This is why I do not like rematches:

[jamestroll]

1) The candidate who lost the previous match can give the sore loser image vibes off.

2) The candidate can fail give voters a reason to vote for him this time.

This is why I do not think Applegate is necessarily a shoo-in to defeat Issa in 2018. Even if the circumstances will be possible.

I personally experienced this first hand when it was obvious that Doug Owens was giving a sore loser vibe and failed to give voters a reason to vote for him and boot Love. He could not really disqualify Love.

Strange things have happened in American Politics but I think Love could be quite secure even if Trump is very unpopular among Mormons as she never really embraced Trump at all. However her support still is stuck in the low 50s.

This article makes me sad: https://www.ksl.com/?sid=32236467

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[ElectionsGuy]

Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

[jamestroll]

Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

Yup! Look at what happened with Russ Feingold.

That is why I am not buying into the Jason Kander Roy Blunt rematch in 2022. If Kander is smart he would try to for governor in 2020 or even attorney general. Incredibly Josh Hawley is already creating controversy.

Long shot but I would be interested to see if Jason Kander could compete in MO-02 if open. Though he is from the other side of the state so that could obviously be an issue even if Representatives need not live in the district they represent.

[freepcrusher]

Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

Yup! Look at what happened with Russ Feingold.

That is why I am not buying into the Jason Kander Roy Blunt rematch in 2022. If Kander is smart he would try to for governor in 2020 or even attorney general. Incredibly Josh Hawley is already creating controversy.

Long shot but I would be interested to see if Jason Kander could compete in MO-02 if open. Though he is from the other side of the state so that could obviously be an issue even if Representatives need not live in the district they represent.

feingold would have won in a 2012 or better type of year

[publicunofficial]

The only time rematches really work is if the guy that beat you last time, has colossally f**ked up his time in office since the first election.

Names that come to mind:

Dino Rossi
Vincent Sheheen
Russ Feingold
Darcy Burner

Makes me more skeptical of the "Sestak would have beat Toomey" takes. 

[Xing]

I think you have a point, which is also why I'm skeptical that Mandel is the best candidate for Republicans in Ohio.

[publicunofficial]

No one is saying Kander would be guaranteed to beat Blunt in 2022, but who else could be an option? I don't think Blunt will lose if a Democrat is president, but if Trump is reelected, Blunt will probably be in big trouble (again). 

Perhaps Kander and Koster switch opponents.

[Zioneer]

1) The candidate who lost the previous match can give the sore loser image vibes off.

2) The candidate can fail give voters a reason to vote for him this time.

This is why I do not think Applegate is necessarily a shoo-in to defeat Issa in 2018. Even if the circumstances will be possible.

I personally experienced this first hand when it was obvious that Doug Owens was giving a sore loser vibe and failed to give voters a reason to vote for him and boot Love. He could not really disqualify Love.

Strange things have happened in American Politics but I think Love could be quite secure even if Trump is very unpopular among Mormons as she never really embraced Trump at all. However her support still is stuck in the low 50s.

This article makes me sad: https://www.ksl.com/?sid=32236467

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be fair, other than Owens, we only have about 2 or 3 other credible candidates, assuming no state legislators or County Council/DA types run.

Now that he's lost twice, he's no longer a credible candidate, and lobbyist Matheson is unlikely to run. Ben McAdams could run, but he seems content to be County Mayor, and maybe try for Governor in 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

To be fair with Feingold, most rematches don't end with the challenger losing by nearly 2 points less than the preceding time.

[Figueira]

Now that I think of it you're kind of right.

Regarding Kander, I hope he runs for Governor at some point.

[Cynthia]

Instances where rematches work:

Guinta/Shea-Porter
Dold/Schneider

[publicunofficial]

How we feeling about the Applegate/Issa rematch?

[Virginiá]

How we feeling about the Applegate/Issa rematch?

Wasn't Applegate just a some dude that the DCCC parachuted in for with money once they realized Issa was a lot more vulnerable than they originally thought?

I don't think the result of that race was specific to Applegate. The leanings of Issa's district is probably slipping out from underneath him and a stronger, better funded candidate might be able to finish him off in 2018.

[jamestroll]

How we feeling about the Applegate/Issa rematch?

Wasn't Applegate just a some dude that the DCCC parachuted in for with money once they realized Issa was a lot more vulnerable than they originally thought?

I don't think the result of that race was specific to Applegate. The leanings of Issa's district is probably slipping out from underneath him and a stronger, better funded candidate might be able to finish him off in 2018.

Exactly. From what I understand the GOP has been doing research on Applegate and found some questionable past activity. Maybe includes a restraining order but that is just memory. My feeling is that Applegate vs Issa could work out in a rematch if 2018 is a strong enough Democratic wave but it could end up closer to Love v Owens rematch in a neutral year. Though probably not as bad.

[Virginiá]

Exactly. From what I understand the GOP has been doing research on Applegate and found some questionable past activity. Maybe includes a restraining order but that is just memory. My feeling is that Applegate vs Issa could work out in a rematch if 2018 is a strong enough Democratic wave but it could end up closer to Love v Owens rematch in a neutral year. Though probably not as bad.

Yes:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-doug-applegate-allegations-20160913-snap-story.html

I remember this revelation being posted to this forum as well. At least some thought he was done for. Obviously that wasn't the case, but I don't think it is insignificant going into the midterms.

Applegate caught Issa by surprise, and in a situation like that, a weaker candidate can do better. Now Issa will have had 2 years to prepare, and the Democratic challenger needs to have less weak spots, decent campaigning skills and at least the ability to raise enough money to compete with the House GOP caucus's wealthiest member. That's just my opinion, anyway.