What wil the next Senate look like? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 06:07:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What wil the next Senate look like? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What wil the next Senate look like?  (Read 4359 times)
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


« on: February 03, 2017, 09:58:05 PM »

Here's a comparison, with the same Class 1, no less: in 1982, the GOP had come off of a landslide victory in 1980 (that Trump didn't have) with a charismatic president who was popular for most of his tenure and was a good communicator. (none of which applies to Trump) They only had to defend 11 seats, and the Dems had to defend 22. 22 Senate seats from mostly Reagan states, like Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida. In that midterm election, Democrats walked away with a net gain of one seat while the GOP broke even. I don't expect 2018 to be any harsher on the Democrats

Not to mention that in 1982, of all the Republicans who won reelection or picked up a seat, 7 races were pretty close, some very much so:

Missouri (John Danforth)   50.8% - 49.1%
Minnesota (David Durenberger)   52.6% - 46.6%
Nevada (Chic Hecht - Rep pickup)   50.1% - 47.7%
Rhode Island (John Chafee)   51.2% - 48.8%
Vermont (Robert Stafford)   50.3% - 47.2%
Virginia (Paul S. Trible Jr. - Rep pickup)   51.2% - 48.2%
Connecticut (Lowell Weicker Jr)  50.4% - 46.1%

-

@Eharding  - if you think it's impossible for Republicans to come up short in 2018 with that map, consider that Democrats won those races once before in the first place, and that a map that was supposed to be gold for Democrats last year didn't work out as well as it looked on paper. Sure, some Democrats in 2012 got real lucky, but now they have some more luck of their own by running as incumbents in a midterm of who will probably be an unpopular incumbent president. A large net gain is likely not in the cards for Republicans if what we've seen so far continues into the future.

For as bullish as people accuse us Democrats of being now, you guys sure have some hyper-optismistic views on your side, despite history showing time and again the pains an unpopular president inflicts on their party. They aren't running against an equally unpopular Clinton next time. There won't be a single target for deflection anymore.

-This entire post is projection.
Have you ever looked at your posting history and some of the things you throw up on this forum?  You're the last person who should be talking about projection.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2017, 10:48:22 PM »


You can call it what you want, but at least I'm going off of history and known issues with midterms and not just the idea that my candidate is the second coming of Jesus, and he'll bring unprecedented gains to his party because he's going to, uh, make America great again.

-A two-seat gain in the Senate in a midterm is not "unprecedented". What were you going off of here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225412.msg4844270#msg4844270
Florida was known to be trending GOP since 2000 when this was written.
First off can I say you are very obsessed to try and go back through posting history to try and prove your point.  Second, what relevance does that have to the conversation?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 12 queries.