Have the Democrats lost the White vote forever?

[Beet]

What would it take for Democrats to win the White vote? Discuss.

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

Win the White vote?

Democrats couldn't even win the White youth vote in 2016, they have no shot to win the collective White vote in 2020.

To improve with whites they should target noncollege educated whites because they're more "swing able" to their side when the economy is down.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When is the last time the Democrats won the white vote in the first place?  1964?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden would have won the election. Clinton was scandled which made the Trump upset possible. That's why the GOP rooted for Hilary instead of Sanders; in which they wouldn't have had much of a chance against either Sanders or Biden.

In 2018 and 2020, Dems will regain much of Obama coalition that was lost in 2016 and regain power.

[NeederNodder]

Trump abandoning his promises would get the Democrats the white house in 2020

[pppolitics]

The last Democrat to win the white vote is LBJ, so probably.

[Roronoa D. Law]

When is the last time the Democrats won the white vote in the first place?  1964?

Who cares? They don't exactly need to win it outright. Only do well enough.

I wonder what the map would look like if the Democrats actually became competitive with the white vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

When is the last time the Democrats won the white vote in the first place?  1964?

Who cares? They don't exactly need to win it outright. Only do well enough.

they need it to have good showings in congress and the states. Scraping past 270 every four years is not a good a strategy.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

They obviously need to reconnect to the forgotten man in dying America cuz that's where the future lies!

-That may not be where the future lies, but that was what worked the last time the Dems won the White vote (1964, 1948, FDR).

[Xing]

We definitely can't conclusively say they've lost it "forever", but it would take a massive landslide for Democrats to win it any time soon.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't know about winning the white vote, but dropping the rabid identity politics and focusing on issues that help people would certainly improve their performance.

[Ljube]

Yes.

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

I don't know about winning the white vote, but dropping the rabid identity politics and focusing on issues that help people would certainly improve their performance.

Yeah, Democrats' overemphasis on SJWism is a turnoff, but so are the white identity politics that Trump engages in. I think identity politics is here to stay, and they kinda cancel each other out.

The Alt Right/White Nationalists and the SJW's feed on each other. As one grows so does the other in response.

Not a pretty future with these two forces.

[Virginiá]

"Lost" as in they will not win an outright plurality (at least)? For the foreseeable future, yes. However, let's not pretend this is a huge deal. Yes, Democrats need white support for downballot races, and we do need to do at least slightly better than 38%-39%, but we don't need a majority. With an ever-diversifying country, we can afford to come up short in many places. It should also be noted that these losing margins are not uniform. The South really helps weigh it down. Finally, I think it's important to keep an eye on the support by age group. White voters ages 18-29 are much less Republican than, say, boomers. This will probably help Democrats stabilize their margins in the low 40s going forward, or at least prevent further erosion from where we're at now. Long-term, those are winning numbers for us.

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

"Lost" as in they will not win an outright plurality (at least)? For the foreseeable future, yes. However, let's not pretend this is a huge deal. Yes, Democrats need white support for downballot races, and we do need to do at least slightly better than 38%-39%, but we don't need a majority. With an ever-diversifying country, we can afford to come up short in many places. It should also be noted that these losing margins are not uniform. The South really helps weigh it down. Finally, I think it's important to keep an eye on the support by age group. White voters ages 18-29 are much less Republican than, say, boomers. This will probably help Democrats stabilize their margins in the low 40s going forward, or at least prevent further erosion from where we're at now. Long-term, those are winning numbers for us.

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

[Virginiá]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

[Crumpets]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

Very true. One of the few specific details I remember of the Florida recounts in 2000 was that Gore claimed the butterfly ballot was harming his chances, as it was confusing to older people - specifically old, southern, white people, whom Gore actually did pretty well with.

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

They will almost certainly be much more culturally conservative as a result of college campuses and people like Milo and Shapiro.

Look at the CNN exit polls in Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. The 18-24 year olds were considerably more conservative than the 25-29 year olds were in each of these states. In some cases the disparity was so great that it was likely 18-20 year olds within that bracket that was skewing the entire bracket conservative.

Democrats are really screwing themselves with White youth because of the SJW nonsense. Obama wasn't afraid to speak out against the college campus environments that try to strangle free speech. In fact he spoke out multiple times.

If the Democrats don't have any leader to stand up to this element within their Party or worse, if they perpetuate it, then the upcoming White youth will be consoderably more conservative as a backlash.

[Shadows]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

They will almost certainly be much more culturally conservative as a result of college campuses and people like Milo and Shapiro.

Look at the CNN exit polls in Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. The 18-24 year olds were considerably more conservative than the 25-29 year olds were in each of these states. In some cases the disparity was so great that it was likely 18-20 year olds within that bracket that was skewing the entire bracket conservative.

Democrats are really screwing themselves with White youth because of the SJW nonsense. Obama wasn't afraid to speak out against the college campus environments that try to strangle free speech. In fact he spoke out multiple times.

If the Democrats don't have any leader to stand up to this element within their Party or worse, if they perpetuate it, then the upcoming White youth will be consoderably more conservative as a backlash.

Bernie would have mopped the floor with Trump in the Mid-west among young voters. For obvious reasons, Hillary was a poor candidate, a lot of people stayed home, many voted for 3rd parties, some only voted downticket & some voted Trump to screw the establishment.

There's a very small section of people who give a shi* about lunatics like Milo. Millennials are massively left in social issues. Republicans will be destroyed in this group on the issue of gay marriage alone which young people overwhelmingly support.

This was Hillary's best group where she won comfortably despite her major flaws. This was the group Obama absolutely killed McCain & Romney with. If & when the Dems nominate a candidate who can appeal to millennials, it will be a landslide victory with this group.

Also most polls including from Harvard show this group feels much stronger affinity to Dems than the GOP. The Republican party has lost the young voters for a whole generation & this will absolutely cost them badly in Presidential races!

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

They will almost certainly be much more culturally conservative as a result of college campuses and people like Milo and Shapiro.

Look at the CNN exit polls in Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. The 18-24 year olds were considerably more conservative than the 25-29 year olds were in each of these states. In some cases the disparity was so great that it was likely 18-20 year olds within that bracket that was skewing the entire bracket conservative.

Democrats are really screwing themselves with White youth because of the SJW nonsense. Obama wasn't afraid to speak out against the college campus environments that try to strangle free speech. In fact he spoke out multiple times.

If the Democrats don't have any leader to stand up to this element within their Party or worse, if they perpetuate it, then the upcoming White youth will be consoderably more conservative as a backlash.

Bernie would have mopped the floor with Trump in the Mid-west among young voters. For obvious reasons, Hillary was a poor candidate, a lot of people stayed home, many voted for 3rd parties, some only voted downticket & some voted Trump to screw the establishment.

There's a very small section of people who give a shi* about lunatics like Milo. Millennials are massively left in social issues. Republicans will be destroyed in this group on the issue of gay marriage alone which young people overwhelmingly support.

This was Hillary's best group where she won comfortably despite her major flaws. This was the group Obama absolutely killed McCain & Romney with. If & when the Dems nominate a candidate who can appeal to millennials, it will be a landslide victory with this group.

Also most polls including from Harvard show this group feels much stronger affinity to Dems than the GOP. The Republican party has lost the young voters for a whole generation & this will absolutely cost them badly in Presidential races!

If Bernie had gone full social justice warrior in the general election and kept making gaffes like "If you're White then you don't know what it's like to be poor" then he wouldn't have mopped the floor with young Whites voters; particularly those in the rust belt.

Obama has routinely publically critiqued the college campus environment and he ran campaigns in a pre-SJW college world. At least in 2012 this hadn't it the mainstream yet. It started becoming common knowledge of the general public by 2014 at the earliest. He was smart to go after them when they tried to silence voices of opposition such as guest speakers on college campuses. Will this new SJW wing of the Party be silenced by mainstream demcorats? Given how candidates like Hillary and Bernie ran this year I highly highly doubt that.

We're talking about White millennials, I have no doubt that republicans will continue to do poorly among black and many Hispanic millennials. However this idea that the democrats will be able to rely solely on White youth to keep their margins with White voters strong is unlikely.

Trump is changing the direction of the Republican Party in a way that might actually help republicans with White millennials going forward. We'll see what he actually does as President. This SJW wing is alienating former moderate white democrats like myself and I know plenty of anecdotal examples from my friends in Southern California of all places.

[henster]

Ds don't need to win the white vote, they need around 39-43% which is right around where Bill & Obama got in their victories.

[Virginiá]

Look at the CNN exit polls in Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. The 18-24 year olds were considerably more conservative than the 25-29 year olds were in each of these states. In some cases the disparity was so great that it was likely 18-20 year olds within that bracket that was skewing the entire bracket conservative.

I did think that was interesting, particularly since the GOP share for 18-29 year olds overall actually went down from 2012 despite these upticks, which implied youth in other areas of the country became more Democratic.

Hillary was detested by young people, and she was a terrible fit for the rustbelt/GL region. For a while, many people believed (with good reason) that she would bomb out among younger Millennials and on a national scale that didn't really happen nearly as bad as initially feared. However, she was bound to bomb in some regions, and that just happened to be the rustbelt.

It's worth noting, imo, that Trump didn't win 18-24 year olds by that much in states like MN/WI. It was only single digit margins, or in WI's case, literally just 2 points. This one election won't tell us how the rising generation in that state will trend anymore than MN/WI in 2000 did, where Bush actually won 18-29 year olds in MN despite seeing that group trending hard left in the years to follow. The real question will be how these people vote in 2020. Recall that 18-29 / 18-24 year olds went strongly for Obama in MN/WI in 2012, so this sharp reversal looks more like a backlash but could be showing us a new pro-Republican trend. We just can't tell from this one event.

Democrats are really screwing themselves with White youth because of the SJW nonsense. Obama wasn't afraid to speak out against the college campus environments that try to strangle free speech. In fact he spoke out multiple times.

Not really. I'd say Democrats are just reacting to the current environment. Young people are a critical part of our base, and so the party has to make decisions based on that. I don't understand - are you implying white youth are not pushing SJW stuff themselves? And that they sit on the sidelines, watching in disgust (or something)? The fact is that young white voters were almost as Democratic as they were in 2012, but a lot less Republican. The SJW stuff is not going to make a difference to this crop of young people because many are engaged, supportive or even just neutral to it. Even those who reject a lot of it won't necessarily base their partisan choices on it, either.

Now, if you want to say in the future, then I might agree that if this keeps escalating, we could one day see a relatively quick (or maybe just gradual) break from that culture, just as has happened in the past. However, that could take decades and there is no guarantee Democrats won't adjust in ways to mitigate any loss in partisan support.

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

We'll have to see how young Whites vote in 2018 and 2020 to get a clear trend, one election isn't enough to establish a clear trend one way or another.

But you're greatly underestimating the backlash that social justice is causing among white millennials and especially among upcoming white generation z voters. You can go onto YouTube and find videos with hundreds of thousands if not millions of views that just scorn SJW's. In fact there are entire YouTube channels just dedicated solely to that. Millions of young watchers seeing these opinions being circulated around the internet. You can't tell me this isn't having a significant effect on young white kids.

And their audience is definitely born 1980 and after. In fact most of the watchers are born 1996 and later. The SJW wing of the Democratic Party will only grow stronger as a backlash to Trumps presidency. Just like how White nationalist sentiment grew during Obama's tenure and came full force in the 2016 election. SJW's like the "Justice Democrats" will do their best to make sure that every insane idea like trigger warnings, safe spaces, microsgressions, a slavery tax on whites for reparations to blacks, etc. will be apart of the Democratic platform by 2024.

You guys are really, really delusional if you think that 40% or more of young Whites will feel comfortable voting for your Party when the Party starts to go down this path fully. Democrats will never tone down on these issues and all indicators point to them allowing these voices in their Party to take control. There's a reason why the alt right has so successfully targeted young Whites to their movement over everybody else.

[Rjjr77]

No. In 40 years the republicans could be the party of ethnic minorities while the democrats could be the party of white majority. You don't know what changes could occur

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.

A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.

Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.

Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.

As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.

They will almost certainly be much more culturally conservative as a result of college campuses and people like Milo and Shapiro.

Look at the CNN exit polls in Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. The 18-24 year olds were considerably more conservative than the 25-29 year olds were in each of these states. In some cases the disparity was so great that it was likely 18-20 year olds within that bracket that was skewing the entire bracket conservative.

Democrats are really screwing themselves with White youth because of the SJW nonsense. Obama wasn't afraid to speak out against the college campus environments that try to strangle free speech. In fact he spoke out multiple times.

If the Democrats don't have any leader to stand up to this element within their Party or worse, if they perpetuate it, then the upcoming White youth will be consoderably more conservative as a backlash.

I would say Hillary 20-50 point wins among the 18-24 demographic in other states like IL, FL, CA, GA, TX, AZ, NC and VA are much more concerning to Republicans than Democrats barely breaking even or narrowly losing the 18-24 demo in those Midwestern states. Not to mention, the former are growing, the latter are shrinking. So I'd say that alt-Rightism is probably much more toxic than SJWism is in the long run. I guess Republicans could see if they can actually wittle themselves down to 3-4 seats in California if they wanted to at this rate.

The alt-right has much smaller numbers.  There also aren't any alt-right professors indoctrinating students.