IN-SEN: Brooks Out

[Heisenberg]

Not surprising, she got a decent spot in the House as Ethics Cop, and her colleague Luke Messer has already laid the foundation for a run. I've been reading on DKE and RRH for some time that Messer is already telling supporters in private that he'll run, and will make it official later.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2017/01/31/brooks-wont-challenge-donnelly-us-senate-seat/97282986/

[Kingpoleon]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

[SATW]

my dreams are ruined.


Luke Messer will likely be my preferred candidate now. (Unless Peyton Manning randomly decides to run lmao).

Greg Ballard would also be decent.

[Klartext89]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

Donelly is toast, unless Richard Mourdock is saving him again.

[BuckeyeNut]

my dreams are ruined.


Luke Messer will likely be my preferred candidate now. (Unless Peyton Manning randomly decides to run lmao).

Greg Ballard would also be decent.

Endorsed (Primary).

[Figueira]

Probably good news for Donnelly. He'll still have trouble getting re-elected though, since he only got elected in the first place by accident. He's the most vulnerable incumbent in either party, aside from Heitkamp (who is vulnerable simply because her state is so Republican; she should be a very strong incumbent otherwise).

[Sven]

I wouldn't underestimate Donnelly, folks. He's a perfect Democrat for his state, and I doubt the trumpeters can count on Hoosier goodwill for much longer, especially if they run Stutzman or have a repeat showing of the Cirque du Mourdock.

[jamestroll]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

Yeah... no. Also, McCaskill is more vulnerable than Donnelly.

Quit making bold predictions this far out. We have no idea what will happen in 2018.

[Heisenberg]

What's with people thinking Brooks is stronger than Messer? I think they're about equal.

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

No way. Even with Mourdock's rape gaffe Donnelly barely got 50%, and polling shows he's relatively anonymous in the state. Todd Young won by 10 points, more than expected, and Holcomb won the governorship in what I think was an upset. I think the state has a solid ground game, and with Pence as VP, he will do anything and everything to win back that seat for his party. If Republicans can only flip one seat next year, it would be this one, I think.

[Kingpoleon]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

"Looks like Madigan isn't going to run! With Duckworth, the race is Tilt/Lean R because Kirk is such a good fit for a state and 2016 could be a good year for Rs! Kirk has survived Democratic landslides before, guys!"

Also, I highly doubt Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill. Oops, I mean MO is Titanium D of course...

... I never said that.

[Vosem]

Really? I've always thought of Luke Messer a fairly strong politician, considering he was able to come within 2% of primarying an incumbent in 2010. He should be decently strong against Donnelly.

[publicunofficial]

What's with people thinking Brooks is stronger than Messer? I think they're about equal.

I could be wrong, but Messer strikes me as the typical politician you can't help but dislike. I think he would beat Donnelly, but by a very underwhelming margin (51-45 or so). If Trump implodes, I could see Donnelly coming close or keeping it competitive. Keep in mind that Indiana is prone to wild swings.

What TNVol said. Susan Brooks is very likable, relatively bi-partisan, a good government type. Messer isn't a walking disaster by any means, but he's definitely not as strong.

[Lachi]

lol@the denial from both sides. We have NO idea how the political landscape will be by the beginning of next year, let alone on election day, so we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions.

[Bismarck]

Dang she was our best realistic candidate for the seat. Messer is strong too though. The other name that is floating around is Todd Rokita, my own congressman who is one of the only republicans I don't vote for. Rokita doesn't even live in his own district, and is known by all as being terrible to his staff. So let's hope Messer gets it.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

No way. Donnelly is probably the most at-risk incumbent in 2018.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I don't think any serious candidates will challenge Donnelly.  As Republican as Indiana is, they don't mind voting for a Democrat if they like him.

[Bismarck]

I don't think any serious candidates will challenge Donnelly.  As Republican as Indiana is, they don't mind voting for a Democrat if they like him.

Well messer is already gearing up for a run. Indiana will vote for moderate dems but even Evan Bayh got destroyed here now. Donnelly could pull it off, and he is a good fit for the state and actually not a bad senator, but our state is too republican for him to win easily. He isn't that well known in the state.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

No way. Donnelly is probably the most at-risk incumbent in 2018.

Are you serious? Claire McCaskill is absolutely done. FINISHED.

No one knows that.  You don't even know who her opponent will be.

[Hoosier_Nick]

As someone in Brooks' district with relative amounts of respect for her, I'm happy she will stay in the house, partially because I recognize the fact that she would most likely be the favorite against Donnelly. But to be honest at this point it's very challenging to evaluate since we don't even know the candidates, but I'd think it's basically a toss-up against Rotika, Messer or whichever House Republican they would nominate. I know plenty of Republicans who have respect for Donnelly and would vote for him, so I don't think him getting some crossover appeal is too hard to imagine.

[Heisenberg]

As someone in Brooks' district with relative amounts of respect for her, I'm happy she will stay in the house, partially because I recognize the fact that she would most likely be the favorite against Donnelly. But to be honest at this point it's very challenging to evaluate since we don't even know the candidates, but I'd think it's basically a toss-up against Rotika, Messer or whichever House Republican they would nominate. I know plenty of Republicans who have respect for Donnelly and would vote for him, so I don't think him getting some crossover appeal is too hard to imagine.

I suspect many would be like me: I respect him and agree with him on some things, but I'd rather have a Republican since he's still a vote for Schumer and all the liberals to chair the committees.

[Cynthia]

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

If Ballard/Daniels want to do it, they already did it. Messer is definitely a good potential candidate tho.