Is this the best case scenario for Senate Democrats in 2018?

[Figueira]

fwiw this far out, it's probably best to make different predictions based on Trump's approval rating. So Trump at Hollande/PGY level approvals (probably impossible under the American system) would lead to a result like in the OP, with the possible additions of Texas and Utah if decent candidates were to run. Trump at around mid- to high-thirties would probably lead to an under-performance and mean that all the endangered incumbents can make a decent fight - no blanching - and that Heller and Flake are still underdogs. Bump his approvals up to his current mediocre numbers, and well, there will be a greater chance that people like Donnelly and McCaskill are sacrificed early, and any attack strategy on the SW Republicans will be cooled. If he is at positive approvals, then essentially every Trump state Democrat (except Stabenow) starts as an underdog at best, to the extent Brown and Baldwin might end up being triaged early; people like Kaine, Klobuchar and King should start to be unnerved if Trump approvals further climb to high 50's. If somehow he is at 60 percent or above (also probably impossible) then you would start to see a fillibuster-proof majority as quite likely, and if the GOP had put serious candidates in places like New Jersey, Delaware and Massachusetts.

This is of course assumes that the Trump brand continues to be intertwined with the Republican one - which may not be the case.

I think the other big factor is how real polarization is, and how strong the incumbency effect of Heitkamp, Manchin, et al. is. We haven't seen a Republican President midterm siince 2006, which was quite a while ago, so we don't know how willing people in those states are to vote for a Democrat if they don't have the Obama bogeyman to tie them to.

[jamestroll]

I think the other big factor is how real polarization is, and how strong the incumbency effect of Heitkamp, Manchin, et al. is. We haven't seen a Republican President midterm siince 2006, which was quite a while ago, so we don't know how willing people in those states are to vote for a Democrat if they don't have the Obama bogeyman to tie them to.

Yes. This is what I am most interested in seeing. I remember 2006 elections vividly. In fact, I remember them more detail than 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and even 2016. By 2018 it would be 12 years since a Republican President Midterm.

I think I saw someone say this:

2016=2000
2018=2002
2020=2004
2022=2006
2024=2008

That is a bizarre assumption.

I will stand by that 2018 will be a moderately Democratic year.