WV-Sen: Jenkins running

[Klartext89]

It's likely R for me.

Good News for the President, Manchin will work with him even more closely because every vote against Trump will be a problem for Manchin in WV.

But, it is also possible that his Agenda will turn off the few but still existing hard core liberal Democrats.

I honestly can't see a way for him to overcome being disliked by both sides at the end. For Republicans, he's still not one of them, for Dems, he's a DINO.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think Trump saves Manchin's ass in this race. He might not endorse him, but he'll speak very growling of Manchin to the press which'll go a long way inn WV.

[RINO Tom]

Don't forget Manchin's now in leadership amongst Senate Democrats... that's only going to hurt him in a state Trump won by 40 points.

Starts as Lean R.

I actually think that could help him, no?  WV loves its pork historically, and I think he could win over some voters who might have be moving away from their ancestral party by touting the influence he could have in DC on behalf of his state (kind of the opposite effect of McConnell earning Santender's vote in 2014, if you will).  This will still be a really good race, though, and I imagine it could be anywhere from Tilt D (if Trump is unpopular) to Lean R (if Trump is popular).  Then again, WV proved in 2016 that ticket splitting is far from dead there (admittedly in a non-national race), and I could easily see the voters there thinking of Manchin as having worked with Trump sufficiently and sending him back to DC.

[jamestroll]

Hey guys...

This may be a disappointment but I do not think Manchin is necessarily DOA against Jenkins.

Oh and look at West Virginia 3. Without the "socialist kenyan born muslim" in the white house it does appear that Democrats could make effort and win that seat. Remember we have very little chance of winning the Senate in 2018 but the house is certainly a possibility. Democrats still have quite a bit of success in West Virginia 03.

[Heisenberg]

Hey guys...

This may be a disappointment but I do not think Manchin is necessarily DOA against Jenkins.

Oh and look at West Virginia 3. Without the "socialist kenyan born muslim" in the white house it does appear that Democrats could make effort and win that seat. Remember we have very little chance of winning the Senate in 2018 but the house is certainly a possibility. Democrats still have quite a bit of success in West Virginia 03.

I agree that Democrats have a real chance in WV-03. House races are easier to localize as the constituencies are smaller, and they don't filibuster or vote on nominees. Republicans need to take that seat seriously.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm hoping for WV-03 to be a pickup and keep WV-SEN, although if that happens the democrats are probably having a wave in their favor.

[jamestroll]

I'm hoping for WV-03 to be a pickup and keep WV-SEN, although if that happens the democrats are probably having a wave in their favor.

One Senate seat is more important compared to a single house seat.

On the other hand Manchin is not that much of a help to your progressive cause and Democrats actually have a shot in the House in 2018 not the Senate. So there is a good argument that picking up WV 03 is more important. Not saying I agree with that though.

Of course if Democrats lose too many seats it would be tough for them to retake the senate anytime soon unless Trump is re-elected and 2022 is a typical itch against the GOP.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I'm not sure if this is relevant but 23 Democratic Senators led by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren organized a rally in West Virginia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WQA3cAxfpE

[Vosem]

Trump needs to stay out of this race because he is going to lean to Manchin. Jenkins is an awesome recruit for the party so yeah. Jenkins is the equivalent of Todd Young in 2016 IMO.

Really? Considering how much West Virginia loves Trump, I would say this is a place where he could be useful even if his approval ratings nationally are doing poorly. The NRSC can just ask him to do several rallies in West Virginia and several in North Dakota before the election, with maybe a few stops in rural Missouri and the Appalachian part of Ohio.

[Kingpoleon]

Lucky for Democrats, because this means McKinley likely isn't running.

[Heisenberg]

Lucky for Democrats, because this means McKinley likely isn't running.

Jenkins is a far more formidable challenger than McKinley.

[Pandaguineapig]

Lucky for Democrats, because this means McKinley likely isn't running.

Jenkins is a much more formidable to win over the "democrat because my daddy was too" voters and he also represents the portion of the state that Manchin needs to win by a large margin

[Maxwell]

Lucky for Democrats, because this means McKinley likely isn't running.

Jenkins is a much more formidable to win over the "democrat because my daddy was too" voters and he also represents the portion of the state that Manchin needs to win by a large margin

agreed 100%. McKinley is a party hack who would've done worse for sure.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Just gonna post this right here:



Lean D.

[Maxwell]

Just gonna post this right here:



Lean D.

A poll almost two years out. Terrific!

[SATW]

Lucky for Democrats, because this means McKinley likely isn't running.

Why does this forum have such a hard-on for McKinley, as a statewide candidate? He's a great congressman but he's pretty old (turning 70 this year) to run in what would be a first term in the Senate.

He's also not very charismatic. Jenkins is clearly a better candidate who can make it a tougher race for Manchin.

McKinley is also a GOP-lifer. He was born and raised in the GOP.
Jenkins switched parties a few times and has had experience in both parties and can reach out to traditional democrats much more easily then McKinley.

[Figueira]

I'm hoping for WV-03 to be a pickup and keep WV-SEN, although if that happens the democrats are probably having a wave in their favor.

One Senate seat is more important compared to a single house seat.

On the other hand Manchin is not that much of a help to your progressive cause and Democrats actually have a shot in the House in 2018 not the Senate. So there is a good argument that picking up WV 03 is more important. Not saying I agree with that though.

Of course if Democrats lose too many seats it would be tough for them to retake the senate anytime soon unless Trump is re-elected and 2022 is a typical itch against the GOP.

Yeah, individual Senate seats are incredibly important regardless of whether it's possible for the Senate to flip that year.

Of course, Sherrod didn't say that one of those was inherently preferable to the other. They're both important.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh lord, this is going to be one of the interesting races of the cycle.

[windjammer]

Well,
Apparently he hasn"t declared yet, he's just considering right?

[peterthlee]

Move the race from likely D, Manchin 53-45 to lean D, Manchin 50-47.