Obligatory Montana Thread

[Blackacre]

How vulnerable/safe is Jon Tester at the moment? Which potential GOP opponents are likely to run against him? Is there a particular matchup that moves this race very far in either direction?

[JMT]

I'm no longer sure who will be the likely candidate against him. Prior to his appointment to Sec of Interior, Ryan Zinke was the likely candidate, but it seems unlikely that he would only serve in the cabinet for a year and then resign to run for Senate. So I think Zinke is no longer an option for this race. I think it's likely some of the candidates who don't receive the nomination for the MT-AL special election will run for this senate seat. I read an article that Greg Gianforte, the 2016 Republican nominee for Governor, is the frontrunner for the Congressional seat. Assuming he wins this seat, I think its unlikely that he would immediately turn to run for Senate right after winning this election, I think it's more likely Gianforte would run for reelection to the House.

So overall, I think some of the unsuccessful candidates in the special election primary may run. Perhaps Attorney General Tim Fox could run, but it seems more likely he will run for Governor in 2020. Recently elected Secretary of State Corey Stapleton seems like a possibility as well, he's run for many offices before and seems ambitious.

I think this race is a tossup. Tester is a strong incumbent, and Democrats can win in Montana (as Tester has twice, as well as Bullock). But a lot depends on the national climate and who his opponent ends up being... It is far too early to tell how vulnerable he will be almost 2 years out. 

[Figueira]

This race is probably the biggest tossup; if I had to guess right now I'd say Tester narrowly holds on.