't gain as many in either house than expected. The Senate is more about which seats are up, and which ones are open that anything else (see 2014, all those open seats in (Atlas) blue states made it look more R than it really was).

2016 was no more an R wave than 2012 was a D wave (at least they actually gained senate seats).
If anything it was a neutral year, with slight reversion to the mean on the Congressional level and a split on the presidential.

[MT Treasurer]

Extremely conservative Republicans like Glenn have a very high floor in a state as polarized as CO. And I'm glad that the GOP didn't spend money in CO after Glenn won the primary, or else they might have lost PA, WI and MO.

Regarding 2020, I think the race starts out as Lean D. I don't think Gardner will be able to hold on, he only beat a terrible Democratic incumbent by less than 2 points in a midterm year. And the state isn't exactly trending in his favor either. If I had to call it now, I'd say he loses by 4 or 5 points, but who knows.

[Heisenberg]

I'd say the Colorado Senate race in 2020 is Lean D to start, and Gardner will go down, but with honor (overperforming Trump, losing by 5). Colorado's leftward trend will catch up to him, the 2014 (or maybe 2018) elections were/will be the last hoorah.

The GOP needs to defend North Carolina, Maine (I'd like to see Poliquin primary Collins), and Montana and/or Alaska. Offensive targets are Virginia (Scott Taylor), Minnesota (Paulsen or McFadden), and Michigan (Benishek or Trott).

[henster]

Hick will probably run against Gardner in 2020.

[The_Doctor]

I'd say someone up in 2022-2024 when the bloom is off the Republican rose. But absent data we can't even speculate on an educated basis.

[coloradocowboi]

I suspect that barring a hard right turn by Gardner or Ernst, either one will hold on.  Tillis is probably the answer, but there's no guarantee he would lose reelection.

This plays very, very poorly in CO:

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/03/cory-gardners-claim-of-paid-protesters-calling-his-office-2-letters/

He won't be "Blanched," but there is absolutely no way he wins in 2020 unless the Dems nominate a child molestor.

[Hanging Chad]

If Darryl Glenn could come within 7 points of Bennet, then you're delusional if you think Gardner is doomed.

2016 was a Republican wave and Bennet isn't a particularly strong incumbent.

How is a year where the democrats gain seats in both houses of congress and win the popular vote a Republican wave?

Republicans won so many seats in 2014 that Democrats had nowhere to go but up. It was an R wave in the sense that Democrats didn't gain as many in either house than expected. The Senate is more about which seats are up, and which ones are open that anything else (see 2014, all those open seats in (Atlas) blue states made it look more R than it really was).

2016 was no more an R wave than 2012 was a D wave (at least they actually gained senate seats).
If anything it was a neutral year, with slight reversion to the mean on the Congressional level and a split on the presidential.

Agreed, but the 2016 class also hasn't seen a D wave in a while (1986).  On the other hand, it's really remarkable how the 2012 senate class has seen only one Republican wave (1994) in the past 60 years, and now with Trump in office, is quite unlikely to see one in 2018 or 2024.  The latter would require a Dem to defeat a 1st term incumbent and then become very unpopular within 4 years.

The overall partisanship of the map might lead to a 2018 GOP wave regardless of trump. Keep in mind that while the democrats can target really only Heller (NV) and Flake (AZ), the Republicans can target the Red State Dems of McCaskill (MO) Donnelly (IN) Heitkamp (ND) Tester (MT) and possibly even Manchin (WV). That's not even mentioning the swing state Dems of Nelson (FL) Brown (OH) Baldwin (WI) Casey (PA) and Kaine (VA). Another factor is that the midterm electorate tends to favor Republicans as it is generally older, whiter, and richer. With the exception of 2006, in which a major war was going terribly and becoming increasingly incredibly unpopular, the Democrats have not had a good midterm since 1990. Yet another factor is the increased partisanship of states and the death of split tickets. Whether those factors or the traditional midterm anti incumbent president factor ends up deciding it remains to be seen but I think it's far from certain that the Republicans won't gain significantly in 2018.

[Blackacre]

For the record, my answer was Thom Tills, assuming that Dems win in 2020 and that win includes an ever-demm-trending North Carolina. However, should a Republican win in 2020, the answer is probably Isaakson, (should he run for a third term) Johnson, (see Isaakson) or Burr.

[MT Treasurer]

For the record, my answer was Thom Tills, assuming that Dems win in 2020 and that win includes an ever-demm-trending North Carolina. However, should a Republican win in 2020, the answer is probably Isaakson, (should he run for a third term) Johnson, (see Isaakson) or Burr.

Isakson getting Blanched? Haha, no. He's one of the few Republican officeholders in GA who could win even in a Democratic GA. The race will be a Tossup once he retires (which will be 2022 or maybe even before), though.

I don't even see Tillis, Johnson or Burr getting Blanched. Their states are far too polarized for that to happen..