Mexican reaction

[ag]

Well, time to post on what we will/should do. This is a mixture of what is actually being seriously discussed and of my own thoughts. It is not, in any sense, anything oficial, but it does seem to reflect a lot of the thinking out loud that is going on.

Shyte happened, eggs are broken, we are all screwed. Everybody agrees on that. Now, what is to be done.

1. We cannot fight - everybody knows this, nobody is kidding themselves, it is not even under discussion.

2. We are, of course, all enraged - but rage is not something you can butter your bread with. We do want the dignity preserved, but that is our own business.

3. We are not the only ones being screwed, but we happen to be the most exposed. We have to reduce this exposure.

4. Hence: ok, fine, NAFTA is dead, we are not even going to try to save it. You want to withdraw? Done. No, we do not want a deal.

5. That means, we are in the WTO world. When nations joined the WTO, they committed themselves to certain trade policies. Actually, US is committed to the average tariff of around 3% versus Mexico (Mexico can go slightly higher against the US, but that is not, really, the point). We can live with that.

6. The important thing is that, once we are on the WTO, whatever Mr. Trump wants to do to us, he cannot really do specifically to us. He has to tear up the WTO - he is welcome to do this, we will say nothing, we will let the Chinese worry about that

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025. Big investments are not done for the sake of 4 years. Furthermore, friendship is essential for doing business in Mexico, and friends in need... well, I think I am making my point here.

8. Of course, cooperation between neighbours is not only about trade. At this point, though, we can trade on cooperation. Security, migration (including migration from third countries), drug policy, whatever: all of this now is subject to hard cash pre-payment. You want a deal?

9. Finally, we cannot be pushed too far. Not because we are strong: because we are weak.  Push us too hard, and we will collapse. Sure, you can convert us into another Syria pretty easily: you are really sure that you want a Syria right on your southern border? I mean, the Mediterranean is a bit of a better obstacle than any wall you might build... And do not really think you will be a ble to control it either: Gen. Pershing never caught Pancho Villa, but Pancho Villa did burn Columbus NM.

10. This last is not a threat and I do know that it will be a lot worse for us than for you. But it will be very unpleasant to you as well, and, unlike us, you can do something about it.

To sum up: hunker down and wait out the storm.

[RI]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

[publicunofficial]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

You know what will really stop illegal immigration? Turning Mexico into a failed state.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'd love to see a hypothetical meeting between President Trump and President Obrador.

CALLED IT

[ag]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

The former is not impossible, the latter would be extremely costly. Mexico is a mountainous country, with wild terrain and numerous hiding places. The guerilla war (much of it stuffed by the former drug gangs) would be horrendous. And, of course, keeping your troups south of The Wall would make that Eall easier to penetrate in the other direction as well. You really want to bother about Mexican terrorists in your cities? They will not have far to go.

[ag]

I'd love to see a hypothetical meeting between President Trump and President Obrador.

CALLED IT

On the bridge between El Paso and Juarez

[JA]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

You know what will really stop illegal immigration? Turning Mexico into a failed state.

Nationalists aren't very bright, otherwise they wouldn't be nationalists.

I'm not sure how it's so difficult for people to comprehend that we all benefit when all of us have better lives. If we cooperate with Mexico and both countries work together, we can help Mexico and, in turn, help reduce any problems related to undocumented immigration and crime stemming from the country. But, considering this would required an admission of guilt and wrongdoing on the part of America, I don't foresee that ever happening. People prefer blaming Mexicans for everything, then try to hurt their country by punishing American consumers with higher prices. Makes sense, right?

If Mexico becomes further destabilized or collapses, how is that remotely good for American national interest? Do we really want a civil war, terrorism, or a humanitarian crisis on our border? Do we really want millions of innocent Mexican people suffering like that? If the answer is anything but a resounding "no," then the problem is clearly not Mexico or Mexicans - it's America and Americans.

[ag]

Oh give me a break.

1. Look you guys will stop your flow of drugs and criminals into our country

2. We'll renegotiate NAFTA with you guys

And we'll be good. No war, no syria lol, no nukes no nothing.

Just a brighter future for American workers and American communities.

Well, once you are done remaking America into a dirt-poor underdeveloped country, call us. We know how to survive in one.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Given that the Mexican Dug War pushed for by Calderon was a shambolic disaster, what else do you propose in regards to drugs short of Duterte style PURGES.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

You know what will really stop illegal immigration? Turning Mexico into a failed state.

Nationalists aren't very bright, otherwise they wouldn't be nationalists.

I'm not sure how it's so difficult for people to comprehend that we all benefit when all of us have better lives. If we cooperate with Mexico and both countries work together, we can help Mexico and, in turn, help reduce any problems related to undocumented immigration and crime stemming from the country. But, considering this would required an admission of guilt and wrongdoing on the part of America, I don't foresee that ever happening. People prefer blaming Mexicans for everything, then try to hurt their country by punishing American consumers with higher prices. Makes sense, right?

If Mexico becomes further destabilized or collapses, how is that remotely good for American national interest? Do we really want a civil war, terrorism, or a humanitarian crisis on our border? Do we really want millions of innocent Mexican people suffering like that? If the answer is anything but a resounding "no," then the problem is clearly not Mexico or Mexicans - it's America and Americans.

[ag]

-A country's democratically-elected government is fundamentally a reflection of its people. I would not want the government of America to look like that of Mexico (or New Mexico).

At least, now I can sincerely reciprocate. I would not want the government of my country to look like the current government of the US.

[ag]

If that's the case (which I doubt), then this question is for ag: do you have room for an American who doesn't want to live in a country dominated by nationalist fanatics? I'd happily learn Spanish and live among the people of Mexico than here among these sociopaths.

Yes, we do. I, myself, have been actively participating by hiring Americans to come to work to Mexico. There are many places where Americans are welcome. There are whole English-speaking communities around here (slightly tongue-in-cheek these are sometimes known as "gringotepecs"). Just today we have been discussing at work what we can do to DACA kids (from all countries, not only from Mexico) who will now have to leave the US. I really hope to be able to do something there: will be trying to arrange for scholarships, etc. And, actually, Mexican government does give scholarships to foreign students to study here. If you are of student age, let me know - I can direct you to the info.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Well, you can't force someone to accept statistics and facts, I guess. #thanks2016

-Agreed. Thankfully, I'm not Sean Spicer.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In some thread I tried salvaging posts that quoted the sock.  (My policy is to consign all sock posts to the memory hole, so that they'll have less incentive to sock in the future.)  I didn't see anything worth the effort in this thread, so I was brute force about deleting such posts.

[pbrower2a]

Well, you can't force someone to accept statistics and facts, I guess. #thanks2016

But almost any attempt to deny factual reality gets unwelcome results.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

The former is not impossible, the latter would be extremely costly. Mexico is a mountainous country, with wild terrain and numerous hiding places. The guerilla war (much of it stuffed by the former drug gangs) would be horrendous. And, of course, keeping your troups south of The Wall would make that Eall easier to penetrate in the other direction as well. You really want to bother about Mexican terrorists in your cities? They will not have far to go.

He forgets that there would be tens of thousands of American terrorists of Mexican descent. I'd side with the Mexican guerillas against the fascist, of course.

[Meclazine for Israel]

It is good to have a forum with a Mexican opinion. Nice work Ag.

[JJC]

Well, time to post on what we will/should do. This is a mixture of what is actually being seriously discussed and of my own thoughts. It is not, in any sense, anything oficial, but it does seem to reflect a lot of the thinking out loud that is going on.

Shyte happened, eggs are broken, we are all screwed. Everybody agrees on that. Now, what is to be done.

1. We cannot fight - everybody knows this, nobody is kidding themselves, it is not even under discussion.

2. We are, of course, all enraged - but rage is not something you can butter your bread with. We do want the dignity preserved, but that is our own business.

3. We are not the only ones being screwed, but we happen to be the most exposed. We have to reduce this exposure.

4. Hence: ok, fine, NAFTA is dead, we are not even going to try to save it. You want to withdraw? Done. No, we do not want a deal.

5. That means, we are in the WTO world. When nations joined the WTO, they committed themselves to certain trade policies. Actually, US is committed to the average tariff of around 3% versus Mexico (Mexico can go slightly higher against the US, but that is not, really, the point). We can live with that.

6. The important thing is that, once we are on the WTO, whatever Mr. Trump wants to do to us, he cannot really do specifically to us. He has to tear up the WTO - he is welcome to do this, we will say nothing, we will let the Chinese worry about that

7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025. Big investments are not done for the sake of 4 years. Furthermore, friendship is essential for doing business in Mexico, and friends in need... well, I think I am making my point here.

8. Of course, cooperation between neighbours is not only about trade. At this point, though, we can trade on cooperation. Security, migration (including migration from third countries), drug policy, whatever: all of this now is subject to hard cash pre-payment. You want a deal?

9. Finally, we cannot be pushed too far. Not because we are strong: because we are weak.  Push us too hard, and we will collapse. Sure, you can convert us into another Syria pretty easily: you are really sure that you want a Syria right on your southern border? I mean, the Mediterranean is a bit of a better obstacle than any wall you might build... And do not really think you will be a ble to control it either: Gen. Pershing never caught Pancho Villa, but Pancho Villa did burn Columbus NM.

10. This last is not a threat and I do know that it will be a lot worse for us than for you. But it will be very unpleasant to you as well, and, unlike us, you can do something about it.

To sum up: hunker down and wait out the storm.

We've already borne the cost of the Mexican government's corruption, failures, poverty, and ineptitude.

We cannot be Mexico's welfare state anymore.

We cannot import Mexico's poverty anymore.

We cannot import Mexico's drug cartels anymore.

We cannot import Mexico's criminals anymore.

It is not our job nor our duty to bear the cost of Mexico's burden. Nor is it our responsibility to prop up the mexican economy, especially when in many cases it hurts American workers. Mexico has a lot of problems, not least of which is the drug cartels holding leverage on so many government politicians. Perhaps one day this will change. Perhaps not. One way to rid MExico of cartels - which I'm convinced represents the majority of the country's problems - is to dry up their funds (cut off their access through the border). Regardless, the politicians, cartels, and international businessmen in Mexico flourish while it's citizens remain impoverished. And that poverty has been pushed towards us for too long. In the past 3-4 decades we've absorbed over 1/3 of the mexican population. We just can't afford it anymore.

We've borne the cost for too long.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In the past 3-4 decades we've absorbed over 1/3 of the mexican population. We just can't afford it anymore.

We've borne the cost for too long.

What we can't afford is being careless with the facts. The total number of foreign-born residents in the U.S. is indeed around 1/3 of the Mexican population, but that's including both legal and illegal immigrants, as well as immigrants from all countries, not just Mexico. The number of illegal immigrants from Mexico is roughly 5% of the Mexican population. Still a high number, but not anywhere near the mass exodus you are claiming.

[ag]

It is good to have a forum with a Mexican opinion. Nice work Ag.

Get.lost.

[PeteB]

@ag, my suggestion to Mexico is to lay low for now.  Any NAFTA renegotiation will have to be done with both Canada and Mexico and would take years.  If Trump slaps any kind of tariff on Mexico by Executive Order, it could (and should) be challenged, both at the US Supreme Court and in the WTO. 

While some here seem to relish pushing Mexico to the brink, I do not think that course of action is either moral or beneficial to the US.  As you pointed out, having a source of instability on the southern border is hardly good.  Don't take this the wrong way but ITM, if Mexico wants to help itself, it could finally try to fix the chronic drug trafficking problem.

Besides, I am absolutely convinced that Trump will get himself into real trouble.  He still seems to be in campaign mode and is not ready to govern.  The last thing Mexico should do is give him a raison d'etre to mobilize supporters and push his other problems aside.

[Santander]

@ag, my suggestion to Mexico is to lay low for now.  Any NAFTA renegotiation will have to be done with both Canada and Mexico and would take years.

Of all the people in the world to delay or stand up to Trump, you are saying it'll be Justin Trudeau? Give me a break.

If anyone moves Trump on NAFTA, it'll be Mexico or the GOP leadership.

[Person Man]

Of course, if NAFTA doesn't work out, there's always China who is waiting.

[PeteB]

@ag, my suggestion to Mexico is to lay low for now.  Any NAFTA renegotiation will have to be done with both Canada and Mexico and would take years.

Of all the people in the world to delay or stand up to Trump, you are saying it'll be Justin Trudeau? Give me a break.

If anyone moves Trump on NAFTA, it'll be Mexico or the GOP leadership.

Diplomacy doesn't quite work that way; especially with a complex agreement like NAFTA, that affects millions of jobs in all three countries. By the time Trump and Trudeau (and Pena Nieto?) meet to sign some new agreement, months of negotiations would have passed.

Of course, Trump could try to scuttle it now, through executive orders, triggering a US recession but that would just speed up the inevitable - his impeachment!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

You forgot #11 - Vincente Fox is unhinged.