FL-13: Charlie Crist leads David Jolly by 8 in 2018 rematch

[ajc0918]

In the election for Congressional district 13 if the candidates were David Jolly and
Charlie Crist, who would you vote for?

David Jolly: 41%
Charlie Crist: 49%
Unsure: 11%

Link: http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2017_CD13_GEN_January30_Y5J2.pdf


In 2016 Crist defeated incumbent Jolly by 3.8%. FL-13 swung heavily to Trump but was still won by Clinton.

[Figueira]

Yeah, I think this one will stay Democratic.

[GlobeSoc]

Likely D

[Heisenberg]

Stuff I've read on RRH showed that Jolly is clearly getting ready to run for something soon. There is also a swing State Senate seat up next year that will be open, so he may run for that instead, or US Senate, but he'd lose the primary to Scott. I really want Changing Charlie to be done with, he's one of the biggest phonies out there. Even if his switch was in the other direction I'd still feel that way.

[Nyvin]

Crist will probably end up becoming entrenched in FL-13 during the Trump Era.

[publicunofficial]

Honestly Republicans probably have better candidates than Jolly.

[Vosem]

I thought the rumor was that Jolly was switching parties and running for a statewide row office as a Democrat?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would be funny if this became the next Dold/Schneider situation (ancestrally moderate R but gradually getting more left area that schizophrenically switches between a moderate R and a kinda-sorta moderate D), but it probably won't happen.

[Heisenberg]

Honestly Republicans probably have better candidates than Jolly.

Former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker should give this one a try. He was rumored to be going for a row office, but those races are filling, so this may be a better bet for him. He considered running last year, but decided against it.

[BuckeyeNut]

I thought the rumor was that Jolly was switching parties and running for a statewide row office as a Democrat?

Where does this idea come from?

[Donerail]

Crist will probably end up becoming entrenched in FL-13 during the Trump Era.

Deeply unlikely, but more for Charlie Crist reasons than anything else. He hasn't run a re-election campaign for any office since the mid-90s. He may stay a few terms in the House, but I can't imagine he becomes entrenched like Bill Young was.

Honestly Republicans probably have better candidates than Jolly.

Not particularly. Brandes might have the money to make it slightly competitive (though Crist would be heavily favored), but other than that the only candidate who could beat Crist is Baker, who has strong enough ties to St. Pete's black community to cut into Crist's base.

As for other candidates: I don't fear Latvala all that much, though he's been mentioned as a challenger—the heart of the district is St. Pete, and I can't imagine someone from north county winning it (same goes for Cretekos, Seel and others linked to the race). Peters also doesn't have the established ties to take on someone like Crist. Gualtieri could take a shot at it, I suppose, though he's never seemed that political a figure.

Former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker should give this one a try. He was rumored to be going for a row office, but those races are filling, so this may be a better bet for him. He considered running last year, but decided against it.

I don't think Baker will run. He's not a legislator at heart. He wants to be governor, but I don't see him taking out Putnam, and I'm not sure which of the row offices he'd fit into (though I could definitely see that as a path for him). I haven't heard any row office rumors, but he's been linked both to the 2017 mayoral election and the 2018 gubernatorial race.

[Heisenberg]

Former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker should give this one a try. He was rumored to be going for a row office, but those races are filling, so this may be a better bet for him. He considered running last year, but decided against it.

I don't think Baker will run. He's not a legislator at heart. He wants to be governor, but I don't see him taking out Putnam, and I'm not sure which of the row offices he'd fit into (though I could definitely see that as a path for him). I haven't heard any row office rumors, but he's been linked both to the 2017 mayoral election and the 2018 gubernatorial race.

He has been named a possibility for Attorney General and CFO, but DeSantis and Lopez-Cantera seem to be the frontrunners, respectively, for those right now.

[Donerail]

Former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker should give this one a try. He was rumored to be going for a row office, but those races are filling, so this may be a better bet for him. He considered running last year, but decided against it.

I don't think Baker will run. He's not a legislator at heart. He wants to be governor, but I don't see him taking out Putnam, and I'm not sure which of the row offices he'd fit into (though I could definitely see that as a path for him). I haven't heard any row office rumors, but he's been linked both to the 2017 mayoral election and the 2018 gubernatorial race.

He has been named a possibility for Attorney General and CFO, but DeSantis and Lopez-Cantera seem to be the frontrunners, respectively, for those right now.

DeSantis hasn't made any moves towards AG and seems content in the House. Haven't heard much on CLC for CFO, or anyone else really - it's a pretty open field for CFO. AG has been linked most reliably to Corcoran and Negron, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Dana Young took a shot at it too. DeSantis doesn't really seem to be in the picture.

[Cubby]

I thought the rumor was that Jolly was switching parties and running for a statewide row office as a Democrat?

He was on MSNBC a few nights ago and I was very impressed by him. He seemed moderate, sane, barely mentioned his evangelical beliefs. Don't know how he acted when he was in office though.

[Donerail]

I thought the rumor was that Jolly was switching parties and running for a statewide row office as a Democrat?

Where does this idea come from?

It's a Charlie Crist joke.

I thought the rumor was that Jolly was switching parties and running for a statewide row office as a Democrat?

He was on MSNBC a few nights ago and I was very impressed by him. He seemed moderate, sane, barely mentioned his evangelical beliefs. Don't know how he acted when he was in office though.

Indian Rocks First Baptist is certainly more Joel Osteen than fire-and-brimstone evangelism, so that's not surprising. He was fairly moderate in office, made his big thing Congressional fundraising reform. The area is probably the only place in Florida that could be described as ancestrally Republican, and Jolly played by the same playbook CW Bill developed: keep your head down and focus on the community. He had very good constituent service and was by all accounts good at his job. Against any other Democrat he probably could've held on.

[Rjjr77]

The fact that Crist is under 50% two months after being elected is silly

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^  The district is still swingy, the redrawing only changed it from Tilt R to Lean D. Crist's historic popularity helps a little, but not enough to make him completely safe.

[Rjjr77]

^  The district is still swingy, the redrawing only changed it from Tilt R to Lean D. Crist's historic popularity helps a little, but not enough to make him completely safe.

I get that but he was literally elected 2 months ago and he can't get over 50%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^  The district is still swingy, the redrawing only changed it from Tilt R to Lean D. Crist's historic popularity helps a little, but not enough to make him completely safe.

I get that but he was literally elected 2 months ago and he can't get over 50%

Part of it is probably people who are like "why are you polling me now, the election is more than 18 months away!!???!!!"  selecting undecided.