Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions

[Xing]

A lot of posters assumed that Republicans would just keep surging after 2016, and that the Senate results of 2018 would mirror the results from 2016 (McCaskill and Donnelly would get Blanched, Casey/Baldwin were highly vulnerable, King was somewhat vulnerable, etc.) Some have come to terms with the reality of midterms and the swinging pendulum, others haven't.

[Politician]

A lot of posters assumed that Republicans would just keep surging after 2016, and that the Senate results of 2018 would mirror the results from 2016 (McCaskill and Donnelly would get Blanched, Casey/Baldwin were highly vulnerable, King was somewhat vulnerable, etc.) Some have come to terms with the reality of midterms and the swinging pendulum, others haven't.

Looking at you Limo and Lear.

In 2009, we also did this, many posters predicted Democrats would gain Senate seats that year.

[IceSpear]

A lot of posters assumed that Republicans would just keep surging after 2016, and that the Senate results of 2018 would mirror the results from 2016 (McCaskill and Donnelly would get Blanched, Casey/Baldwin were highly vulnerable, King was somewhat vulnerable, etc.) Some have come to terms with the reality of midterms and the swinging pendulum, others haven't.

Looking at you Limo and Lear.

In 2009, we also did this, many posters predicted Democrats would gain Senate seats that year.

I'm old enough to remember "The only vulnerable seats for Democrats are Arkansas (which is lean D) and California, but ONLY if Schwarzenegger runs!"

lol

[Adam Griffin]

Doomrand!

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

To be fair, part of why his expectations were so favorable for Rs is because he didn’t foresee how badly they’d botch candidate recruitment.

[Virginiá]

I mean, these seem way too generous to Republicans right off the bat when you consider the midterm dynamic. It's the same reason we can all agree that a Clinton midterm would wipe them out that we should be able to agree most, possibly even all of the Democratic incumbents will find their way back to Congress. Unpopular presidents do not have good midterms, ever. Trump was unpopular at the time this post was made, ergo it would have been safer to at least move a lot more of these to the toss-up category, and some others, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, to Leans D. That would be one hell of a midterm for Republicans to pick off 5 - 7 Democratic Senators, even with this map.

I suppose a good rule of thumb might be to favor incumbents until the election cycle is fully underway and the candidates become known, and/or until a major scandal occurs.

[KingSweden]

To be fair, part of why his expectations were so favorable for Rs is because he didn’t foresee how badly they’d botch candidate recruitment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gloomyrand strikes again!  He was a great poster though, shame he left

[Sadader]

A lot of posters assumed that Republicans would just keep surging after 2016, and that the Senate results of 2018 would mirror the results from 2016 (McCaskill and Donnelly would get Blanched, Casey/Baldwin were highly vulnerable, King was somewhat vulnerable, etc.) Some have come to terms with the reality of midterms and the swinging pendulum, others haven't.

Looking at you Limo and Lear.

In 2009, we also did this, many posters predicted Democrats would gain Senate seats that year.

to be back in the days where the Unbeatable Titan Eternal Democratic Majority was the circlejerk :’)

2010 was pretty surprising though, if you told me that Obama had 48%~ approval on election day, I’d guess that they’d keep both majorities easily. I was extremely glad on election night; I’d guessed that the GOP would take the senate narrowly.

I think an important thing to take from this thread is that you shouldn’t frame your mind in whatever election has just happened, for example with everyone convinced that Republicans would now always exceed polling averages. Most elections are just amalgamations of ramdom factors which won’t necessarily be replicated even a year on. People really need to get out of the 2016 frame of mind.

[SWE]

Always worth pointing out that Talleyrand overestimated the Democrats in both 2014 and and 2016.

[Mike Thick]

Always worth pointing out that Talleyrand overestimated the Democrats in both 2014 and and 2016.

This says more about the Democrats than it does about Talleyrand