Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018?

[SCNCmod]

Realistically, regardless of what you want to happen... What are the chances Dems take control of the House in 2018?

[GlobeSoc]

40-50% closer to 50% than 40%

[Bismarck]

Roughly 25 %, mostly because we could have a recession by then.

[Figueira]

Around 20-30 is a good estimate IMO. The Democrats are heavily favored to win the popular vote, but actually winning the House is a bit tougher.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

10% is far, far too high.  Maybe 1%.

[Heisenberg]

Gonna be bold and say 40%. I actually think 35%, but 40% is the closest.

[heatcharger]

Unlike 2012, 2014, and 2016, the path to a majority is actually pretty clear thanks to Trump. A lot depends on candidate recruitment though, so for now I'll say between 25% and 40%, but closer to the latter.

[jamestroll]

Gonna be bold and say 40%. I actually think 35%, but 40% is the closest.

Yea it is 35% to 40% chance at this early stage. A lot will depend on retirements, incumbents moving up, Democratic recruits.

I would not be shocked to see a Speaker Pelosi in January 2019 at all!

[Hindsight was 2020]

In between 40-60% basing that off of the likelyhood Trump will be toxic by 2018 making a path through Cal, NY, parts of MI, parts of FL, NJ, NV, CO, and NC

[Lothal1]

Lets put it at 1%.

[Xing]

It's definitely not just 1%, given the potential for Trump to drag down a lot of Republicans, but 40% seems a bit high to me, at this point. I'll say roughly 20%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Lets put it at 1%.

Which is still infinitely higher than the 0% chance they have to be in control of any other part of federal government after 2018!

[Vosem]

Between 25% and 40% -- maybe 1/3. What a lot of the Republicans in this thread are missing is that Trump's win reshuffled the map in enough ways that the post-2010 gerrymanders in a lot of states (TX, PA, GA) have effectively broken, and not to the advantage of the GOP. Trump's win reshuffled the Senate to be virtually completely safe for Republicans, the way the House was before 2016, but the House is back to where the Senate was prior to 2016 -- effectively Leans R, and definitely winnable for Democrats in a good year. Voted 40%, btw.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Lets put it at 1%.

Which is still infinitely higher than the 0% chance they have to be in control of any other part of federal government after 2018!

I've seen woodcutters that don't hack this hard.

[UncleSam]

Lol it is definitely not 40%, Republicans have 241 seats right now, incumbency is a huge advantage, and GOP control of state legislatures combined with the fact GOP voters are more spread out make the house tilt heavily right in any ordinary year. Trump would have to be disastrously unpopular for the GOP to lose the house. Not impossible by any stretch (though his base loves him so far and the fact liberals hate him really doesn't help Democrats at all in lean R districts they need to win the house) but not likely at all. 10-20%.

Gains are probably around 60-80% though for the Democrats, there's a half dozen California seats they can threaten quite easily and a handful of others they ought to be able to pick up in a neutral environment. 50th percentile result is probably D+10 in the house imo. 

[windjammer]

30% right now sounds good.

[Klartext89]

Zero. They are siding with terrorists against the American people and will get a record-low number of seats in 2018. Well deserved, traitors!

[Sven]

Let's say 45% and rising. Every out-to-lunch executive order ticks it up another 3-5%.

Zero. They are siding with terrorists against the American people and will get a record-low number of seats in 2018. Well deserved, traitors!

I know that it might be in bad form to start off my membership here with mudslinging, but I have to ask: how's that orange Kool-Aid, pardner?

[smoltchanov]

10 - minimum. 25 - maximum. Even with idiot Trump in White House...

[The Ex-Factor]

Around 30% at the moment, but with significantly more downside potential for Republicans than Democrats.

[Firestorm]

Gonna be bold and say 40%. I actually think 35%, but 40% is the closest.

This.

[Klartext89]

Let's say 45% and rising. Every out-to-lunch executive order ticks it up another 3-5%.

Zero. They are siding with terrorists against the American people and will get a record-low number of seats in 2018. Well deserved, traitors!

I know that it might be in bad form to start off my membership here with mudslinging, but I have to ask: how's that orange Kool-Aid, pardner?

You're in total delusion, what isn't unexpected giving your political compass.

[catscanjumphigh]

Things are too gerrymandered for Democrats to win the House.  They were supposed to win the House in 2016?  What do the Democrats think happened to that idea?

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's becoming increasingly possible since Trump's inauguration. I give it 50% odds. I haven't seen this much enthusiasm on the left since Obama's '08 campaign.

[smoltchanov]

Things are too gerrymandered for Democrats to win the House.  They were supposed to win the House in 2016?  What do the Democrats think happened to that idea?

Anyone who thought they were going to win it in 2016 was and is on some crack.

Then - a lot of people on different political forums (from DKE to this one) are on some crack