Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll

[The Other Castro]

Mine should be finished tonight or tomorrow.

[cinyc]

I am doing a 2020 survey right and I made the mistake of including Other as an option and 67% of the responses I have gotten so far are Other (Trump supporters?).  I do however have multiple gmail accounts so I'll try another one when I'm done with this one.

Did you do other with a write-in option to specify?  You can separately count those write-in responses, but it's a pain.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I am doing a 2020 survey right and I made the mistake of including Other as an option and 67% of the responses I have gotten so far are Other (Trump supporters?).  I do however have multiple gmail accounts so I'll try another one when I'm done with this one.

Did you do other with a write-in option to specify?  You can separately count those write-in responses, but it's a pain.

I should have, but I didn't.  I couldn't find the option to be honest.

[The Other Castro]

The poll is complete! 5 candidates were offered as options, as well as an option to write in a candidate not listed (and an option to say you would not be voting in the primary). I recalculated the numbers with the non-voting and invalid responses removed:

If the Democratic Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election were held today in your state, who would you vote for?

Elizabeth Warren - 46%
Cory Booker - 19%
Chris Murphy - 11%
Kamala Harris - 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9%
---------------------------------
Bernie Sanders (write-in) - 1%
Michelle Obama (write-in) - <1%
Martin O’Malley (write-in) - <1%
----------------------------
Unknown/Undecided - 5%

The number of valid responses was 220.

[Mr. Morden]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

[The Other Castro]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

[cinyc]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

I'm curious having never conducted a national poll - for national polls, does Google Surveys break down the results only by region or also by state?  And am I right in assuming you still get age data?

[The Other Castro]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

I'm curious having never conducted a national poll - for national polls, does Google Surveys break down the results only by region or also by state?  And am I right in assuming you still get age data?

They allow you to break it down by four regions (Northeast, South, West, Midwest) or by state, but going by state with 220 usable responses nationally wasn't worth it. For example, there were only 8 responses in Iowa, 5 in New Hampshire, etc. You get age data as well in the categories of 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+.

[Crumpets]

Surprisingly good result for Chris Murphy.

[The Other Castro]

This was really fun and I have a 2nd email, so I've started a Trump/Cuomo general election match-up since I think he'd be one of the weakest Democrats could offer as a candidate. I would do more Democrats, but multiple question surveys are very expensive.


Edit: These initial Cuomo vs. Trump results would be pretty surprising if they hold up.

[cinyc]

This was really fun and I have a 2nd email, so I've started a Trump/Cuomo general election match-up since I think he'd be one of the weakest Democrats could offer as a candidate. I would do more Democrats, but multiple question surveys are very expensive.


Edit: These initial Cuomo vs. Trump results would be pretty surprising if they hold up.

Unless someone has a huge lead, they sometimes don't.  Depending on when the poll was put into the field, Google Surveys sometimes seems to ask its Android app users questions first, which skews the early results younger.  Thus, the early sample isn't necessarily representative of the country/state as a whole after the news/other site results are added in.

It is really interesting to watch the results come in and track how each type of geography/response type/age group/gender polls, though.  Almost addicting.  As you probably know, you can download the results in real time and track subsamples from batch to batch.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So there are the results of my survey:

509 responses

Bernie Sanders 25.1
Elizabeth Warren 16.1
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.3
Steve Bullock 4.1
Amy Klobuchar 3.9
Tammy Duckworth 3.8
Kamala Harris 3.3
John Hickenlooper 3.2
Maggie Hassan 1.2
Other 40.8

[Mr. Morden]

So there are the results of my survey:

509 responses

Bernie Sanders 25.1
Elizabeth Warren 16.1
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.3
Steve Bullock 4.1
Amy Klobuchar 3.9
Tammy Duckworth 3.8
Kamala Harris 3.3
John Hickenlooper 3.2
Maggie Hassan 1.2
Other 40.8

Was there an initial question to ask if they would vote in the Democratic primary, or was this poll question for everyone?  If the latter, then I'd assume that "other" would be mostly Republicans.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So there are the results of my survey:

509 responses

Bernie Sanders 25.1
Elizabeth Warren 16.1
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.3
Steve Bullock 4.1
Amy Klobuchar 3.9
Tammy Duckworth 3.8
Kamala Harris 3.3
John Hickenlooper 3.2
Maggie Hassan 1.2
Other 40.8

Was there an initial question to ask if they would vote in the Democratic primary, or was this poll question for everyone?  If the latter, then I'd assume that "other" would be mostly Republicans.

My survey question was:
 

If you would like to see a Democrat win the 2020 presidential election, which of these candidates would you vote for?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm doing a Wisconsin GE Survey : Trump vs. Warren vs. Petersen (L). I included an undecided option, and so far that is in first place, with Warren in second, but the survey is only half done.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I would be curious of seeing a 2018 California Senate race poll between Tom Steyer and Michael Eisen but I'm not going to waste $50 on this.

[LLR]

I'll try doing one later if I have time.

[The Other Castro]

Well, this is interesting:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates?

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 29%

Andrew Cuomo (Democratic Party) - 17%

Undecided/Unknown - 38%

Would Not Vote - 16%


If you factor out those who would not vote, Trump leads Cuomo 34%-21%, with 45% Undecided. I think I'm going to go without an Undecided option next time and see what happens.

Here's how they perform under particular filters, with non-voters factored out:

Men: Trump leads 37%-19%
Women: Trump leads 32%-22%

Midwest: Trump leads 32%-20%
Northeast: Cuomo leads 34%-26%
South: Trump leads 39%-15%
West: Trump leads 37%-20%

[cinyc]

Well, this is interesting:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates?

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 29%

Andrew Cuomo (Democratic Party) - 17%

Undecided/Unknown - 38%

Would Not Vote - 16%


If you factor out those who would not vote, Trump leads Cuomo 34%-21%, with 45% Undecided. I think I'm going to go without an Undecided option next time and see what happens.

Here's how they perform under particular filters, with non-voters factored out:

Men: Trump leads 37%-19%
Women: Trump leads 32%-22%

Midwest: Trump leads 32%-20%
Northeast: Cuomo leads 34%-26%
South: Trump leads 39%-15%
West: Trump leads 37%-20%

Your crosstabs sound plausible, except perhaps for West.  What states does Google Surveys consider West?  California must make up a good portion of its population, no?  What do they classify Texas as?  South, I hope?

[The Other Castro]

Your crosstabs sound plausible, except perhaps for West.  What states does Google Surveys consider West?  California must make up a good portion of its population, no?  What do they classify Texas as?  South, I hope?

From their website:

West (CA, AK, WA, OR, HI, ID, MT, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM), Midwest (ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, MN, WI, MI, IL, IN, OH), South (TX, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DC, DE) and Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT).

[LLR]

I'll try doing one later if I have time.

Doing a single state poll costs extra

[Sorenroy]

Just learned for myself how trash the "polls" are. I did a poll of Utah and asked about Trump favorabilities and of the 330 people surveyed, fully 108, or 32.7%, said that they were "Not sure" whether of not they approve or disapprove of Trump.

[The Other Castro]

I have some other emails that I've used for more polls, and started a Trump/Warren matchup and a Trump/Justin Amash primary matchup. Even with a male-heavy sample so far, Warren is doing much much better than Cuomo. The Trump/Amash matchup is about what you'd expect so far.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

lol what, you can do a survey of 500!?! I just did a quick one for 50 responses since I thought that's all I was entitled to. Guess I can use another account for a new one but whoops!

Anyway, in mine Tulsi Gabbard doing great so far! Love that n=25

[The Other Castro]

I got rid of the Undecided option for Warren vs. Trump:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates? (Factoring out those who selected I Would Not Vote / I Can Not Vote):

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 51%
Elizabeth Warren (Democratic Party) - 49%

Some Demographic filters (West still wonky, regional filters aren't that helpful):

Male: Trump 58%-42%
Females: Warren 56%-44%

Midwest: Warren 51%-49%
Northeast: Warren 66%-34%
South: Trump 58%-42%
West: Trump 54%-46%

----------------------------------

I also polled Trump vs. Amash (and an option for "will not vote in the Republican primaries):

If the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election were held today in your state, who would you vote for given the following candidates? (Factoring out non-primary voters)

Donald Trump - 45%
Justin Amash - 4%
Undecided/Unknown - 51%