Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018?

[America Needs R'hllor]

About 10%-15% at the moment.

[Frodo]

Rather dangerous assumption to make that future elections are going to be free and fair, especially with Trump in office.

[MAINEiac4434]

25%, but only because of gerrymandering. If a recession hits and Trump has approvals in the low thirties by the midterms come around then it'd be a lot higher.

[Orser67]

Slightly less than 50/50, but only because Democrats have a map disadvantage.

I think some people are really underestimating how bad mid-terms get for the party in power. Here are the last four elections in which the party held the presidency and the House, with the number of House seats lost listed:

2010: 63 (control flipped)
2006: 30 (control flipped)
2002: gain of 8
1994: 54 (control flipped)

[Chief Justice Keef]

Rather dangerous assumption to make that future elections are going to be free and fair, especially with Trump in office.

We shouldn't be defeatist about it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Less than 10%.

[jamestroll]

Less than 10%.

lmao

[Maxwell]

low. I'm closer to Elections Guy than I am to anyone else on this.

[jamestroll]

I can not wait for the exiting night Democrats will have in the House of Representatives in 2018.

The 2019 state of the Union will have President Donald Trump with Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi behind him.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Things are too gerrymandered for Democrats to win the House.  They were supposed to win the House in 2016?  What do the Democrats think happened to that idea?

No one was expecting Democrats to win the House in 2016. C'mon.

[jamestroll]

I am not joking with you guys. God has personally told me that Democrats will retake the house of representatives in 2018 but the GOP will keep the Senate.

[jamestroll]

20%.

God would not lie to me!

Democrats will pick up 42 seats.

[jamestroll]

20%.

God would not lie to me!

Democrats will pick up 42 seats.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81044.msg1675098#msg1675098

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I was a troll in 2008. I am not a troll now man!

And yes back in 2008 I was a Hillary supporter. I was the exact Demographic she wanted white working class Democrat.

How ironic compared to her 2016 campaign!

[ElectionsGuy]

Less than 10%.

lmao

They have a good chance at getting really close to picking it up, but they have a much better chance in 2020 if they can build off the good results in 2018 (if that happens), and if they do that they can then control some redistricting and draw districts more favorably.

In 2018, picking up 24 seats is pretty unlikely. Not going to say it won't happen, but unlikely at this point, just because picking up every Clinton district (which realistically isn't going to happen, so they need some Trump districts as well) is too hard when a lot of these guys are incumbents that are way more popular than the president and aren't going to retire.

And we can't even assume that 2018 will be bad for Republicans.

[BuckeyeNut]

Between 25% and 40% -- maybe 1/3. What a lot of the Republicans in this thread are missing is that Trump's win reshuffled the map in enough ways that the post-2010 gerrymanders in a lot of states (TX, PA, GA) have effectively broken, and not to the advantage of the GOP. Trump's win reshuffled the Senate to be virtually completely safe for Republicans, the way the House was before 2016, but the House is back to where the Senate was prior to 2016 -- effectively Leans R, and definitely winnable for Democrats in a good year. Voted 40%, btw.

Call me pessimistic, fellow friend of Ohio, but those gerrymanders are still going to be very strong. We could also see much stronger voter ID laws due to Trump's pending investigation (even if the Secretaries of State Association vehemently denies much wrongdoing.)

I'd say somewhere between 15% and 33%.

[jamestroll]

At very least I think we can all agree that 2018 will probably not be a gop wave year.

I mean Trump would have to be super popular for the Republicans to have a shot in picking up 15 to 20 house seats and getting a super majority in the Senate.

And no I do not think the Democrats will automatically pick up every single Clinton-Republican district but there are opportunity districts such as WV-03 that can be picked up in the right circumstances.

[ElectionsGuy]

At very least I think we can all agree that 2018 will probably not be a gop wave year.

I mean Trump would have to be super popular for the Republicans to have a shot in picking up 15 to 20 house seats and getting a super majority in the Senate.

And no I do not think the Democrats will automatically pick up every single Clinton-Republican district but there are opportunity districts such as WV-03 that can be picked up in the right circumstances.

Now I'm going to have to say it. lmao.

[Virginiá]

Right now the most I feel comfortable with is 25%, but only because it's so soon and I'd really like to see a bunch of generic polls for 2017 first.

But given everything we know about Trump, his perpetually awful favorables/approvals, the GOP's (and his) plans and the growing backlash to it, I think the conditions are certainly there for a wave against the GOP. Not that it is guaranteed, but I have trouble seeing how 2018 is even a neutral year at this point.

That being said, taking back the House is quite a feat. I think it's slightly more likely that Democrats narrow it to a razor thin GOP majority, though I think a takeover is completely plausible. If I start seeing generic poll numbers for Democrats that resemble late 2005/early 2006, I'd feel comfortable saying they have a good chance at it. Other than that, I think the real action in a backlash midterm will be in the states, where Republicans are overextended and vulnerable, at least in terms of Governors. A good year for Democrats in the states will help pave the way for more frequent House majorities in the 2020s.

[The_Doctor]

Let's say 45% and rising. Every out-to-lunch executive order ticks it up another 3-5%.

Zero. They are siding with terrorists against the American people and will get a record-low number of seats in 2018. Well deserved, traitors!

I know that it might be in bad form to start off my membership here with mudslinging, but I have to ask: how's that orange Kool-Aid, pardner?

You're in total delusion, what isn't unexpected giving your political compass.

I don't think you understand how midterms work.

And no, it's highly unlikely the Democrats will lose House seats, given Trump's mixed approval ratings. Usually midterms are a function of a President's approval ratings (usually, not always) and the seats up. E.g, the Senate might lean GOP but the House is already at near historic highs for the GOP, since they're sitting at 240+ seats.

The long and short of it, the answer is "no." The Democrats won't lose House seats, odds on, and their Senate losses are probably minimized by the GOP occupying the White House.

In other words, your analysis sucks.

[Frodo]

Rather dangerous assumption to make that future elections are going to be free and fair, especially with Trump in office.

We shouldn't be defeatist about it.

No, but considering Trump isn't inclined to heed the courts puts the whole concept of checks and balances into question, how can anyone rule out him taking it to the next level?  Republicans, following in the footsteps of their Dixiecrat forebearers, have already concocted a new Jim Crow regime, which essentially amounts to the proposition that if anyone but a white person votes, it is 'voter fraud' by definition.  Who is to say they won't take the next logical step, especially with this White House?

[Figueira]

I think a lot of people think that the fact that midterms were bad for Democrats when Obama was in office means that midterms are always bad for Democrats. Kind of a bizarre assumption.

[The_Doctor]

I'd peg Democratic chances of majority control in the House at 25% barring Trump completely melting down (always a live possibility). I do think their chances of becoming the majority in the House at some point during Trump/Pence's Presidenci(es) will be high.

But I think the problems are not just redistricting. I think the Democratic Party needs to retool and figure out how to transition from being an Obama-Clinton wine track party to being a far more blue collar party that can reconnect in the crucial Midwestern and Southern districts that are turning blue (and then marrying them to the suburban districts that voted Clinton). So that'll take a few cycles.

Anyway, yeah, the Democrats are like 2-6 years away from a House majority. At which point, apparently, "Klartex" will have a meltdown.  

[JGibson]

At this rate, I believe that the Dems have a decent shot of retaking the House.

[tallguy23]

At this rate, I believe that the Dems have a decent shot of retaking the House.

Agreed. They need to run on "Trump is incompetent" and "he only cares about the rich" if things keep going the way they are.

[Littlefinger]

Right now I have it at 30%. The route for Dems is through the big states (CA, FL, NY, PA, TX).