Quinnipiac - NJ: Murphy +16

[Gass3268]

Murphy 45%
Guadagno 29%

Also lol Chris Christie:

Approve 17%
Disapprove 78%

Source

[houseonaboat]

Surprised Q didn't poll the primary. +16 is great and I doubt Guadagno cracks 40% in the election, but Murphy's spent a decent amount of money to still be unknown to 70% of voters.

[Tender Branson]

If Democrats manage to blow any of the 2 Governor races this year with Trump as POTUS, with Christie at 16% approval and McAuliffe at around 60% approval, they should be officially classified as "incompetent" and removed from all offices.

[Xing]

Hard to imagine Democrats blowing this race, but I don't think we can categorically rule it out, at this point.

[Fusionmunster]

Corzine 2.0 has this in the bag.

[Babeuf]

Menendez's approval rating is 51 - 32.

I really don't understand how he remains popular.

[Suburbia]

If Democrats manage to blow any of the 2 Governor races this year with Trump as POTUS, with Christie at 16% approval and McAuliffe at around 60% approval, they should be officially classified as "incompetent" and removed from all offices.

True. If they lose NYC Mayor/Comptroller, VA-GOV/VA-LT-GOV, and NJ-GOV, the Democratic Party will be in severe crisis.

[Nyvin]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election. 

[Virginiá]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats will obviously win both VA and NJ (and they would have won them with Clinton in the White House as well), but it still doesn't tell us anything about 2018 or 2020 or whatever.

[Virginiá]

Democrats will obviously win both VA and NJ (and they would have won them with Clinton in the White House as well), but it still doesn't tell us anything about 2018 or 2020 or whatever.

The Virginia statewide races won't, but the Virginia House of Delegates races might. Assuming it is the same map, steep losses in the HoD, akin to the later Bush years in VA, might indicate sufficient brand damage.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him likely because of an ad that was played on streaming services that parodied Catfish (which was big among college-aged women at the time).

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6oD-JCwCl0

[publicunofficial]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him likely because of an ad that was played on streaming services that parodied Catfish (which was big among college-aged women at the time).

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6oD-JCwCl0

Do you have a source on that incredibly hard to believe claim?

[Virginiá]

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him

I can't tell if you're serious or not about that ad, so I'll just assume you are.

I haven't seen any numbers that detailed on that race, and I'm not sure how one would know the actual cause in a case like this unless Cuccinelli was fastidious and generous in his polling, but if he did win 18-24 year old's I imagine it would be because Sarvis sucked up so much support from McAuliffe that it brought him down to a level that Ken could beat him on. Among 18-29 year olds, Ken got about as much as a standard Republican would among that group, suggesting Sarvis took almost exclusively from McAuliffe. So if that were the case, I don't find think the numbers would be meaningful - just a result of unfavorable circumstances.

On a side note, Ralph or Tom might find it useful to try and discourage a worthwhile Libertarian contender somehow because it's mostly taking from Democrat-leaning demographics.

[heatcharger]

I'm pretty sure that ad made me like McAullife more as I remember. I think it also encapsulates how incompetent the VA GOP has turned within the last decade lol.

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

I think this happened because McAullife and Cuccinelli were extremely high-energy candidates compared to Warner and Gillespie, the former of which seemed to be asleep at the wheel for the last few months of the campaign. Also, I think there was general voter fatigue by 2014, but I can assure you that there is none of that this year, which is important because Dems have a lot of chances for pickups in both state legislatures. Frankly, a lot of Republicans are on borrowed time in Northern Virginia and Richmond. I mean there are districts that Clinton won by 20+ that Republicans still hold.

Anyways, Murphy should win this easily.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him likely because of an ad that was played on streaming services that parodied Catfish (which was big among college-aged women at the time).

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6oD-JCwCl0

Do you have a source on that incredibly hard to believe claim?

Cuccinelli did win 18-24s 45-39: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf

As for why I believe that ad mattered in particular, message me if you want to know more.

[publicunofficial]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him likely because of an ad that was played on streaming services that parodied Catfish (which was big among college-aged women at the time).

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6oD-JCwCl0

Do you have a source on that incredibly hard to believe claim?

Cuccinelli did win 18-24s 45-39: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf

As for why I believe that ad mattered in particular, message me if you want to know more.

Well your claim is correct, but I doubt your reasoning. I think Sarvis taking 15% of the 18-24 vote is the more likely culprit than an internet ad.

[houseonaboat]

Menendez's approval rating is 51 - 32.

I really don't understand how he remains popular.

He's popular among Republicans and does really well in Bergen and Morris Counties IIRC. Also one of the last few true political bosses remaining in the country so he has an iron grip on Hudson County, which along with Essex is the main source of Democratic votes in the state.

[Gass3268]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Don't forget that we were less than a month removed from the government shutdown on election day in 2017. Obviously this was a big deal in Virginia with thousands of federal employees in NoVA and the Hampton Roads that didn't get to work for 2 weeks.

[Tintrlvr]

Menendez's approval rating is 51 - 32.

I really don't understand how he remains popular.

That's got to be close to his best approval rating ever, tbh.

[Tintrlvr]

NJ-Gov and VA-Gov should be pretty easy dem wins,  I can't see any situations where they aren't.   Even taking into account of it being an off year election.  

Something surprising I noticed was that VA 2013's turnout was actually more favorable to Democrats than 2014:

2013:




2014:



African American turnout was up 1% in 2013 over 2014's numbers.

Going by VA's election website, their off-off-year statewide elections are only marginally less lower turnout than the midterms, or in cases like 2014, not even that. The real low turnout ones appear to be the legislative-only election years, like 2015.

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/

Apparently, Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by a few points in that election because 18-24 year old white women swung wildly to him likely because of an ad that was played on streaming services that parodied Catfish (which was big among college-aged women at the time).

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6oD-JCwCl0

Do you have a source on that incredibly hard to believe claim?

Bad exit polling in an off-year election. Shocker.

[Figueira]

Phew, I was worried this was a primary poll for a second.

Also, people are seriously believing a tiny exit poll subsample from an off year? Do you also believe that Republicans won the Asian vote in 2014 and that British teenagers are transphobic? (I would list a left-leaning example of this but I can't think of one.)

[pikachu]

A primary poll would be far more interesting. I don't think Wis has a real chance, but ofc I might be wrong. Very least, it'd be better than knowing that a safe D race is safe D.

[houseonaboat]

A primary poll would be far more interesting. I don't think Wis has a real chance, but ofc I might be wrong. Very least, it'd be better than knowing that a safe D race is safe D.

Keep in mind though the primary vote really is going to be splintered among non-Murphy candidates. Lesniak will take away a fair number of Wiz votes and Jim Johnson has been drawing decent crowds as well. And Bill Brennan has a small following.